Energy Trends and Prices statistical release: 30 April 2026
Summary
DESNZ quarterly energy statistics for Dec 2025-Feb 2026 show renewables at 51.8% of major power producer generation, gas down 11% year-on-year to 35.5%, and nuclear down 11% to 11.9%. Primary energy consumption fell 3.3% (2.1% temperature-adjusted). Indigenous production fell 4.5%.
Why it matters
Gas generation declining while renewables rise past 50% confirms the structural shift in the generation mix, but nuclear's 11% drop highlights the baseload vulnerability as aging AGR fleet retires. The 4.5% fall in indigenous production tightens import dependency.
Key facts
- •Renewables 51.8% of MPP generation (Dec 2025-Feb 2026)
- •Gas generation down 11% year-on-year to 35.5% share
- •Nuclear generation down 11% year-on-year to 11.9% share
- •Low carbon share 63.7%, up 5.0 percentage points
- •Primary energy consumption down 3.3% (2.1% temperature-adjusted)
- •Indigenous energy production down 4.5%
- •Petrol up 17.7p/litre, diesel up 33.5p/litre (April 2026 vs March 2026)
- •Next release: 28 May 2026
Areas affected
Related programmes
Memo
What the numbers show
Renewables hit 51.8% of major power producer generation in the December 2025 to February 2026 quarter, up from roughly 44% in the same period a year earlier. That 16% year-on-year increase in renewable output is the headline, but the composition of what it displaced matters more.
Gas generation fell 11% to 35.5% of the mix. Nuclear fell 11% to 11.9%. Together, the two dispatchable sources that keep the lights on when the wind drops now account for 47.4% of major producer output, down from around 53% a year ago.
The low-carbon share (renewables plus nuclear) rose 5 percentage points to 63.7%. The fossil fuel share fell by the same amount to 35.7%. On the surface, this is the energy transition working. Underneath, the nuclear decline is not a policy choice; it is the AGR fleet aging out on schedule.
Primary energy consumption fell 3.3% on a fuel input basis, 2.1% temperature-adjusted. Indigenous energy production fell 4.5%. The gap between what the UK produces and what it consumes widened further.
On prices: petrol rose 17.7p/litre and diesel 33.5p/litre between March and April 2026. The diesel jump is striking, nearly double the petrol increase, and will feed through to haulage, agriculture, and anything that moves by road.
Trends
Renewables past 50% is structural, not seasonal. This is a winter quarter, historically gas-heavy. Renewables clearing half of major producer output in December to February, not a windy spring shoulder month, marks a shift. The installed capacity additions from AR5 and AR6 CfD projects are now large enough to dominate the generation mix even in high-demand periods.
Gas is being displaced on merit order, not by policy. The 11% fall in gas generation reflects near-zero marginal cost renewables pushing gas plant out of the stack more hours of the year. Gas CCGT load factors are declining. This has commercial consequences: merchant gas generators face fewer running hours and lower capture prices, which feeds back into Capacity Market bidding behaviour and new-build investment cases.
Nuclear decline is a countdown. The 11% drop is not a blip. Hunterston B closed in 2022, Hinkley Point B in 2022, Heysham 1 and Hartlepool are on borrowed time. Each AGR closure removes roughly 1 GW of firm, low-carbon baseload. Hinkley Point C is years from first power. Sizewell C has not reached FID. The gap between the old fleet retiring and new nuclear arriving is measured in gigawatts and years.
Indigenous production decline tightens the import margin. A 4.5% fall in domestic energy production, mostly reflecting North Sea decline, means greater reliance on LNG imports and interconnector flows. This is not a crisis, but it is a ratchet that only turns one way. Every percentage point of indigenous production lost increases exposure to international gas pricing.
The diesel price spike is worth isolating. A 33.5p/litre increase in a single month is unusual. If sustained, it represents a material input cost increase for logistics-dependent sectors and will show up in CPI within one to two quarters.
What to watch
Capacity adequacy as nuclear retires. Renewables at 51.8% and nuclear at 11.9% means the system is increasingly dependent on gas for the residual 35.5%, but gas running hours are falling. The Capacity Market must price the standby value of gas plant that runs fewer hours but remains essential for system security. If clearing prices do not rise to reflect this, expect plant closures and a tighter capacity margin by winter 2027/28.
CfD cannibalisation signal. Renewables above 50% in winter means more hours of very low wholesale prices. CfD generators are insulated, but merchant renewables and storage operators face compressed margins. Watch the next T-4 Capacity Market auction for whether battery and demand-side response bids reflect this price compression.
Import dependency trajectory. Cross-reference this 4.5% indigenous production fall with NESO's Winter Outlook assumptions. If NESO's gas supply margins assumed stable domestic production, they need revising.
Diesel as an inflation indicator. The 33.5p increase, if it holds through May, will affect the OBR's inflation forecast and could influence the timing of any further interest rate moves. Energy-intensive industries that hedged gas but not diesel are exposed.
Next release: 28 May 2026. That will cover the March data and capture the start of the spring shoulder season. If renewables stay above 50% into March, the annual share for 2026 is on track to set a record.
Source text
Energy production, trade, electricity generation and consumption statistics are provided in total and by fuel (coal, oil, gas and electricity). Energy price statistics cover domestic price indices, prices of road fuels and petroleum products and comparisons of international road fuel prices. For enquiries about these statistics, contact: energy production, trade, electricity generation and consumption - energy.stats@energysecurity.gov.uk energy prices - energyprices.stats@energysecurity.gov.uk 1. Energy production, trade, electricity generation and consumption Highlights for the 3 month period December 2025 to February 2026, compared to the same period a year earlier include: Primary energy consumption in the UK on a fuel input basis fell by 3.3%, on a temperature adjusted basis consumption fell by 2.1%. ( table ET 1.2 ) Indigenous energy production fell by 4.5%. ( table ET 1.1 ) Electricity generation by Major Power Producers rose by 1.4%, with renewables up 16%, but gas down 11% and nuclear down 11%.* ( table ET 5.4 ) Renewables provided 51.8% of electricity generation by Major Power Producers, with gas at 35.5% and nuclear at 11.9%.* ( table ET 5.4 ) Low carbon share of electricity generation by Major Power Producers up 5.0 percentage points to 63.7%, whilst fossil fuel share down 5.0 percentage points to 35.7%.* ( table ET 5.4 ) *Major Power Producers (MPPs) data published monthly, all generating companies data published quarterly. 2. Energy prices Highlights for April 2026 compared to March 2026: Petrol and diesel prices up by 17.7 and 33.5 pence per litre respectively. ( table QEP 4.1.1 ) 3. Contacts Lead statistician warren.evans@energysecurity.gov.uk Press enquiries newsdesk@energysecurity.gov.uk 4. Data periods and coverage Statistics on monthly production, trade and consumption of coal, oil, gas, electricity and total energy include data up to the end of February 2026. Statistics on average temperatures, heating degree days, wind speeds, sun hours and rainfall include data up to the end of March 2026. Statistics on energy prices include retail price data and EU comparative data for March 2026, and petrol and diesel data for April 2026. 5. Next release The next release will take place on Thursday 28 May 2026. 6. Data tables To access the data tables associated with this release please click on the relevant subject link(s) below. For further information please use the contact details provided. Please note that the links below will always direct you to the latest data tables. If you are interested in historical data tables please contact DESNZ: energy.stats@energysecurity.gov.uk Subject and table number Energy production, trade, consumption, and weather data Total Energy Contact: energy.stats@energysecurity.gov.uk ET 1.1 Indigenous production of primary fuels ET 1.2 Inland energy consumption: primary fuel input basis Coal Contact: coalstatistics@energysecurity.gov.uk ET 2.5 Coal production and foreign trade ET 2.6 Coal consumption and coal stocks Oil Contact: oil.statistics@energysecurity.gov.uk ET 3.10 Indigenous production, refinery receipts, imports and exports ET 3.11 Stocks of petroleum ET 3.12 Refinery throughput and output of petroleum products ET 3.13 Deliveries of petroleum products for inland consumption ET 3.14 Imports of primary oil and petroleum products by country of origin ET 3.15 Exports of primary oil and petroleum products by country of destination Gas Contact: gas.stats@energysecurity.gov.uk ET 4.2 Natural gas supply and demand ET 4.3 Natural gas imports ET 4.4 Natural gas exports Electricity Contact: electricitystatistics@energysecurity.gov.uk ET 5.3 Fuel used in electricity generation by major producers ET 5.4 Electricity production and availability from the public supply system ET 5.5 Availability and consumption of electricity Weather Contact: energy.stats@energysecurity.gov.uk ET 7.1 Average temperatures and heating degree days and deviations from the long term mean ET 7.2 Average wind speeds and deviations from the long term mean ET 7.3 Average daily sun hours and deviations from the long term mean ET 7.4 Average monthly rainfall and deviations from the long term mean Subject and table number Energy prices data Domestic energy price indices Contact: energyprices.stats@energysecurity.gov.uk QEP 2.1.3 Retail prices index: fuels components monthly figures Monthly and annual prices of road fuels and petroleum product Contact: energyprices.stats@energysecurity.gov.uk QEP 4.1.1 Typical retail prices of petroleum products and a crude oil price index (monthly data) International road fuel prices Contact: energyprices.stats@energysecurity.gov.uk QEP 5.1.1 Premium unleaded petrol prices in the EU QEP 5.2.1 Diesel prices in the EU