Forecasts for the UK economy: April 2026

Forecasts for the UK economy is a monthly comparison of independent forecasts. Please note that this is a summary of published material reflecting the views of the forecasting organisations themselves and does not in any way provide new information on the Treasury’s own views. It contains only a selection of forecasters, which is subject to review. No significance should be attached to the inclusion or exclusion of any particular forecasting organisation. HM Treasury accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of material published in this comparison. This month’s edition of the forecast comparison contains short-term forecasts for 2026 and 2027, and financial year 2025-26 and 2026-27, as well as medium-term forecasts from 2026 to 2030, and financial year 2025-26 to 2029-30. ### Table 1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Table 1 - 2026: Growth in GDP and its components (% annual growth) | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | GDP | | Quarterly GDP (QoQ %) | | | Private consumption | | Government consumption | | Fixed investment | | Business Investment | | Domestic demand | | Total exports | | Total imports | | Net trade (contribution to GDP growth (ppt)) | | Output Gap (as % of potential GDP) | | | | | | Forecasters and dates of forecasts | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | City forecasters | | | | | 2026 Q1 | 2026 Q2 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Barclays Capital | April | * | 0.7490850927283521 | | 0.2228793233271631 | 0.22110103619434884 | | 0.5083998233977649 | | 1.2345101513481227 | | 1.3810023950059813 | | - | | - | | - | | - | | -0.13169871283379875 | | - | | | | | | Berenberg | March | | 0.8 | | 0.2 | 0.1 | | 0.6 | | 1.9 | | 1.9 | | - | | 1.1 | | 1.2 | | 3.1 | | -0.7 | | - | | | | | | Bloomberg Economics | Dec | | 1.2 | | 0.2 | 0.3 | | 1.2 | | 1.5 | | 2.5 | | 0.6 | | - | | 0.8 | | 0.9 | | - | | - | | | | | | Capital Economics | April | * | 0.286990737686859 | | 0.09702315808817567 | 0.13149964901740818 | | -0.07456382224552369 | | 2.9913309613967582 | | 2.0766384499980752 | | -0.5114485660174137 | | 0.1688497799183126 | | 0.917973250882401 | | 0.532499549935501 | | 0.11201376601135994 | | - | | | | | | Deutsche Bank | April | * | 0.6670667363489979 | | 0.3 | 0.2 | | 0.5 | | 1.9 | | 1.2 | | -0.8 | | 1.1 | | 0.5 | | 1.7 | | - | | - | | | | | | HSBC | April | * | 0.8 | | - | 0.3 | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | 0.02949207364605222 | | | | | | JP Morgan | April | * | 0.5 | | 0.2 | 0.1 | | 0.4 | | 1.8 | | 3.2 | | -0.2 | | 1.5 | | 0.9 | | 1.5 | | -0.2 | | - | | | | | | KPMG | March | | 0.7 | | 0.32 | 0.2 | | 0.7 | | 2 | | 1 | | - | | 0.5 | | 1 | | 0.5 | | 0.1 | | - | | | | | | Natwest Markets | April | * | 0.7 | | 0.2 | 0.2 | | 0.5 | | 2.1 | | 0.6 | | -0.6 | | 1 | | 0.7 | | 1.6 | | -0.3 | | - | | | | | | Nomura | March | | 0.9083384119982663 | | 0.2 | 0.3 | | 1.1100785823663362 | | 1.707630647702385 | | 1.5496553292189352 | | - | | - | | 0.5850839962741716 | | 2.064569339564515 | | -0.5263094374746765 | | - | | | | | | Pantheon | Jan | | 1 | | 0.1 | 0.4 | | 1.2 | | 2.1 | | 1.4 | | - | | 1.2 | | 0.9 | | 1.4 | | | | - | | | | | | UBS | April | * | 0.6345771692316537 | | 0.2 | 0.2 | | 0.9712171380961365 | | 1.0123230106818593 | | 1.1667817179998208 | | - | | 1.0639120394444628 | | 0.8178583785648286 | | 1.9870549496908474 | | -0.4219012664720222 | | - | | | | | | Non-City forecasters | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | British Chambers of Commerce | April | * | 1 | | 0.3 | 0.3 | | - | | 1.6 | | - | | | | 0.8 | | 0.7 | | 0.6 | | -2.4 | | - | | | | | | Beacon Economic Forecasting | April | * | 0.7 | | -0.2 | 0.3 | | 1.5 | | 1.6 | | 1.5 | | - | | 1.5 | | 3.8 | | 5.1 | | -0.7 | | - | | | | | | CBI | Dec | | 1.3 | | 0.2 | 0.4 | | 1.1 | | 2.2 | | 2.4 | | -0.1 | | 1.2 | | | | -0.2 | | 0.1 | | - | | | | | | CEBR | March | | 1.103591157736572 | | 0.5338612630544581 | 0.3203724539354802 | | 1.2154957813603096 | | 1.524856408198172 | | 1.1153077613089035 | | -0.6697947842287499 | | 0.9681127027412639 | | 0.5850839962741716 | | 0.6128711364670858 | | -0.02344118853715199 | | - | | | | | | Experian Economics | April | * | 0.6 | | 0.44690903688369144 | 0.14527212052246607 | | 0.429307 | | 1.817578 | | 1.178655 | | -0.708863 | | 0.409067 | | 0.204841 | | 0.102027 | | - | | - | | | | | | Heteronomics | April | * | 0.6329031540208252 | | 0.3 | 0.2 | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | 0.02949207364605222 | | | | | | ICAEW | Jan | | 1 | | - | - | | 0.5 | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | | | | | ITEM Club | Feb | | 0.9 | | 0.3 | 0.3 | | 1 | | 2.1 | | 1 | | -0.2 | | 1 | | 0.1 | | 0.3 | | -0.08 | | - | | | | | | Liverpool Macro Research | Jan | | 1 | | - | - | | 0.9 | | - | | -1.3 | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | | | | | NIESR | Feb | | 1.3843 | | 0.3423 | 0.7094 | | 1.046 | | 1.7658 | | 2.3604 | | 1.6461 | | 1.2342 | | 2.0684 | | 1.5821 | | - | | - | | | | | | Oxford Economics | April | * | 0.3983574 | | 0.2053806 | 0.01305622 | | 0.2619781 | | 1.876227 | | 0.2001118 | | -2.779724 | | 0.2244803 | | 0.9063415 | | 0.3638284 | | 0.16644448541404042 | | -1.734114 | | | | | | OECD | March | * | 0.7 | | - | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | | | | | IMF | April | * | 0.8 | | - | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | | | | | Average of forecasts received in the last 3 months (excludes OBR, IMF and OECD forecasts) | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Independent | | | 0.7480672144306404 | | 0.24519725772667578 | 0.23559452664831687 | | 0.7111941735316683 | | 1.8081410112079561 | | 1.4285701635687809 | | -0.48237303502461637 | | 0.8977587015788598 | | 0.9990388081330382 | | 1.44299669171053 | | -0.39268402722248064 | | -0.5583766175692985 | | | | | | Received this month (marked *) | | | 0.639081690834724 | | 0.20656291984536637 | 0.19257741881118529 | | 0.5551486932498197 | | 1.7931969123426743 | | 1.3892432625559865 | | -0.8000050808596305 | | 0.8629232354847528 | | 1.0496682366052477 | | 1.4983788777362608 | | -0.48439271598505257 | | -0.5583766175692985 | | | | | | City | | | 0.674605814799413 | | 0.2155447201572599 | 0.1952600685211757 | | 0.5794590801794127 | | 1.8495327523476806 | | 1.5637864324692015 | | -0.5278621415043534 | | 0.9189659741946823 | | 0.8276144532151752 | | 1.623015479898858 | | -0.25848695634614216 | | 0.02949207364605222 | | | | | | Range of forecasts received in the last 3 months (excludes OBR, IMF and OECD forecasts) | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Highest | | | 1.3843 | | 0.5338612630544581 | 0.7094 | | 1.5 | | 2.9913309613967582 | | 3.2 | | 1.6461 | | 1.5 | | 3.8 | | 5.1 | | 0.16644448541404042 | | 0.02949207364605222 | | | | | | Lowest | | | 0.286990737686859 | | -0.2 | 0.01305622 | | -0.07456382224552369 | | 1.0123230106818593 | | 0.2001118 | | -2.779724 | | 0.1688497799183126 | | 0.1 | | 0.102027 | | -2.4 | | -1.734114 | | | | | | Median | | | 0.7 | | 0.2228793233271631 | 0.2 | | 0.6 | | 1.808789 | | 1.2 | | -0.5557242830087068 | | 1 | | 0.8178583785648286 | | 1.5 | | -0.2 | | 0.02949207364605222 | | | | | | OBR | Mar | | 1.1 | | 0.3 | 0.3 | | 0.8 | | 2.2 | | 1.9 | | -0.9 | | 1.3 | | 0.1 | | 0.8 | | - | | - | | | | ### Table 2 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Table 2 - 2026: Growth in prices and monetary indicators (% change) | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | CPI (Q4 on Q4 year ago, %) | | RPI (Q4 on Q4 year ago, %) | | Average earnings (Q4 on Q4 year ago, %) | | Sterling index (Jan 2005=100) | | Official Bank rate (level in Q4, %) | | Oil price (Brent, $/bbl) | | Nominal GDP | | House price inflation (Q4 on Q4 year ago, %) | | | | | | | | | | Forecasters and dates of forecasts | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | City forecasters | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Barclays Capital | April | * | 3.174189222779744 | | 4.584527220630363 | | - | | - | | 3.75 | | 85 | | - | | - | | | | | | | | | | Berenberg | March | | 2.5 | | - | | 2.8 | | - | | 3 | | - | | - | | - | | | | | | | | | | Bloomberg Economics | Dec | | 2.1 | | - | | - | | - | | 3.5 | | - | | - | | - | | | | | | | | | | Capital Economics | April | * | 4.564756129209745 | | 5.858571035934022 | | 2.3114522458421805 | | 81.05453356978147 | | 3.75 | | 80 | | 3.3184931741644323 | | 1.5458810232217512 | | | | | | | | | | Deutsche Bank | April | * | 3.4 | | 4.6 | | - | | - | | 3.75 | | - | | - | | - | | | | | | | | | | HSBC | April | * | 2.7 | | 4.603826181174889 | | 3.578454288062627 | | 85.4452 | | 3.75 | | 90.30830508474577 | | - | | 2.0201340026755332 | | | | | | | | | | JP Morgan | April | * | 3.7 | | - | | - | | - | | 4 | | - | | 3.4 | | - | | | | | | | | | | KPMG | March | | 3.1 | | - | | - | | - | | 3.5 | | 84.5 | | - | | - | | | | | | | | | | Natwest Markets | April | * | 3.8 | | 4.6 | | 3.2 | | - | | 3.75 | | 82 | | 3.6 | | - | | | | | | | | | | Nomura | March | | 2.535970231757482 | | 3.0613251515155 | | 3.0339190664062876 | | - | | 3.25 | | - | | - | | - | | | | | | | | | | Pantheon | Jan | | 2.7 | | 2.9 | | 4 | | - | | 3.5 | | - | | - | | 2 | | | | | | | | | | UBS | April | * | 3.699026117366813 | | 4.2 | | 3.0757940749837287 | | - | | 3.5 | | 86 | | 3.8273983172410153 | | - | | | | | | | | | | Non-City forecasters | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | British Chambers of Commerce | April | * | 2.7 | | - | | 3.9 | | - | | 3.75 | | - | | - | | - | | | | | | | | | | Beacon Economic Forecasting | April | * | 2.9 | | 3.5 | | 3.7 | | 83.7 | | 4 | | 81.9 | | 4.6 | | 1.2 | | | | | | | | | | CBI | Dec | | 2.4 | | 2.6 | | 2.8 | | - | | 3.5 | | 63.55975 | | 3.9 | | - | | | | | | | | | | CEBR | March | | 2.0272389221852847 | | 3.0244472656775603 | | 3.0903037493755683 | | 85.00334066684525 | | 3.25 | | - | | - | | 4.4584652359225485 | | | | | | | | | | Experian Economics | April | * | 3.652438838178577 | | 4.268669717411954 | | 2.9523234380292696 | | - | | 3.75 | | 80.2 | | - | | 0.087236 | | | | | | | | | | Heteronomics | April | * | 3.947687306226122 | | 4.603826181174889 | | 3.578454288062627 | | 85.4452 | | 3.75 | | 90.30830508474577 | | - | | 2.0201340026755332 | | | | | | | | | | ICAEW | Jan | | 2.1 | | - | | - | | - | | 3.25 | | - | | - | | - | | | | | | | | | | ITEM Club | Feb | | 2.3 | | - | | - | | - | | 3.5 | | - | | - | | 2.8 | | | | | | | | | | Liverpool Macro Research | Jan | | 2.3 | | 3.1 | | 3.5 | | 84.2 | | 3.25 | | - | | - | | - | | | | | | | | | | NIESR | Feb | | 2.199 | | 3.3473 | | 3.7118 | | - | | 3.25 | | - | | - | | -0.2483 | | | | | | | | | | Oxford Economics | April | * | 4.477396 | | 5.370724 | | 4.310319 | | 81.68478 | | 3.75 | | 90.20938 | | 2.978352 | | 0.6620306 | | | | | | | | | | OECD | March | * | 4 | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | | | | | | | | | IMF | April | * | 3.2 | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | | | | | | | | | Average of forecasts received in the last 3 months (excludes OBR, IMF and OECD forecasts) | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Independent | | | 3.18765015376132 | | 4.278708981039936 | | 3.3263707808278675 | | 83.72217570610445 | | 3.611111111111111 | | 85.04259901694915 | | 3.6207072485675744 | | 1.616175651610596 | | | | | | | | | | Received this month (marked *) | | | 3.5596244678134163 | | 4.619014433632612 | | 3.40075525944227 | | 83.4659427139563 | | 3.7708333333333335 | | 85.10288779661018 | | 3.6207072485675744 | | 1.2559026047621362 | | | | | | | | | | City | | | 3.3173941701113785 | | 4.501178512750682 | | 2.999936612549137 | | 83.24986678489074 | | 3.6 | | 84.63471751412429 | | 3.5364728728513617 | | 1.7830075129486422 | | | | | | | | | | Range of forecasts received in the last 3 months (excludes OBR, IMF and OECD forecasts) | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Highest | | | 4.564756129209745 | | 5.858571035934022 | | 4.310319 | | 85.4452 | | 4 | | 90.30830508474577 | | 4.6 | | 4.4584652359225485 | | | | | | | | | | Lowest | | | 2.0272389221852847 | | 3.0244472656775603 | | 2.3114522458421805 | | 81.05453356978147 | | 3 | | 80 | | 2.978352 | | -0.2483 | | | | | | | | | | Median | | | 3.1370946113898723 | | 4.584527220630363 | | 3.2 | | 84.35167033342262 | | 3.75 | | 84.75 | | 3.5 | | 1.5458810232217512 | | | | | | | | | | OBR | Mar | | 1.9 | | 2.9 | | 3.1 | | 84.6 | | 3.31 | | 63.1 | | 3.3 | | 2.7 | | | | | | | | ### Table 3 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Table 3 - 2026: Growth in other selected variables (% change) | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Real household disposable income | | Employment growth | | LFS Unemployment rate (Q4) | | Claimant unemployment (Q4,millions) | | Manufacturing output | | World trade in goods and services | | Current account (£bn) | | Size of APF purchases (Q4, £bn) | | Productivity (Output per hour) | | PSNB (£bn 2025-26) | | | | | | Forecasters and dates of forecasts | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | City forecasters | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Barclays Capital | April | * | - | | - | | 5.536336947653781 | | - | | - | | - | | -73.15416965517151 | | - | | - | | 142.701442437846 | | | | | | Berenberg | March | | - | | - | | 5.3 | | - | | 0.4 | | - | | -58 | | - | | - | | - | | | | | | Bloomberg Economics | Dec | | - | | - | | 5 | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | | | | | Capital Economics | April | * | -0.5518184204524177 | | 0.5078006303781831 | | 5.594765635457995 | | - | | - | | - | | -98.14236782768916 | | 480 | | 0.06058085419801696 | | 132.05443819824677 | | | | | | Deutsche Bank | April | * | - | | - | | 5.4 | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | | | | | HSBC | April | * | - | | 0.745029552759835 | | 5.281417389404527 | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | -0.24149798978265746 | | - | | | | | | JP Morgan | April | * | - | | - | | 5.6 | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | 130 | | | | | | KPMG | March | | - | | - | | 5.3 | | - | | - | | - | | -81.6 | | - | | - | | 117.2 | | | | | | Natwest Markets | April | * | 0.5 | | 0.4 | | 5.4 | | - | | 0.3 | | - | | -70.3 | | 488 | | 0.2 | | 133 | | | | | | Nomura | March | | - | | - | | 5.2 | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | | | | | Pantheon | Jan | | 0.7 | | 0.6 | | 5.1 | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | 0.6 | | - | | | | | | UBS | April | * | - | | 0.8 | | 5.4 | | - | | 0.4120656636338538 | | - | | -83.71469348378679 | | 508 | | - | | 133 | | | | | | Non-City forecasters | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | British Chambers of Commerce | April | * | - | | - | | 5.5 | | - | | -0.3 | | - | | - | | - | | - | | 102.3 | | | | | | Beacon Economic Forecasting | April | * | 0.9 | | 0.1 | | 5.5 | | 1.737 | | 0.1 | | - | | -91.277 | | - | | 1.1 | | 138.753 | | | | | | CBI | Dec | | 0.7 | | 0.6 | | 5 | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | 135.9 | | | | | | CEBR | March | | 0.7004499803934694 | | 0.6736886943752074 | | 5.250015189180029 | | 1.7064064681978404 | | 1.2576697225650246 | | - | | -101.89145784778707 | | 503.34133333333335 | | - | | 162.98662160488402 | | | | | | Experian Economics | April | * | -0.463808 | | 0.546463 | | 5.552734 | | 1.886135 | | - | | - | | -79 | | - | | - | | 115 | | | | | | Heteronomics | April | * | - | | 0.745029552759835 | | 5.281417389404527 | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | -0.24149798978265746 | | - | | | | | | ICAEW | Jan | | - | | - | | 5.3 | | - | | - | | - | | -79.9 | | - | | - | | - | | | | | | ITEM Club | Feb | | - | | 0.68 | | 4.9 | | - | | - | | - | | -55.3 | | - | | - | | 110.7 | | | | | | Liverpool Macro Research | Jan | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | -67.4 | | - | | - | | 81.9 | | | | | | NIESR | Feb | | 0.9548 | | 0.249 | | 5.4129 | | - | | - | | 3.2428 | | -85.99257444368 | | - | | 1.414 | | 93.9004 | | | | | | Oxford Economics | April | * | -0.2954308 | | 0.1333486 | | 5.63498 | | 1.908914 | | 0.7229806 | | 0.467636 | | -116.2783 | | 477.36129999999997 | | -0.049161799384955795 | | 140.84690199999997 | | | | | | OECD | March | * | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | | | | | IMF | April | * | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | | | | | Average of forecasts received in the last 3 months (excludes OBR, IMF and OECD forecasts) | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Independent | | | 0.24917039427729307 | | 0.5073054572975509 | | 5.391364808394491 | | 1.8096138670494601 | | 0.4132451408855541 | | 1.855218 | | -82.88754693817621 | | 491.3405266666667 | | 0.3203461536068209 | | 127.1109849416136 | | | | | | Received this month (marked *) | | | 0.017788555909516467 | | 0.49720891698723163 | | 5.473470946826736 | | 1.8440163333333333 | | 0.2470092527267708 | | 0.467636 | | -87.40950442380678 | | 488.340325 | | 0.13807051254129107 | | 129.7395314040103 | | | | | | City | | | -0.025909210226208845 | | 0.6132075457845045 | | 5.40125199725163 | | | | 0.3706885545446179 | | | | -77.48520516110791 | | 492 | | 0.006360954805119834 | | 131.32598010601546 | | | | | | Range of forecasts received in the last 3 months (excludes OBR, IMF and OECD forecasts) | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Highest | | | 0.9548 | | 0.8 | | 5.63498 | | 1.908914 | | 1.2576697225650246 | | 3.2428 | | -55.3 | | 508 | | 1.414 | | 162.98662160488402 | | | | | | Lowest | | | -0.5518184204524177 | | 0.1 | | 4.9 | | 1.7064064681978404 | | -0.3 | | 0.467636 | | -116.2783 | | 477.36129999999997 | | -0.24149798978265746 | | 93.9004 | | | | | | Median | | | 0.5 | | 0.546463 | | 5.4 | | 1.8115675 | | 0.4 | | 1.855218 | | -82.65734674189339 | | 488 | | 0.06058085419801696 | | 132.05443819824677 | | | | | | OBR | Mar | | 0.6 | | 0.2 | | 5.3 | | - | | - | | - | | - | | - | | 0.8 | | 132.7 | | | |