Energy trends and prices: February 2026

What the numbers show

This is a pre-release announcement, not the data itself. DESNZ confirms Energy Trends and Prices for February 2026 will publish on 30 April 2026 at 09:30. No figures are available yet.

February 2026 data will cover the tail end of winter, capturing what is typically the highest-demand month of the year for gas and electricity. The release will include production, trade, generation mix, consumption across all fuels, retail price indices, and wholesale price benchmarks.

The previous release (January 2026 data, published in March) showed gas generation holding a 35-40% share of the electricity mix through early winter, with wind output volatile and solar negligible. Retail electricity prices remained elevated, with the Ofgem price cap at £1,568/year for a typical dual-fuel household in Q1 2026. Wholesale gas prices had firmed through December and January on cold spells and tight LNG cargo availability.

Trends

Three things to look for when the data drops:

Gas dependency through peak winter. February is the stress test. If wind underperformed (as it did in several weeks of January-February 2026), gas-fired generation will have carried a disproportionate share of demand. The generation mix split will show whether the system leaned harder on CCGTs than in February 2025, and what that implies for carbon intensity and balancing costs. Gas dependency in peak months is the number that matters for security of supply arguments; annual averages obscure it.

Retail price trajectory. February sits within Q1 2026 under the £1,568 cap. The data will show actual average prices paid, which diverge from the cap depending on tariff mix and consumption patterns. With the Q2 2026 cap announced at £1,568 (unchanged), the retail price series should show relative stability. The more interesting figure is the gap between wholesale costs and retail prices, which indicates the margin absorbed by network charges, policy costs, and supplier margin. That gap has been widening.

Demand response to price. Total electricity consumption in February will show whether high prices are suppressing demand or whether cold weather overrides price signals. Industrial consumption is the sensitive margin. If industrial demand is falling while domestic demand holds, that confirms the pattern from 2024-25: households are inelastic, industry adjusts, and the burden of high prices falls on competitiveness rather than on bills.

Import/export balance. Interconnector flows in February will show whether GB was a net importer during the cold snap. Net imports during peak demand months raise the question of whether GB generation capacity is adequate or whether the system relies on Continental surplus that may not always be available.

What to watch

Price cap reset evidence. Ofgem uses wholesale cost data from this period to inform future cap calculations. February wholesale prices feed into the Q3 2026 cap methodology. If wholesale gas was elevated through February, the Q3 cap may rise, reversing the stability of the past two quarters.

Generation adequacy for winter 2026-27. The Capacity Market T-1 auction for winter 2026-27 clears in early 2026. February generation data provides the real-world check on whether cleared capacity was sufficient. If February showed tight margins or high balancing costs, that strengthens the case for higher de-rating factors or additional capacity procurement.

Network charging signals. TNUoS demand charges are set using triad periods, which fall in winter months. February typically contains one or two triads. The consumption data will show whether large users successfully avoided triads (suppressing demand in peak half-hours) or whether the system peaked regardless. Triad avoidance behaviour is a leading indicator of how network charging reform (the ongoing Targeted Charging Review implementation) is changing demand patterns.

Gas storage draw-down. February marks the deepest point of winter gas storage withdrawal. The production and trade data will show whether domestic production, Norwegian pipeline flows, and LNG deliveries were sufficient to meet demand without drawing storage below comfort levels. Storage entering spring below 20% would signal a tighter refill season ahead of winter 2026-27.

The data publishes 30 April at 09:30. Until then, this is a placeholder. The February numbers will be the most important single release of the winter series, because February is when the system works hardest and the gap between policy assumptions and physical reality is widest.