Energy trends and prices: March - May 2026

What the numbers show

This is a pre-release announcement, not a data release. DESNZ has confirmed that Energy Trends and Energy Prices will publish on 28 May 2026 at 09:30. No data is available yet.

The bulletins will cover monthly production, trade, electricity generation and consumption across all fuel types (coal, gas, oil, electricity, total energy), retail prices, EU comparative prices, and petrol and diesel prices. The reference period will run through Q1 2026 and into early Q2.

Trends

The previous Energy Trends release (March 2026, covering data through Q4 2025 and January 2026) showed:

- Gas generation declining as a share of the mix, displaced by record wind output through autumn and winter 2025. The question for the May release is whether Q1 2026 sustained that trajectory or whether cold spells and lower wind availability pushed gas back up the merit order. - Wholesale prices falling from their 2022-23 peak but still elevated relative to pre-crisis levels. The retail price data in Energy Prices will show whether supplier margins and network charges are passing wholesale reductions through to bills, or whether the gap between wholesale and retail is widening. - Renewable generation capacity continuing to grow, but the rate of new grid connections remains the binding constraint. Installed capacity and actual generation diverge when curtailment is high; the generation data will show whether curtailment costs are showing up as a gap between capacity and output. - Oil and gas production from the UK Continental Shelf continuing its structural decline. The production data will update the trajectory. Each quarterly release narrows the window on whether UKCS output is declining faster or slower than the OGA's central projections.

The EU comparative price data is worth watching. GB retail electricity prices have been among the highest in Europe, driven by policy costs (CfD levy, capacity market payments, network charges, environmental levies) layered on top of wholesale energy costs. The comparative data shows where GB sits relative to France, Germany, and the EU average, and whether the gap is narrowing.

What to watch

1. The generation mix in Q1 2026. The split between gas, wind, solar, and nuclear generation determines marginal pricing, system costs, and carbon intensity. A quarter where gas runs harder than expected means higher wholesale costs and higher emissions. A quarter where wind displaces gas means lower costs but potentially higher curtailment and balancing charges. The net effect on consumer bills depends on which cost dominates.

2. Retail price pass-through. Wholesale gas and electricity prices have fallen materially from their peaks. The Energy Prices bulletin will show whether retail prices are following. If the wholesale-retail spread is widening, that points to rising network charges, policy levies, or supplier margin retention. This is directly relevant to the Ofgem price cap methodology and to DESNZ's ongoing review of how levy costs are allocated across consumer classes.

3. Demand trends. Total energy consumption and electricity consumption specifically. Electrification of heat and transport should be pushing electricity demand upward, but energy efficiency measures and economic conditions push the other way. The direction of electricity demand growth matters for network investment planning, generation adequacy, and the economics of every support mechanism that recovers costs per MWh consumed.

4. UKCS production data. The production figures feed directly into energy security assessments and into the fiscal regime for oil and gas. Faster-than-expected decline strengthens the case for new licensing; slower decline reduces urgency. Either way, the numbers are inputs to the ongoing debate about the role of domestic fossil fuel production in the transition.

5. Timing. 28 May falls two days before the end of May, which means the data will land just before Q2 policy decisions crystallise. Ofgem's Q3 2026 price cap announcement will draw on these figures. NESO's demand forecasts for winter 2026-27 will incorporate them. Any surprises in the generation mix or demand trajectory will ripple through consultations and price control submissions over the summer.

No action required until 28 May. When the data lands, the generation mix split and the retail price trajectory are the two numbers that matter most for the current policy environment.