FES-2025

NESOSource: DESNZType: statistical publication41.4k words6 charts

Future Energy Scenarios: Pathways to Net Zero

November 2025 V.5

National Energy System Operator

2/FES 2025/

Supporting Documents & Data

Alongside the Future Energy Scenarios 2025: Pathways to Net Zero report,

we publish several associated documents and data sets.

FES Changes and Assumptions Summary of key changes and assumptions

FES 2025 Pathway Assumptions Log Detail on the assumptions we apply across our modelling

Modelling Methods 2025 Detail on the models we use to produce FES

FES Data Workbook 2025 A data workbook containing all charts and data from FES 2025

FES Data Portal Comma-separated variable (CSV) files for all FES output data sets

3/FES 2025/Contents

Contents

Foreword

Executive Summary

A New Era of Energy Transition

About FES

Future Energy Scenarios and Strategic Energy Planning

Decarbonisation to date

Benchmarking Great Britain’s pathway to net zero

Shaping Energy: The Consumer

Reducing energy demand and costs through energy efficiency

Harnessing demand side flexibility to benefit both consumers and the system

Switching to lower carbon fuels to drive decarbonisation and build security of supply

Powering the System: Electricity Supply

Starting the decarbonisation journey

Delivering new power infrastructure of all types beyond 2030

Generating clean power beyond 2030

Limiting costs from periods of high renewable generation

Fuelling the System: Gaseous Fuels

Reducing fossil gas usage

Decarbonising gas with biomethane

Producing low carbon hydrogen at scale and pace

Solving the low carbon gas infrastructure puzzle

Enabling the co-existence of hydrogen and gas

Crossing the Horizon: Carbon Capture and Storage and Negative Emissions

Understanding the need for carbon capture and storage

Using engineered carbon removals as the final step towards net zero

Using bioenergy with carbon capture and storage for carbon removals

Using direct air carbon capture and storage to provide a scalable alternative for carbon

removals in later years

Whole System Opportunities on the Route to Net Zero

Picturing the energy future

Exploring the choices in our pathways

Costing the pathways

Innovating across our pathways

Exploring the extremes

4/FES 2025/Contents

Pathway Insights

Whole System Emissions

Shaping Energy: The Consumer

Powering the System: Electricity Supply

Fuelling the System

Appendix

Future Energy Scenarios and Strategic Energy Planning

Glossary

Legal Statement

126

151

165

168

169

Revisions

Version

Date

Description

V.2

V.3

V.4

V.5

21/07/2025

Corrected policy ref on P145, updated Figure 12, updated storage values on

P21, 51 and 139

23/07/2025 Updated box on P43

18/08/2025 Commercial demand values updated to represent underlying demand and

exclude rail traction on P112-113. Unit correction on P111. Revision to Figure 30

21/11/2025 Updated Figure 46 on P104 and heat pump uptake data in Table 13 on P105

5/FES 2025/Foreword

Foreword

I am proud to introduce our 2025 Future Energy Scenarios: Pathways to Net Zero.

This is our fifteenth FES and our first since NESO was established in October 2024

as an independent, public corporation at the centre of the energy system.

FES provides an independent view of a range of future pathways for the whole energy system. It has

become an important publication in the energy sector and is the result of a programme of close

engagement with stakeholders across the industry, alongside our own extensive research and analysis.

This last year has been characterised by action, acceleration and ambition, with the government’s Clean

Power 2030 Action Plan setting out clear intent and pace. Progress is underway to deliver the infrastructure

required to support this, with the extensive connections reform programme facilitating the faster

connection of new supplies of clean, flexible power. We have also seen the Clean Energy Industries Sector

Plan as part of the Modern Industrial Strategy as well as the first revenue support contracts for low carbon

hydrogen and carbon capture projects in industrial clusters.

Our pathways in this year’s FES, however, show the scale of work that remains. Change won’t happen

overnight and success relies on matching the pace and ambition of clean power, while looking beyond

the power sector and beyond 2030. This means not only transforming our energy infrastructure but

enabling homes and businesses to switch to low carbon energy sources for heat and transport, putting

consumers at the heart of a new energy system and in control of the energy they use. Demand flexibility

will play an important role here, getting more from low-cost renewable generation and helping both

consumers and the energy system.

We are now in a new energy era. This era will be shaped by different waves of action. The last two decades

have laid the foundations for the energy transition and the remainder of this decade will see rapid

acceleration, followed by growth throughout the 2030s. All this will unlock the benefits of an affordable,

secure and clean energy system on the 2050 net zero horizon.

We need to consider each of these waves now. Success along the route to 2050 will depend on the

choices made today.

FES relies on robust insight and analysis. Our stakeholders are central to this, and I wish to extend many

thanks for your input over the past year.

Claire Dykta

Strategy and Policy Director

6/FES 2025 6/FES 2025/Executive Summary

Executive Summary

7/FES 2025/Executive Summary

Unlocking the benefits of a secure, affordable and clean energy system for Great Britain

requires bold ambition and progress in energy across all sectors of the economy.

Energy has always been a driver of progress in Great Britain. From the industrial revolution to the

commissioning of the super grid, Great Britain has a proud history of innovation. Now, as we enter a

smarter and cleaner energy era, leveraging this spirit of innovation and progress once again can unlock its

full potential.

Four waves will shape the route to a resilient, net zero energy system with greater energy independence.

Each will have its own defining characteristics and each will set up the progress for the following wave.

The initial foundation wave has already laid much of the necessary groundwork for the transition, such

as technology development. We are now in a period of acceleration, scaling up the markets for uptake of

new low carbon technologies and delivering clean power. The momentum of rapid action over the next

five years will enable a third wave, one that enables energy growth with the rollout of these low carbon

technologies and expansion of infrastructure. A final wave will then embed the transition to a long-term,

secure and clean energy system to 2050 and beyond.

The government’s Clean Power 2030 Action Plan sets a clear benchmark for the required ambition and

represents a critical milestone. While the next few years of the acceleration wave are critical, we must

also focus efforts as equally on beyond 2030, looking ahead to future waves and across the whole energy

We need to consider

each wave now.

Success along the route

to 2050 depends on the

choices made today.

system. All sectors now need to accelerate their efforts to

match the clean power pace and ambition.

Our Future Energy Scenarios: Pathways to Net Zero (FES)

explores a range of routes to net zero in 2050 for energy

demand and supply by considering the choices that can

be made and the uncertainties.

2050

2030

2040

Today

Foundation

8/FES 2025/Executive Summary

The critical enablers for success fall within four main areas

1Energy

efficiency

Energy efficiency can help manage demand growth and will

reduce the cost of energy for consumers. Policy and innovation

can enable efficiency improvements and adoption of measures

across all sectors.

2Demand

flexibility

Greater levels of flexibility offer greater opportunities to make more

efficient use of low cost renewable energy. Supply side flexibility

provides most of today’s flexibility and, while this must continue to

grow, complementing this by increasing consumer flexibility can

reduce the cost of other forms of flexibility, put consumers in control of

their energy use and reduce their energy costs. Making participation

effortless and fair would increase confidence in outcomes through

consistent positive impact and so is critical for success.

Infrastructure and energy supply

Switching to low carbon technologies

Delivering energy security and resilience relies upon an expansion

in infrastructure. Helping communities understand how they can

directly benefit from clean energy, while recognising the impact

of new infrastructure, will help support delivery of this at the

necessary pace.

Adoption of low carbon technologies will play a vital role in

the transition. Great Britain is an engineering powerhouse and

harnessing this potential can enable development of electrification,

carbon capture and low carbon fuels technologies.

The transition to the new energy era will deliver

clean energy but the benefits go beyond securing a

Robust action now can

decarbonised future. It will mean protection against

futureproof this energy era and

price shocks. It can offer energy security, national

resilience and public trust. It can also unlock local

economic growth and jobs.

unlock the opportunities of a clean energy system.

9/FES 2025/Executive Summary

Four distinct waves will shape the new era

The decisions for the future

need to be taken now to stay on track

10/FES 2025/Executive Summary

The waves of action

The government’s Clean Power 2030 Action Plan sets the pace for other sectors to

follow. Beyond 2030, this pace must continue to enable deeper decarbonisation

and growth, laying the groundwork for the 2050 net zero horizon.

Today

2030

2040

2050

Foundation The foundation wave.

Acceleration The acceleration wave

Growth The growth wave from

Horizon The horizon wave from

Much of the progress

from today to 2030.

2030 to 2040.

over the last two

Widespread action

Building on the

2040 to 2050

and beyond.

decades has laid

will define this period

momentum of the

This wave will complete

the groundwork for

through clean power,

acceleration wave,

the transition. Remaining

the transition. The

boosting energy

this will see the

emissions will be

development of key

efficiency, driving

mainstreaming of clean

reduced or removed to

technologies, for

uptake of low carbon

technologies, expansion

deliver a net zero energy

example, has built a

heating and transport,

of infrastructure and

system that is smart,

platform based on cost-

and demand flexibility.

transformation of

resilient and built for the

competitive renewables,

industry.

long term.

strong performing

electric vehicles and

emerging heat pump

offerings. This progress

has ensured a strong

starting point for the

waves ahead.

Delivering a clean power system in 2030 is an important milestone but there remains a great deal to do. The next few years are critical, both in making progress and in preparing for the waves to come.11/FES 2025/Executive Summary 11/FES 2025/Executive Summary

Only bold and sustained action in all sectors will unlock the benefits of

an affordable and secure, clean energy system. This means matching

the ambition and pace of the clean power goal, accelerating progress

across the whole energy system and looking beyond 2030.

This means action to:

Today

2030

2040

2050

Acceleration

Growth

Horizon

Energy efficiency

Implement policy to

Push forward with

Maintain momentum

accelerate widespread

efforts to improve

on energy efficiency

adoption of energy

efficiency of heat

measures and embed

efficiency measures

pumps and electric

optimal operating

vehicles over time

practices

2Demand

flexibility

Empower households

Rapid rollout of smart

Ensure effortless

and businesses

energy solutions, such

participation

willing and able to

as using electric vehicles

make informed

to support the grid

energy choices

and making heating

more flexible

Infrastructure and energy supply

Deliver coordinated

Build the strategic

Drive continuous

strategic plans

whole system energy

innovation to fully

across electricity, gas,

infrastructure at pace,

realise and maximise

bioenergy, hydrogen

considering electricity,

the value of a net zero

and CO2 transport

gas, bioenergy,

energy system

and storage

hydrogen and CO2

Switching to low carbon technologies

Implement policy to

Deliver mass adoption of

Further reduce reliance

encourage homes

low carbon technology

on unabated fossil fuels

and businesses to

and infrastructure to

switch to low carbon

provide certainty

energy sources

for industry

12/FES 2025/Executive Summary

Energy efficiency

Energy efficiency measures are crucial to managing demand growth. Driving

adoption of measures provides near-term benefits by reducing infrastructure

needs, cutting emissions and lowering energy costs.

Energy efficiency reduces energy use at all times of the day. Many of these measures, such as

thermal efficiency in buildings, reduce emissions in the short term while consumers remain heavily

reliant on fossil fuels.

Improvements to energy efficiency of buildings and appliances could cut electricity demand by

up to 127 TWh, an 18% reduction in demand from 694 TWh to 567 TWh in 2050.

Clearly communicating the benefits of energy efficiency solutions

will encourage efficient operating practices. Affordability of solutions,

balancing both upfront costs and long payback savings, must be

addressed. Increasing consumer awareness of the range of available

options will help boost uptake of higher efficiency products with lower

lifetime costs. Heating installers will play an important part in fostering

uptake of the most suitable efficient heating systems and insulation. Their

engagement will be an important enabler to broader public awareness.

18%reduction

(2050)

13/FES 2025/Executive Summary

Realising the benefits for homes, businesses and industry requires a renewed focus on energy efficiency across all waves of the transition

Today

2030

2040

2050

Acceleration

Growth

Horizon

Implement policy to

Push forward with efforts to

Maintain momentum on

accelerate widespread

improve efficiency of heat

energy efficiency measures

adoption of energy efficiency

pumps and electric vehicles

and embed optimal operating

measures to benefit all

over time to further reduce

practices to save money for

consumers.

the cost of energy for homes

consumers and manage

Driving widespread adoption

of current best-in-class

and businesses as electricity

expected growth in demand.

demand grows.

Continuing support for

efficient appliances. Innovation

Extending energy efficiency

improving industrial

bodies and industry R&D in

measures. This includes

efficiency. This includes the

efficiency will support this.

rolling out minimum efficiency

adoption of more efficient

Improving insulation for new

builds. This will be driven by

implementation of the Future

Homes Standards without

further delay.

standards, similar to those to

equipment alongside ongoing

improve light bulb efficiencies,

automation and digitalisation

to other appliances and

to reduce wasted energy.

heat pumps.

Unlocking opportunities

around more efficient uses of

transport. Reducing demand

through new technologies

such as autonomous vehicles

as well as low carbon options,

including public transport.

2050

2040

2030

Today

14/FES 2025/Executive Summary

Demand flexibility

Enabling demand flexibility empowers households and businesses, which can

lower consumer costs and accelerate the shift to a cleaner, smarter energy future.

A net zero energy system will rely upon flexibility in both supply and demand. Demand flexibility

benefits both consumers and the energy system, getting more from low-cost renewable generation.

It can offer households and businesses greater resilience against exposure to volatile prices and help

reduce energy costs. Greater uptake of demand flexibility also means less need

for infrastructure investment, reducing the deployment of energy storage.

Households and businesses could help reduce peak demand by up to 54% peak demand

reduction (2050). Smart charging could shift EV peak demand by 83%, while heat pumps could

shift their peak by 36%.

Demand flexibility as a choice. It is important to consider consumers or

businesses unable to manually shift energy use (for example, due to work

patterns, caring responsibilities or how they operate). Smart technologies

and automation can make it easier, but consumer trust that these tools

are reliable, secure and on their side is key. Access to demand flexibility

relies upon access to low carbon technologies and innovation in smart

energy tariffs and offerings.

54%reduction

by 2050

15/FES 2025/Executive Summary

To unlock the full value of demand flexibility, targeted action is needed now considering all waves of the transition

Today

2030

2040

2050

Acceleration

Growth

Horizon

Empower households and

Rapid rollout of smart energy

Ensure effortless participation

businesses willing and able to

solutions, such as using electric

with the widespread rollout of

make informed energy choices

vehicles to support the grid

user-friendly, smart technology.

through innovative and flexible

and making heating more flexible,

energy tariffs.

to help consumers use energy

Developing a clear strategy

for targeting different sources

flexibly while meeting their needs

and working around lifestyles.

Supporting innovation in

previous waves has built the

foundation for energy products

and services in 2050. These will

of flexibility. The Low Carbon

Providing consumers with

keep consumers engaged, informed

Flexibility Roadmap is a first step

seamless tools that integrate

and empowered by choice.

towards this.

Ensuring consumers can

access the value of personal

flexibility. Upgrading the energy

system (including rapid progress

into their daily routines. Through

simple, innovative tariffs, consumers

will have more control over how

and when they use electricity —

without needing to be tech experts.

Enabling consumers to connect

to innovative low carbon

technologies and services by

unlocking the full potential of

low-cost renewable energy.

of the Market-wide Half Hourly

Ensuring a flexible energy

Vehicle-to-grid alone has the

Settlement) would enable

system works for all consumers.

potential to supply 41 GW of

providers to use smart meters

This means fair and equitable

flexibility at peak.

to offer better deals based

access to low carbon technologies

on usage.

so that no consumer is left behind.

Increasing industrial and

commercial participation in

demand flexibility. This includes

shifting demand with thermal

storage for high temperature

heat requirements or cooling

demand in data centres.

2050

2030

2040

Today

16/FES 2025/Executive Summary

Infrastructure and energy supply

Developing low carbon electricity and hydrogen production, transport and storage

infrastructure at pace, alongside carbon capture and storage (CCS) infrastructure,

will offer greater certainty for industry and unlock opportunities for private

investment and economic growth.

A net zero energy system will look very different to today. It will no longer rely on fossil fuels and will instead

need to shift to low carbon fuels and homegrown renewables, transforming how we produce, store and use

energy. Electrification of demand increases the efficiency of the whole system, reducing overall system losses.

The increased linkage between electricity, gas, hydrogen, bioenergy and carbon necessitates a change in

thinking. Coordinated, whole system planning will unlock investment, flexibility and support a faster, more

cost-effective transition.

Total installed generation capacity in our pathways increases by 60-73% from today to 2030 and

approximately doubles from 2030 to 2050. Low carbon hydrogen production for energy in our pathways

increases from zero today to 98-325 TWh by 2050. Delivery hinges on ensuring that the enabling infrastructure,

such as networks and storage, are in the right place at the right time.

Establishing the necessary infrastructure at pace not only accelerates decarbonisation but also opens up

opportunities for economic growth, supporting new industries, providing certainty to support and attract

private investment, creating skilled jobs and powering thriving communities.

Infrastructure must be delivered at pace while carefully navigating public consent.

Success lies in getting this balancing act right. Strategic energy planning across

all vectors will enable this and reaching clean power by

2030 will set the pace.

CO2H217/FES 2025/Executive Summary

Delivering the right infrastructure at the right time requires coordinated action across all sectors and regions

Today

2030

2040

2050

Acceleration

Growth

Horizon

Deliver a clean power system

Build the strategic whole

Drive continuous innovation

and coordinated strategic

system energy infrastructure

to fully realise and maximise

plans across electricity, gas,

at pace, considering electricity,

the value of a net zero energy

bioenergy, hydrogen and CO2

gas, hydrogen, bioenergy

system. This includes whole

transport and storage to provide

and CO2 to provide access for

system flexibility and delivering

greater certainty on options.

decarbonisation, delivery of

around 25 million tonnes of

Optimising cross-vector

interactions through strategic

negative emissions and enable

engineered carbon removals

economic growth.

by 2050 to offset residual

energy planning. Considering

Continuing the focus on

emissions in the economy.

carbon alongside hydrogen,

reforming connections and

Continuously innovating

gas, electricity and bioenergy

planning. This will be vital to

across the whole energy

will provide greater clarity

ensure timely low carbon energy

system and entire value chain.

beyond delivery of the first

production capacity and provide

The speed and scale of delivery

industrial clusters.

access to networks.

necessitates innovation which

Clarifying the optimal use of

Building infrastructure at

infrastructure and end-uses

pace. Following through on

will, in turn, further enable new

products and services.

across gas, hydrogen and

strategic energy plans will

Delivering negative emissions

biomethane. This will mean

deliver the necessary electricity,

technologies. Innovation in this

greater certainty over prioritisation

gas, hydrogen and carbon

area will be crucial to achieving

of applications and how low

infrastructure.

net zero in sectors that cannot

carbon gases can work together

across the energy system.

Investing in low carbon

technology supply chains.

Taking action now will de-

risk delivery whilst boosting

economic growth, creating jobs

and strengthening resilience for

a fair and competitive transition.

Today

fully decarbonise by 2050.

2050

2040

2030

18/FES 2025/Executive Summary 18/FES 2025/Executive Summary

Switching to low carbon technologies

Adoption of low carbon technologies is a critical enabler of decarbonisation.

The timely transition from high emission energy sources for heat, transport

and industry is particularly vital to achieve emissions targets.

Adoption of low carbon technologies enables consumers to reduce direct unabated fossil fuel use

while reducing consumer energy demand by 47%.

Infrastructure investment and reducing the price of electricity are

crucial considerations for successful uptake of low carbon technologies.

Initial investment costs for residential consumers may prevent some from

considering the switch to low carbon alternatives, particularly without

short-term payback. Businesses also face similar challenges through

high capital costs along with uncertainty regarding infrastructure

access and system readiness.

47%reduction

by 2050

Insight from the Decarbonising Heat: Consumer Choice and Affordability survey

conducted for NESO by Public First can be found on the FES website.

19/FES 2025/Executive Summary

Switching to low carbon fuels at scale won’t happen on its own and demands early action and clear direction

Today

2030

2040

2050

Acceleration

Growth

Horizon

Implement policy to encourage

Deliver mass adoption of low

Remove remaining reliance

homes and businesses to switch

carbon technology and provide

on unabated fossil fuels,

to low carbon energy sources

certainty for industry where

providing opportunities for

and accelerate system-wide

investment cycles are longer.

reduced energy costs and

adoption by reducing the price

of electricity relative to gas.

Incentivising decarbonisation

of industry. Industrial emissions

emissions reductions of 221

million tonnes to 2050.

Reducing energy costs.

need to decline rapidly through

Completing the switch to

Reforming the electricity market

the 2030s by switching to

low carbon technologies.

and addressing high levies will

low carbon fuels and carbon

Careful management of

enable this.

capture and storage (CCS).

the final switchover from

This will be supported by clear

fossil fuels, without leaving

carbon accounting policies for

consumers behind.

industrial imports of materials

and products. This will need to

be in place within this decade.

EV car uptake is assumed to

accelerate to reach 100% of

new sales in 2030.

Increasing heat pump rollout.

Heat pump installation rates

require a 31% year-on-year

average increase until the full

phase out of new gas boiler

installations in 2035.

2050

2040

2030

Today

20/FES 2025/Executive Summary

Comparing our pathways Pathways are narrowing but optionality and uncertainty on the route to net zero remain. Our pathways consider the different ways Great Britain can reach a net zero energy system and interim

emissions reductions along the way. They explore the choices and uncertainty ahead in areas such as

the speed of technology uptake, the role of both electrification and low carbon fuels and the level of

consumer engagement.

Table 1: Pathways at a glance

Holistic Transition

Electric Engagement

Hydrogen Evolution

Falling Behind

Net zero is met through

a mix of electrification and hydrogen, with hydrogen mainly used around industrial clusters. Hydrogen is not used for heat except as a secondary fuel for heat networks in small quantities. Consumer engagement is very strong through adoption of energy efficiency improvements and demand shifting, with smart homes and electric vehicles providing flexibility.

A high-renewable capacity pathway, with unabated gas dropping sharply. Pathway sees moderate levels of nuclear capacity and lowest levels of hydrogen dispatchable power. Supply side flexibility is high, delivered through electricity storage and interconnectors. No unabated gas remains on the network in 2050.

Net zero is met mainly through electrified demand. Consumers are highly engaged in the transition through smart technologies that reduce energy demand, such as electric heat pumps and electric vehicles.

Pathway with the highest peak electricity demand, requiring high nuclear and renewable capacities. It also has the highest level of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage across all net zero pathways. Supply side flexibility is high, delivered through electricity storage, interconnectors and low carbon dispatchable power.

Net zero is met through fast progress for hydrogen in industry and heat. Widespread access to a national hydrogen network is assumed. Some consumers will have hydrogen boilers, although most heat is electrified. There are low levels of consumer engagement within this pathway.

Hydrogen is used for some heavy goods vehicles, but electric vehicle uptake is strong. Pathway sees high levels of hydrogen dispatchable power plants, leading to reduced need for renewable and nuclear capacities. Hydrogen storage provides the most flexibility in this pathway.

Considers a world where some decarbonisation progress is made against today, but at a pace not sufficient to meet net zero.

Used in downstream gas and electricity security of supply processes - it is important that we use Falling Behind alongside the net zero pathways to consider the full range of potential demand levels for possible remaining reliance on unabated fossil fuels.

With the current level of low carbon projects in the pipeline and increased policy ambition, we consider some level of progress in areas where there is increased certainty or progress.

BECCS Nuclear Renewable

CCS Gas Hydrogen Unabated Fossil

BECCS

Nuclear

CCS Gas

Hydrogen

Renewable

Unabated Fossil

BECCS

Nuclear

CCS Gas

Hydrogen

Renewable

Unabated Fossil

Pathway descriptor

Power generation (TWh in 2050)

Demand (TWh in 2050)

Hits net zero

Yes

Renewable

BECCS

Nuclear

CCS Gas

Hydrogen

Electricity

Bioenergy

Unabated Fossil

Gas

Oil

BECCSCCS GasNuclearHydrogenRenewableUnabated FossilElectricityGasHydrogenBioenergyOil638 TWhElectricityGasHydrogenBioenergyOil690 TWhElectricityGasHydrogenBioenergyOil761 TWhElectricityGasHydrogenBioenergyOil947 TWh21/FES 2025/Executive Summary

Pathway statistics

Table 2: Key statistics

Emissions

Annual average carbon intensity of electricity (g CO2/kWh)

Net annual emissions (MtCO2e)

Electricity

Annual demand (TWh)1

Electricity demand for heat (TWh) Peak demand (GW)2 Total installed capacity (GW)3

Wind and solar capacity (GW)

Interconnector capacity (GW) Total storage capacity (GW)4 Total storage capacity (GWh)5

Maximum Vehicle-to-Grid capacity (GW)6

Natural Gas

Annual demand, with exports (TWh)7

1-in-20 peak demand (GWh/day) Residential demand (TWh)8

Imports (TWh)

Hydrogen

Annual demand (TWh)

Residential hydrogen demand for heat (TWh)

CCS enabled hydrogen production (TWh)9

Electrolytic hydrogen production (TWh)10

Bioresources

Bioresource demand (TWh)

2024

10YF

118

407

2024

10YF

290

125

2024

TYF

743

5214

301

448

2024

10YF

2024

10YF

160

-25

-6

705

151

120

439

248

205

168

1382

120

216

2050

-7

797

149

122

384

226

150

398

2603

323

328

131

173

-37

-2

785

183

144

450

248

175

166

1671

155

191

187

559

107

317

180

149

640

4693

204

580

114

1 Customer demand plus on-grid electrolysis meeting GB hydrogen demand only, plus losses, equivalent to GBFES System Demand Total in

ED1 of data workbook.

2 Refer to data workbook for further information on winter ACS peak demand. 3 Includes all networked generation as well as total interconnector and storage capacity (including V2G available at winter peak). 4 Includes V2G capacity available at winter peak. 5 Excludes V2G. 6 Less capacity will be available during peak 5-6pm due to vehicle usage. 7 Includes shrinkage, exports, biomethane and natural gas for methane reformation. 8 Residential demand made up of biomethane and natural gas. 9 CCS enabled hydrogen is created using natural gas as an input, with CCS. 10 Electrolytic hydrogen is created via electrolysis using zero carbon electricity (this figure does not include hydrogen produced directly from

nuclear or bioenergy).

22/FES 2025/Executive Summary

Costing the pathways

Our net zero pathways see a shift away from operational spend, including significant

outlay on imported fossil fuels, towards upfront investment. We will also see a shift in

patterns of expenditure away from oil and gas towards the electricity sector.

Cost volatility, while not completely eliminated, will be significantly reduced in the net zero pathways

compared to a system that remains reliant on oil and gas.

There are a range of uncertainties and unknowns that will affect the cost of how Great Britain’s

energy system develops in the future. These include consumer choices, such as the level of consumer

engagement in demand flexibility, international conditions, such as the prices of oil and gas, and wider

uncertainties, including uptake of AI and other technologies alongside GDP and population growth. These

factors are likely to have a significant effect on the overall cost of the energy system in the next decades.

While these factors are not all within the gift of energy stakeholders or the government to control, our work

within FES aims to further our understanding of the range of available trade-offs, choices and levers that

can be influenced to impact overall cost. This work will then be further progressed in the Strategic Spatial

Energy Plan to design energy pathways that are economically and spatially optimised.

We are currently finalising our costing analysis of the FES 2025 Pathways and will publish a Technical

Annex, with methodology details and costings for each pathway, in 2025.

Each of the net zero pathways sees a sizeable shift in patterns of expenditure in the energy system – from

ongoing operational costs, such as fuel purchase and maintenance, to upfront capital investment and

from fossil fuels to low carbon electricity. As these patterns change, there is potential to support economic

growth, high value jobs and wider environmental and health benefits across Great Britain’s economy.

While there will still be some cost volatility in a net zero energy system (for example, spend on energy will

be higher in cold years or in years with less wind and sun), this will be materially reduced compared to the

existing fossil-based system. In particular, exposure to gas and oil price shocks will be much reduced.

How costs translate to consumers will depend on policy choices that we do not attempt to predict in this

report. Policy will also have a key role to play in keeping costs as low as possible and our pathways suggest

some priority areas for focus.

23/FES 2025 23/FES 2025/A New Era of Energy Transition

A New Era of Energy Transition

About FES

Future Energy Scenarios and Strategic Energy Planning

Decarbonisation to date

Benchmarking Great Britain’s pathway to net zero 30

24/FES 2025/A New Era of Energy Transition

Unlocking the benefits of a secure, affordable and clean energy system for Great Britain

requires bold ambition and progress in energy across all sectors of the economy.

Energy has always been a driver of progress in Great Britain. From the industrial revolution to the

commissioning of the super grid, Great Britain has a proud history of innovation. Now, as we enter a

smarter and cleaner energy era, leveraging this spirit of innovation and progress once again can unlock its

full potential.

Four waves will shape the route to a resilient, net zero energy system with greater energy independence.

Each will have its own defining characteristics and each will set up the progress for the following wave.

The initial foundation wave has already laid much of the necessary groundwork for the transition, such

as technology development. We are now in a period of acceleration, scaling up the markets for uptake of

new low carbon technologies and delivering clean power. The momentum of rapid action over the next

five years will enable a third wave, one that enables energy growth with the rollout of these low carbon

technologies and expansion of infrastructure. A final wave will then embed the transition to a long-term,

secure and clean energy system to 2050 and beyond.

The government’s Clean Power 2030 Action Plan sets a clear benchmark for the required ambition and

represents a critical milestone. While the next few years of the acceleration wave are critical, we must

also focus efforts as equally on beyond 2030, looking ahead to future waves and across the whole energy

We need to consider

each wave now.

Success along the route

to 2050 depends on the

choices made today.

system. All sectors now need to accelerate their efforts to

match the clean power pace and ambition.

Our Future Energy Scenarios: Pathways to Net Zero (FES)

explores a range of routes to net zero in 2050 for energy

demand and supply by considering the choices that can

be made and the uncertainties.

2050

2030

2040

Today

Foundation

25/FES 2025/A New Era of Energy Transition

The critical enablers for success fall within four main areas

1Energy

efficiency

Energy efficiency can help manage demand growth and will

reduce the cost of energy for consumers. Policy and innovation

can enable efficiency improvements and adoption of measures

across all sectors.

2Demand

flexibility

Greater levels of flexibility offer greater opportunities to make more

efficient use of low cost renewable energy. Supply side flexibility

provides most of today’s flexibility and, while this must continue to

grow, complementing this by increasing consumer flexibility can

reduce the cost of other forms of flexibility, put consumers in control of

their energy use and reduce their energy costs. Making participation

effortless and fair would increase confidence in outcomes through

consistent positive impact and so is critical for success.

Infrastructure and energy supply

Switching to low carbon technologies

Delivering energy security and resilience relies upon an expansion

in infrastructure. Helping communities understand how they can

directly benefit from clean energy, while recognising the impact

of new infrastructure, will help support delivery of this at the

necessary pace.

Adoption of low carbon technologies will play a vital role in

the transition. Great Britain is an engineering powerhouse and

harnessing this potential can enable development of electrification,

carbon capture and low carbon fuels technologies.

The transition to the new energy era will deliver

clean energy but the benefits go beyond securing a

decarbonised future. It will mean protection against

price shocks. It can offer energy security, national

resilience and public trust. It can also unlock local

economic growth and jobs.

Robust action now can

futureproof this energy era and

unlock the opportunities of a clean energy system.

26/FES 2025/A New Era of Energy Transition

About FES The FES 2025 framework

Dispatchable energy sources*

Electrification

Weather dependent energy sources*

*Includes electricity and

hydrogen production

High

Scale of consumer engagement

Low

Holistic Transition

Electric

Hydrogen

Falling Behind

Engagement

Evolution

Low carbon fuels

Scale of consumer engagament

High

Low

Future Energy Scenarios outputs

Electrification

Dispatchable

energy sources*

Dispatchable

Dispatchable energy sources*

Weather dependent energy sources*

Weather dependent Weather dependent CO2 energy sources* energy sources*

Weather dependent energy sources*

High

Future Energy Scenarios outputs

Scale of consumer engagament

Low

Weather dependent energy sources*

Holistic Transition

Scale of consumer engagement Electric Holistic Engagement Transition

Electric Hydrogen Evolution Engagement

Electric Engagement

Hydrogen Evolution

Counterfactual Counterfactual Hydrogen Hydrogen Evolution Evolution

Counterfactual

Low

Dispatchable

energy sources*

Low carbon fuels

Reliance on

unabated fossil fuels

*Includes electricity and

unabated fossil fuels

*Includes electricity and

hydrogen production

Misses Net Zero

CO2

Low carbon fuels

Future Energy Scenarios outputs

Misses Net Zero

Misses Net Zero Misses Net Zero CO2 CO2 Holistic Transition Holistic Reliance on Reliance on Reliance on Transition unabated fossil fuels unabated fossil fuels unabated fossil fuels Net zero is met in Holistic

Reliance on unabated fossil fuels

CO2 Electric Holistic Transition Engagement *Includes electricity and *Includes electricity and *Includes electricity and hydrogen production hydrogen production

CO2 Electric Engagement Electric Hydrogen Holistic Engagement Evolution Transition *Includes electricity and Net zero is achieved in hydrogen production Electric Engagement mainly

hydrogen production

Low carbon fuels

Transition through a mix of Low carbon fuels electrification and hydrogen,

CO2

with hydrogen mainly used

Hydrogen Counterfactual Holistic Electric Evolution Engagement Transition

Hydrogen Evolution Counterfactual Hydrogen Electric Engagement Evolution

Counterfactual

Hydrogen Evolution

Falling Behind

Counterfactual

Net zero is met in Hydrogen

Falling Behind considers a world

Future Energy Scenarios outputs

Evolution through fast progress

where some decarbonisation

through electrified demand.

for hydrogen in industry and

progress is made against

Consumers are highly engaged

heat. Widespread access

today, but at a pace not

in the transition through smart

to a national hydrogen

sufficient to meet net zero.

Reliance on *Includes electricity and unabated fossil fuels

hydrogen production

around industrial clusters.

*Includes electricity and Hydrogen is not used for hydrogen production

heat except as a secondary

technologies that reduce

network is assumed. Some

energy demand, such as

consumers will have hydrogen

fuel for heat networks in

electric heat pumps and

boilers, although most heat is

small quantities. Consumer

electric vehicles.

electrified. There are low levels

engagement is very strong

through the adoption of energy

efficiency improvements and

demand shifting, with smart

homes and electric vehicles

providing flexibility to the grid.

Electric Engagement has

the highest peak electricity

of consumer engagement

within this pathway.

demand, requiring high nuclear

Hydrogen is used for some

range of potential demand

and renewable capacities. It

heavy goods vehicles, but

levels for possible remaining

also has the highest level of

electric vehicle uptake is strong.

reliance on unabated fossil fuels.

Falling Behind is used in

downstream gas and electricity

security of supply processes - it

is important that we use Falling

Behind alongside the net zero

pathways to consider the full

bioenergy with carbon capture

Holistic Transition is a high-

and storage across all the

renewable capacity pathway,

net zero pathways. Supply

with unabated gas dropping

side flexibility is high, delivered

sharply. This pathway sees

through electricity storage,

moderate levels of nuclear

interconnectors and low

capacity and the lowest levels of

carbon dispatchable power.

hydrogen dispatchable power.

Supply side flexibility is high,

delivered through electricity

storage and interconnectors. No

unabated gas remains on the

network in 2050.

Hydrogen Evolution sees

With the current level of low

high levels of hydrogen

carbon projects in the pipeline

dispatchable power plants,

and increased policy ambition,

leading to reduced need

we consider some level of

for renewable and nuclear

progress in Falling Behind in

capacities. Hydrogen storage

areas where there is increased

provides the most flexibility in

certainty or progress. It is not a

this pathway.

‘status quo’ scenario.

Net ZeroNet ZeroNet ZeroNet ZeroNet ZeroNet ZeroNet ZeroNet Zero27/FES 2025/A New Era of Energy Transition

FES models energy supply (electricity, gas, hydrogen) and demand (residential, transport,

industrial and commercial) out to 2050. Our three net zero pathways explore credible

routes to reach net zero. They are not forecasts of what will happen, the lowest cost route

or what could happen at the margins of what is possible. They are developed in line with

the levers set in the framework.

Alongside these we produce a Falling Behind scenario and Ten Year Forecast (10YF). Falling Behind represents

the slowest credible progress towards decarbonisation but does not meet net zero by 2050. This scenario

provides a benchmark, highlighting the impact of delayed or insufficient action to decarbonise. The 10YF is used

for downstream security of supply planning. It represents our current view of the next ten years, taking account

of where we are today, existing project pipelines and action on policy, highlighting potential gaps between

stated ambition and delivery. This is the difference between where we are heading compared to where we

need to get to and highlights where intervention is most needed.

Since FES 2024, we have engaged with more than 84 organisations and 144 stakeholders to refine our

modelling. For emissions arising from sectors that fall outside our modelling, such as agriculture, land and

aviation, we use the Climate Change Committee’s (CCC) Balanced Pathway from its recommended Seventh

Carbon Budget, published in February 2025. These sectors fall outside the scope of our internal modelling due

to their emissions arising largely from non-energy sources or the international share of their emissions.

More detail on our modelling is outlined in our Modelling Methods document, published on the FES webpage.

Inputs

Outputs

Uses

Stakeholder engagement

Policy and targets

External technical data

Economic data

FES analysis and insight

Strategic Energy Planning

Pathways, Falling Behind and Ten Year Forecast of: ● Energy demand ● Electricity supply ● Gas supply ● Hydrogen supply ● Bioenergy supply ● Emissions

Markets

Security of supply

Operability

Strategic insights and advisory

Private sector and energy industry

££N28/FES 2025/A New Era of Energy Transition

Future Energy Scenarios and Strategic Energy Planning

FES 2025 provides an independent view of how energy demand, supply, flexibility and emissions could evolve

from today to 2050 on the route to net zero. It remains an important input for strategic planning to cover

longer term uncertainty when developing and assessing onshore electricity, gas and hydrogen infrastructure.

Public

For further information, refer to page 165.

Strategic spatial energy plan

Map potential electricity and hydrogen generation and storage infrastructure for GB

Centralised strategic network plan

alignment

Develop and assess onshore and offshore electricity transmission, onshore gas transmission, and hydrogen infrastructure

Regional energy strategic planner

Work across Wales, Scotland and English regions to develop whole system, cross-vector regional energy plans at a distribution network level, with input from local actors

Future energy scenarios

Zero carbon operations

Credible supply and demand scenarios

Ensure a zero-carbon energy system can be operated once assets are in place

29/FES 2025/A New Era of Energy Transition

Decarbonisation to date

Our pathways show that a net zero energy system is possible with timely and

coordinated action. Challenges remain but, with the right investment, planning and

public engagement, the transition can secure a decarbonised energy system while

unlocking wider economic and social benefits.

Electricity is the fifth largest sector for emissions and has been a major driver of decarbonisation to date. Other sectors must now pick up the pace.

Decarbonisation of the power sector has driven most of the progress on emissions reductions to date and,

as more sectors electrify, low carbon electricity will continue to enable widespread emissions reduction

across Great Britain. However, between now and 2035, around 85% of emissions reductions must come

from outside the power generation sector.

Electricityemissions have fallen significantly since 1990Industrial Heat, Waste andFuel Supply emissions have all steadily declined since 1990Aviation (incl. intl.)emissions have increased since 1990Road and RailandResidential Heatrequire significant near term emissions reductions beyond historical rates of progress0501001502002501990199520002005201020152020MtCO2e30/FES 2025/A New Era of Energy Transition

Benchmarking Great Britain’s pathway to net zero

Rapid and deep decarbonisation is required across all sectors starting now if we are to

achieve carbon budgets and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

Nationally Determined Contributions

Carbon budgets

How does FES benchmark against NDCs

As part of the Paris Agreement, the UK

Carbon budgets are a legally binding

and carbon budgets?

submits an NDC emissions reduction

cap on cumulative UK greenhouse gas

FES considers the decarbonisation of Great

target to the secretariat of the United

emissions over five-year periods, set

Britain’s energy system. Carbon budgets

Nations Framework Convention on

12 years in advance. The CCC presents

and NDCs are scoped to cover UK-wide

Climate Change (UNFCCC) every five

independent advice to government

emissions, with NDCs also including Crown

years. The UK has submitted an NDC for

on the size of each carbon budget

Dependencies but excluding international

2030 and 2035.

required to maintain sufficient progress

aviation and shipping emissions. When

towards net zero. The government then

evaluating our pathways against NDCs

decides whether to adopt this advice

and carbon budgets, we assume Northern

as a legally binding target. In February

Ireland’s emissions in energy sectors

2025, the CCC delivered its advice for

follow the trajectory set out in the CCC’s

the recommended Seventh Carbon

Northern Ireland’s Fourth Carbon Budget

Budget (2038-2042). The government

report (March 2025). For UK-wide emissions

will decide by June 2026 at what level to

not modelled in FES we use the CCC’s

set the Seventh Carbon Budget.

recommended Seventh Carbon Budget

Balanced Pathway. The only exception to

this is the waste sector, where we model

energy from waste as a subset of the

CCC’s waste sector.

All pathways achieve the Fourth and Fifth Carbon Budgets if efforts are accelerated. However, these were set

under the Climate Change Act 2008’s initial target of an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050,

relative to 1990 levels.

The Sixth Carbon Budget was the first carbon budget set with the net zero target in sight and the first to be

set following the 2019 amendment to the Climate Change Act. This updated the 80% target to one of net

zero greenhouse gas emissions in 2050. Holistic Transition and Electric Engagement both achieve the Sixth

Carbon Budget. Deep decarbonisation efforts are needed now across all sectors to achieve this and to

make headway towards the recommended Seventh Carbon Budget.

Emissions throughout the Sixth Carbon Budget period have an even more challenging position than

modelled in FES 2024. We have adopted assumptions in line with recent trends for future demand for

gas heating, with a third of suppressed heating demand from the energy price crisis having returned

in 2024. We have also used revised future emissions profiles from non-energy sectors from the CCC’s

recommended Seventh Carbon Budget’s Balanced Pathway. These include lower net greenhouse gas

removals over the next decade from the forestry sector. These factors, and other smaller changes, make

achieving the Sixth Carbon Budget even more challenging compared to FES 2024. However, the fact that

two pathways achieve the Sixth Carbon Budget, with differing assumptions and technologies, demonstrate

it is an achievable goal with some choices over the precise pathway.

Some additional actions would be required for Hydrogen Evolution to achieve the Sixth Carbon Budget. These

could include some or all of the following: higher levels of engineered carbon removals, such as bioenergy

31/FES 2025/A New Era of Energy Transition

with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), lower heating emissions (for instance, due to milder winters in the

2030s as a result of climate change) or taking steps to further reduce emissions in sectors that fall outside

our modelling, such as agriculture or aviation. As we need to explore a range of BECCS deployment levels in

our pathways, they have not been increased solely to achieve the targets in Hydrogen Evolution.

The CCC provided advice on the recommended level of the Seventh Carbon Budget (2038-42) in February

Government will make a decision on the level at which to set the Seventh Carbon Budget by June

Hydrogen Evolution misses the CCC’s recommended level for the Seventh Carbon Budget for similar

reasons to why it misses the Sixth Carbon Budget. As with the Sixth Carbon Budget, similar actions could be

applied to bring Hydrogen Evolution towards the recommended level of the Seventh Carbon Budget, such

as increased use of engineered carbon removals.

The Sixth Carbon Budget is the first carbon budget set after the net zero target and presents a

significant challenge on the route to net zero. The groundwork must be laid now to meet this.

As with FES 2024, Holistic Transition is the only pathway achieving the 2030 NDC. Both Electric Engagement

and Hydrogen Evolution miss this target by 12 MtCO2e. Holistic Transition achieves this target through

more rapid use of different decarbonisation approaches: biomethane injection into gas grids, carbon

capture and storage (CCS) in industry and energy from waste and higher levels of biofuel blending in road

transport fuels in 2030 instead of 2032 under the renewable transport fuel obligation.

In early 2025, the government set the 2035 NDC at an 81% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions

compared to 1990 levels. Holistic Transition is the only pathway that meets this. Electric Engagement misses

this target by 6 MtCO2e and Hydrogen Evolution misses it by 17 MtCO2e. The reasons behind the larger gap

in Hydrogen Evolution are similar to why it misses the Sixth Carbon Budget. Larger, quicker deployment of

engineered carbon removals such as BECCS in Hydrogen Evolution would help narrow the gap to the 2035

1,936 1,476 925 508 227 447 42 27 1,942 1,514 963 522 221 409 4 13 1,943 1,523 1,020 594 220 400 1,995 1,823 1,536 1,308 168 101 - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500Fourth Carbon Budget2023-27Fifth Carbon Budget2028-32Sixth Carbon Budget2033-37Seventh Carbon Budget2038-42 (advisory only)MtCO2e Holistic Transition Electric Engagement Hydrogen Evolution Falling BehindHydrogen Evolution and the Falling Behindbothexceed the Sixth Carbon Budget and the recommended level of the Seventh Carbon Budget.The shaded area and numberabove each bar are the remaining Carbon Budget in each pathway.32/FES 2025/A New Era of Energy Transition

NDC to one more like that seen in the Electric Engagement pathway. Additional drivers for Holistic Transition

meeting the 2035 NDC are similar to why it achieves 2030 NDC: higher utilisation of biomethane and a

more rapid use of CCS in industry and energy from waste.

While the NDCs are not legally binding targets, they do reflect important benchmarks towards emissions

reductions. Our pathways explore a range of possibilities but do not represent the only routes forward.

Only one pathway meets both NDCs, reinforcing that pace is required across all sectors to rapidly

reduce emissions.

The 2030 NDC reflects a 68% reduction in territorial greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990

levels. As of the end of 2023 (latest historical final figures), we have achieved a 53% reduction.

Falling BehindIn Falling Behind, emissions fall to 22% of 1990 levels by 2050.2030 NDC2035 NDCTen Year Forecast01002003004005002020202520302035204020452050MtCO2eOnly Holistic Transition meets the 2030 and 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets.NDCs exclude IAS but include all UK crown dependency emissions. In-scope emissions are shown in the bars.UK emissions over time, including international aviation and shipping (IAS), are shown in the solid lines.Holistic TransitionElectric EngagementHydrogen Evolution33/FES 2025/A New Era of Energy Transition

All sectors must continually reduce their emissions almost every year from 2025.

This heatmap shows percentage year-on-year changes in emissions, relative to 1990 levels.

Data from 2025 onwards uses Holistic Transition.

CS)

Road Transport and Rail Electricity (excl. BEC Industrial Prcoess Fuel Supply Agriculture Shipping F-gases Aviation Waste Heat

The only year since 1990

where every sector has

reduced their emissions is

2020, due to COVID.

There were significant

emission swings during

and after COVID, for

example in aviation.

Pink corresponds to where

sector emissions are higher

than the previous year.

Blue corresponds to where

sector emissions are lower

than the previous year.

A whole system, whole economy ambition

34/FES 2025 34/FES 2025/Shaping Energy: The Consumer

Shaping Energy: The Consumer

Reducing energy demand and costs through energy efficiency

Harnessing demand side flexibility to benefit both consumers and the system

Switching to lower carbon fuels to drive decarbonisation and build security of supply

35/FES 2025/Shaping Energy: The Consumer

Shaping Energy: The Consumer

Our pathways see the pace of switching to low carbon technologies increase, with

greater uptake of heat pumps and EVs alongside the decarbonisation of industrial

and commercial sectors. Energy efficiency improvements and demand flexibility

reduce consumer costs and help manage the system.

Today

2030

2040

2050

WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN IN OUR PATHWAYS

Acceleration

Growth

Horizon

Driving widespread adoption

Phasing out of all new

Converting harder-to-

of energy efficiency measures,

installations of gas boilers

decarbonise areas to low

including improved insulation

from 2035

standards for new builds

Switching to low carbon energy

carbon solutions, leaving

no consumers behind

Driving early participation

sources and carbon capture

Reducing demand through

in demand flexibility and

and storage (CCS) to enable

new technologies such as

innovative tariffs

rapid decline of industrial

autonomous vehicles as well

Removing barriers for homes,

emissions in the 2030s

as low carbon options,

businesses and industry

Increasing minimum energy

including public transport

(including addressing high

efficiency standards for heat

Deploying innovative

electricity prices relative to

pumps and appliances

technology (such as vehicle-

gas) to enable switching to low

carbon energy sources

Providing clear information

for consumers on good

EV car uptake is assumed to

operating practices

to-grid) at mass scale and

at pace

accelerate to reach 100% of

new sales in 2030.

Increasing heat pump rollout,

with installation rates requiring

an average 31% year-on-

year increase in the 2020s,

supported by workforce skills

and training in low carbon

technologies

36/FES 2025/Shaping Energy: The Consumer

Reducing energy demand and costs through energy efficiency

Energy efficiency measures could reduce demand for every hour of the year. Insulation

measures in buildings heated by gas contribute to Holistic Transition achieving the

2030 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) but measures are more than just

insulation. Heat pump efficiency, LED light bulbs, appliances and EV efficiency each

have potential to improve over time.

All measures reduce annual demand, peak demand, transmission and distribution network build out

requirements, and capacity requirements.

Growing the use of shared transport, public transport, cycling and walking contribute to demand reduction.

Using low carbon district heating or heat pumps wherever possible, as an alternative to direct electric

heating systems, helps build a more efficient system while reducing the risk of fuel poverty. Insulation

improvements in buildings also increase the duration for which homes can maintain comfortable

conditions for consumers while operating heating systems flexibility.

Energy efficiency measures across all consumer sectors reduce 2050 electricity demand and consumer costs.

0100200300400500600700High Demand PotentialEV efficiencyShared transportResidential lightingResidential appliancesPassive coolingThermal measuresSCOP improvementsDirect electric heatingCommercialIndustrialHolistic TransitionTWhHeatimprovementsRoad and RailTransportResidentialIndustrial andCommercialIn a decarbonised world without energy efficiency improvements across all sectors, energy demand in Holistic Transitionwould be 127 TWh higher37/FES 2025/Shaping Energy: The Consumer

Harnessing demand side flexibility to benefit both consumers and the system

A net zero energy system will rely upon flexibility in both supply and demand. Demand

flexibility puts consumers in control of their energy use and our pathways see this enabling

up to a 54% reduction in peak demand in 2050, helping build a more resilient system.

Today’s peak demand is largely due to residential lighting and appliances (such as cooking) overlapping

with industrial and commercial demand in the early evening. Greater levels of electrified heating and

transport contribute to future peak demand in our pathways, alongside growing electrified industrial and

commercial demand.

Fair access to the cost savings made through demand flexibility will require equitable access to low

carbon technologies. Automating demand flexibility allows for more optimal and effortless shifting of

transport and some heat demand. Making smart tariffs the default option for EV owners can reward flexibility

while allowing automation of charging and, over time, heating systems. EVs could be the largest source of

flexibility capacity across supply and demand, providing 51 GW at peak. After partial discharging at peak,

vehicles could still be fully charged by the morning without compromising their owners’ driving experience.

They should be the focus for flexibility, particularly given the average battery size relative to average weekly

mileage. This engagement from consumers with EVs and smart tariffs encourages flexibility of heat pumps

and other appliances away from peak times, such as dishwashers, washing machines and tumble driers.

Industry and commercial can also offer flexibility in shifting non-time critical demand. Thermal storage

could shift electrified high temperature and cooling demand, such as data centres, alongside growing

flexibility from large refrigerators. At times of high demand and low renewable generation, greater levels of

demand side flexibility can be dispatched; on days of surplus renewable generation, demand turn up can

provide a productive use of this low-cost energy. In an environment of high energy prices, flexibility offers

opportunity for real savings for consumers and businesses.

Demand flexibility reduces both peak electricity demand and the need for supply side infrastructure.

-40-20020406080100120140160No demand flexAll demand flexNo demand flexI&C DSRI&C heat flexResi heat flexResi DSRSmart ChargingV2GAll demand flexGWTransportResidential heatResidentialappliancesI&C heatCommercialIndustrialPeak Demand afterall demand flex20502024Rewarding consumers for their high levels of engagement in demand flex has the potential to halve peak electricity demandEVs could become a net exporter at peak38/FES 2025/Shaping Energy: The Consumer

Switching to lower carbon fuels to drive decarbonisation and build security of supply

Switching to low carbon fuels can increase energy security by reducing fossil fuel

imports and can, with flexible demand, reduce consumer bills. In our pathways, it can

achieve more than 50% of whole-economy decarbonisation but the speed of adoption

is crucial for meeting carbon budgets and NDCs.

All heating solutions installed in our pathways from 2035 are low carbon to meet carbon budgets and to

prevent replacement of systems before end of life. Heat pumps, whether residential or district heating, are

the solution for most buildings by 2050 across the pathways. In Holistic Transition, direct electric heating

is only used where more practical or economical to do so and will often incorporate storage to minimise

peak demand.

Road transport is the largest emissions sector today and has the greatest potential to drive emissions

reductions to meet the 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). All new car sales in 2030 in our

pathways are EVs, requiring a current acceleration rate greater than current policy. Electrification is the main

solution for road transport in our pathways, although hydrogen could play a role in larger HGVs in the 2040s.

While much of industry needs to electrify, the sector faces challenges including capital investment, high

electricity prices and electricity connection times. Connection reform will help speed up connections for

those ready to connect. The release of the government’s Modern Industrial Strategy in June 2025 will help towards reducing the cost of electricity for some industry.11

Those unable to electrify could switch to other low carbon alternatives such as hydrogen, abated gas or

biomethane but uncertainty remains over both the availability of hydrogen and CO2 infrastructure outside

the initial industrial clusters and the volume of biomethane available.

Replacing fossil fuels with more efficient electrified technologies is the main reason primary energy demand

reduces by 47% from 1210 TWh to 638 TWh in Holistic Transition.

Electrification offers improved efficiency compared to today’s fossil fuel technologies, facilitating demand reduction alongside decarbonisation.

11 The UK’s Modern Industrial Strategy 2025, Gov.uk, 23 June 2025

025050075010001250202520302035204020452050TWhOilBioenergyHydrogenGasElectricityTransportResidentialIndustrial& commercialTransportResidentialIndustrial & commercial39/FES 2025/Shaping Energy: The Consumer

Our pathways see rapid adoption of low carbon technologies across transport, heating and

industrial and commercial sectors. While ambitious, there is precedent for success.

Our pathways see transport, heating, industrial and commercial sectors rapidly changing how they use

energy. These transitions require a step-up from current rates, comparable to the town gas conversion in

the 1960s and 1970s, adoption of EVs in Norway or heat pumps in Sweden and Finland.

Switching to low carbon fuels and technologies is crucial in all our net zero pathways. The Ten Year

Forecast (10YF) has a shortfall of almost 4 million heat pump installations relative to the pathways in 2035

if progress is not accelerated. Heat is a challenging, but essential, area and a variety of measures are

required to close this gap. Implementing strong policy to further incentivise heat pump uptake, such as the

full phase out of new gas boiler installations in 2035, maintaining the Boiler Upgrade Scheme grant until

this point, enacting the Future Homes Standard with no further delay, improving consumer and installer

awareness around heat pumps, innovating with new financial and technical solutions to enable distress

purchases, and reducing the gap between electricity and gas prices.

The 10YF also shows that, at the current pace, industry is unlikely to switch from natural gas to low carbon

alternatives at a sufficient rate. Rebalancing electricity and gas prices and speeding up grid connections

will support this, alongside strategic consideration of where to target and enable the use of hydrogen

and CCS for other users. Some industry may face high upfront costs to transition to low carbon fuels and

further support may be required. The industrial energy transition needs to be guided by clear long-term

carbon accounting policy for industrial imports of materials and products which, in turn, makes electricity,

hydrogen and abated gas more economical than unabated gas, while ensuring Great Britain remains an

attractive economy for industry.

Town Gas Conversions (1967-71)0.00.51.01.52.02.53.02020202520302035Millions per year With planning and preparation the conversion from town gas was at a faster pace than heat pump uptake in the pathways.Norway, 2017-22 (population adjusted)0.00.51.01.52.02.53.020152020202520302035Millions per year HistoryHydrogen EvolutionElectric EngagementHolistic TransitionElectric Vehicle uptake in the pathways is comparable to the historic rate in Norway.All pathways have the same EV uptake. Falling Behind not shown and has slower uptake.40/FES 2025/Shaping Energy: The Consumer

Ten Year Forecast Comparison in 2035

0246810Heat Pump StockMillions020406080100Industrial Natural Gas UseTWhPathway RangeTen Year ForecastFalling Behind3

41/FES 2025 41/FES 2025/Powering the System: Electricity Supply

Powering the System: Electricity Supply

Starting the decarbonisation journey

Delivering new power infrastructure of all types beyond 2030

Generating clean power beyond 2030

Limiting costs from periods of high renewable generation

42/FES 2025/Powering the System: Electricity Supply

Powering the System: Electricity Supply

All pathways see significant growth of offshore and onshore wind, together with

high levels of solar deployment. Flexible technologies also grow to power the

country at times of low renewable generation.

Today

2030

2040

2050

WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN IN OUR PATHWAYS

Acceleration

Growth

Horizon

Delivering strategic plans

Building strategic whole

Increasing long-duration

across electricity, gas, hydrogen

system energy infrastructure,

energy storage (LDES) and low

and CO2 transport and storage to ensure the build

considering electricity, gas,

carbon dispatchable power to

hydrogen, bioenergy and

allow decarbonisation of the

out of renewable and flexible

technology at pace and scale

CO2 to provide access to decarbonisation, deliver

Implementing the reformed

connections process and

negative emissions and enable

economic growth

planning to enable deployment

Utilising renewable oversupply

of low carbon energy capacity

to enable deployment of flexible

and access to networks

demand when energy cost is

Developing the workforce and

at its lowest

skills needed to build assets

Reforming markets to

and infrastructure

drive efficient investment

and operation

remaining demand

Further reducing use of

unabated fossil fuels, limiting its

use to security of supply only

43/FES 2025/Powering the System: Electricity Supply

Starting the decarbonisation journey

A decarbonised power sector is a critical milestone on the journey to net zero.

The availability of low carbon power will unlock routes for many other sectors to

decarbonise across our pathways.

Electricity has provided just under 20% of final consumer energy demand since 1990. As emissions in the

power sector fall towards zero across our pathways, electricity demand grows as other sectors electrify.

Electricity provides upwards of 70% of final consumer energy demand by 2050 in our net zero pathways.

Power sector emissions fall and electricity provides a significantly greater share of consumer final

energy demand in all pathways.

NESO’s Clean Power 2030 advice (November 2024) was based on electricity demand from the Holistic

Transition pathway in FES 2024. Our modelling for FES 2025 is based on updated baseline whole energy

demand data.

FES electricity supply modelling provides an unconstrained view of supply and demand across the

year before any unabated gas runs due to network constraints.

HistoricalHolistic TransitionElectric EngagementHydrogen Evolution0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0501001502002501990200020102020203020402050Electricity as a % of final consumer energy demandMtCO2eSolid lines show electricity emissionsDashed lines show electricity as a percentage of final consumer energy demandIn all pathways, electricity sector emissions fall, whilst electricity supplies significantly more final energy demandNotes: Historical data for UK, pathway data for GB. Emissions excluding power BECCS removals. 44/FES 2025/Powering the System: Electricity Supply

Delivering new power infrastructure of all types beyond 2030

Total installed generation capacity continues to grow in our pathways beyond 2030.

Between 2030 and 2040, 116-125 GW is added with a further 52-74 GW added between

2040 and 2050. This reflects an ambitious, continued expansion of generation capacity

as we move towards net zero.

All pathways see substantial and continued development of new power assets and infrastructure

between now and 2050.

Capacity of different technology varies across our pathways based on the specific pathway narrative or to

cover uncertainty over what will be delivered by when. There is potential to substitute within and across the

categories. For example, more demand side response could substitute for electricity storage and vice versa.

Generation capacity ranges in our pathways are narrower in the short term due to the certainty provided

by existing project pipelines, the connections reform process and the government’s Clean Power 2030

Action Plan. Beyond 2030, significant growth in generation capacity across both transmission and

distribution networks continues to meet increasing electricity demand. In all pathways, a large amount

of energy demand is in the form of electricity. The build-out of flexible power generation, storage and

interconnectors is required alongside renewables across the pathways. Colocated assets, such as

electrolysis to produce hydrogen and grid-scale battery storage for solar farms, can also leverage the

combined power of renewable generation and flexible technologies.

5114411012510332812612362911511382401002003002024Holistic TransitionElectric EngagementHydrogen EvolutionWeather DependentFirmDispatchableElectricity StorageIn 20302161734492172042482031152370100200300Installed Capacity (GW)In 20402532048562542961572301566440100200300In 205045/FES 2025/Powering the System: Electricity Supply

Table 3: All pathways see substantial and continued development

of new power assets and infrastructure between now and 2050.

Our technology insights in Chapter 7 show technology growth charts across all pathways.

Technology

Offshore wind

Renewable

Onshore wind

Solar

Nuclear

Baseload

Dispatch- able

Electricity Storage

Biomass/BECCS

Gas/CCS Hydrogen

Unabated gas

Long duration electricity storage

Batteries

Interconnectors

Demand side flexibility

Peak demand, with losses (GW)

Annual demand (TWh)

Installed capacity ranges for net zero pathways

Today 2024

Acceleration 2030

Growth 2040

Horizon 2050

15.5

14.6

18.8

6.1

4.3

39.3

2.8

6.8

9.8

8.5

57.5

287

43.3-46.8

68.5-77.7

42.3-47.8

27.3-29.8

2.9-4.1

3.7-3.9

0-1.4

31.2-36

3-5.3

11.7-12.5

10.2-15.7

62.1-64.7

335-345

92.0-93.6

96.4-104.4

38.9-44.5

6.0-11.2

2.4-5.3

43.4-50.7

87.2-101.0

10.9-21.6

2.3-5.2

25.5-35.6

48.3-55.2

8.6-16.3

0-10.6

9.2-14

13.2-16.6

17.9-24.4

23.8-65.5

31.2-40.4

17.9-24.4

40.6-81.6

96.5-112.0

120.1-143.6

564-617

705-797

20.5-25.2

28.3-35.6

Our pathways see a diverse future energy mix to cover increased future demand between now and

2050, with 30-35% coming from distributed generation.

46/FES 2025/Powering the System: Electricity Supply

The proportion of distributed generation in all our pathways remains comparable to today at around

30-35% but this is as part of a far larger electricity system. Operating a clean power electricity system in

2030 and a significantly larger electricity system towards 2050 requires greater coordination between

transmission and distribution assets and operators. Visibility of distribution-connected assets, including

location, technology type, capacity and current or planned operational behaviour, is critical. Greater

visibility will help optimise energy balancing and maintain network resilience, planning effectiveness,

ancillary service procurement and network operations.

All these changes across our pathways rely on building large amounts of new assets and infrastructure.

Beyond 2030, strategic energy planning should create longer-term certainty for the delivery of the right

amounts of generation capacity, in the right location and at the right times alongside network infrastructure.

This delivery depends on robust supply chains. By working together, government and industry can ensure a

cohesive approach to supply chains, jobs, skills, innovation and enabling infrastructure.

Delivering new capacity is not only about strategic energy planning. Implementing connections reform

will accelerate the development of new generation capacity. Market reform can also provide the certainty

needed to drive efficient investment and ensure the timely delivery of a low-cost power mix consistent with

the UK’s climate targets.

Our pathways consider deliverability in the short term through incorporating data from Transmission

Entry Capacity and Embedded Capacity Registers, known project pipelines and conversations with

stakeholders. Our pathways see growth across all clean technologies beyond 2030. The Strategic

Spatial Energy Plan will further optimise the deployment of clean technologies to provide greater

certainty for government and industry on the required installed capacity and location of new assets.

47/FES 2025/Powering the System: Electricity Supply

Generating clean power beyond 2030

As demand and renewable generation grow, our pathways use new forms of flexibility

to ensure security of supply. All pathways see substantial increases in renewable wind

and solar generation to supply low carbon power.

As demands for power grow in our pathways, new and expanded sources of low carbon flexibility and

storage are needed to meet demands year-round.

Wind and solar provide more than 75% of annual generation by 2050 in Holistic Transition.

At present, unabated gas power generation offers a substantial source of flexibility for the power system.

Utilisation of unabated gas in 2030 can vary from 5.7% to 7.9%, depending on variation in demand and

renewable generation.

In our pathways, utilisation of unabated gas plants declines in the late 2030s but remains on the system

for security of supply. During periods of high demand or lower renewable generation, our pathways see low

carbon dispatchable power generation play a critical and sustained role through different forms, such as gas

power stations with carbon capture and storage (CCS) and hydrogen to power. Low carbon dispatchable

power capacity grows substantially beyond 2030, alongside a decline of unabated gas generation.

-1000100200300400500600700800900202520302035204020452050TWhOther RenewablesSolar PVOnshore WindOffshore WindHydrogenNuclearCCS GasFossil FuelCCS BiomassBiomassInterconnectors48/FES 2025/Powering the System: Electricity Supply

Our net zero pathways see a long-term reduction in unabated gas capacity, with it largely

replaced with low carbon dispatchable thermal generation technologies such as gas with CCS and hydrogen generation.

Low carbon dispatchable power is not the only technological approach offering this flexibility to the system,

with electricity storage and interconnectors both playing a role in meeting peak demand in periods of

low renewable output. The interlinked relationship between generation types now and in the pathways is

shown within the illustrative dispatch charts for 2024 and 2050, covering a week in each of the four seasons

(Figures 15 and 16).

Energy storage is required in our pathways to help balance the grid and ensure security of supply. Battery

storage can meet short-term variations in demand and supply, provide short-term reserve and help

manage the network. LDES can help secure the system over longer periods of high or low renewable

generation output. Hydrogen storage can be used together with hydrogen power generation to offer

dispatchable power potentially for days at a time, depending on the amount of hydrogen stored and

power requirements.

Solid bars show unabated gascapacitywhich is currently 39 GWHashed bars show low carbon dispatchable power capacity, which by 2035 increases alongside the reduction of unabated gas capacity By 2050, low carbon dispatchable power brings flexible generation to a weather dependent energy system with high electricity demands0102030405060HolisticTransitionElectricEngagementHydrogenEvolutionHolisticTransitionElectricEngagementHydrogenEvolution202420352050GW49/FES 2025/Powering the System: Electricity Supply

Modelled hourly generation profiles for 2024 for illustrative weeks in all four seasons show the

changing roles and scales of dispatchable, flexible and renewable generation.12

12 All demand values include electrolysis

Demand post-flexibility includes V2G exporting 2024 and 2050 graphs are at two different scales

2024 WinterSpring Summer024487296120144MondayTuesdayWednesdayThursdayFridaySaturdaySundayAutumnBase loadRenewableUnabated GasStorage DischargingImportDemandGeneration for charging storage or exports50/FES 2025/Powering the System: Electricity Supply

Modelled hourly generation profiles for 2050 for illustrative weeks in all four seasons show the

changing roles and scales of dispatchable, flexible and renewable generation.13

13 All demand values include electrolysis

Demand post-flexibility includes V2G exporting 2024 and 2050 graphs are at two different scales

2050 WinterSpringSummer024487296120144MondayTuesdayWednesdayThursdayFridaySaturdaySundayAutumnBase loadRenewableLow Carbon Dispatchable PowerStorage DischargingImportDemand pre-flexibilityDemand post-flexibilityDemand turn upDemand turn downGeneration for charging storage or exports51/FES 2025/Powering the System: Electricity Supply

Batteries and LDES play a vital role in ensuring a resilient, low-cost, decarbonised power system.

Interconnector flows balance variable, weather-dependent, renewable generation, providing the ability to

import or export electricity depending on supply and demand. Their use in our pathways continues to be

primarily driven by price differentials between electricity markets of the interconnected countries. Great

Britain becomes a net exporter of electricity post-2030 and retains this position to 2050 in Holistic Transition

and Electric Engagement.

18.

Interconnection between Great Britain and other electricity markets can be used to manage variable renewable generation, export electricity to reduce curtailment and enhance security of supply.

-125-100-75-50-25025507510012510YFHTEEHEFBHTEEHEFBHTEEHEFB203020402050TWhTotal importsTotal exportsNet flowsPositive values indicateimports.A pathway having a Net Flow Diamond on the upper half of the chart indicates a net import of electricity.A pathway having a Net Flow Diamondon the lower half of the chart indicates a net export of electricity.52/FES 2025/Powering the System: Electricity Supply

Limiting costs from periods of high renewable generation

During periods of low demand and high renewable output, generation may exceed

what is needed. Excess renewables add cost to the system but periods of oversupply

can play a strategic role in system-wide optimisation, unlocking greater flexibility,

reliability and cost effectiveness.

Curtailing supply as a last resort can limit costs and prevent overloading the system and operational

issues within the network. It also avoids over-building the network, which would incur additional cost

and remain underutilised for significant periods of time. Our pathways build in flexible demand, such as

charging EVs or running electrolysers for hydrogen production, when energy is at its lowest cost but still see

oversupply in the future. This could offer opportunity for flexible power users and associated novel business

models in the future and this relies on ensuring the right operational market signals are in place. Levels of

curtailment should also be considered in a whole system context. As shown in section on page 75, system-

wide energy losses decrease as we decarbonise the energy system.

Flexible demand side technologies help balance the system in all our pathways. From the 2030s, our

pathways use an increasing amount of electrolysis for hydrogen production, which can operate flexibly.

From the late 2030s, our pathways use direct air carbon capture for sustainable aviation and shipping fuel

production, utilising otherwise curtailed electricity.

Cost-optimal pathways may consider alternative means of reducing periods of high renewable

generation, such as slower deployment in the later years or additional flexible solutions.

Our pathways see higher levels of renewable oversupply leading to curtailment towards 2040.

This reduces in the 2040s in Hydrogen Evolution due to increasing flexibility. FES models an unconstrained network.

Falling BehindHydrogen EvolutionElectric EngagementHolistic TransitionTen Year Forecast01020304050202520302035204020452050TWhCurtailment peaks at around 8% of wind and solar generation in 2035 in the pathways. Hydrogen Evolution has lowest levels of curtailment from increased electrolysis and DACCS. Without DACCS operating flexibly it would be 7 TWh higher in 2050.Falling Behind reaches over 11% curtailment due to less flexibility.53/FES 2025 53/FES 2025/Fuelling the System: Gaseous Fuels

Fuelling the System: Gaseous Fuels

Reducing fossil gas usage

Decarbonising gas with biomethane

Producing low carbon hydrogen at scale and pace

Solving the low carbon gas infrastructure puzzle

Enabling the co-existence of hydrogen and gas

54/FES 2025/Fuelling the System: Gaseous Fuels

Fuelling the System: Gaseous Fuels

Gaseous fuels are crucial to our current energy system. All pathways use these

fuels to fulfil a variety of energy needs across sectors such as industry and

dispatchable power generation, alongside providing system-wide flexibility and

security of supply.

Today

2030

2040

2050

WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN IN OUR PATHWAYS

Acceleration

Growth

Horizon

Identifying a clear, strategic

Expanding hydrogen

Operating gaseous fuel

route for the future of

production, transportation and

networks safely, securely

low carbon gaseous fuel

storage infrastructure to meet

and effectively

infrastructure

decarbonisation needs across

Expanding biomethane

a variety of sectors

Utilising hydrogen in sustainable

aviation fuel production

production within the limits

Continuing the increase of

of available sustainable

sustainable biomethane usage

feedstocks across Great Britain

Initial hydrogen projects

begin operation

55/FES 2025/Fuelling the System: Gaseous Fuels

Reducing fossil gas usage

Natural gas accounts for around 40% of Great Britain’s total energy supply today. As gas

users switch to electrified or low carbon technologies in our pathways, gas demand falls.

By 2050, up to a third of all gas demand could be used to produce hydrogen by 2050.

The role of gas in our energy system has changed over history and will continue to do so in our

pathways. Example: Holistic Transition.

Gas is supplied from a variety of fossil sources in our pathways: the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS), Norway,

Europe and liquified natural gas (LNG), with underground gas storage providing a balancing mechanism

at peak periods. Today, and increasingly in the pathways, gas is also renewably sourced and produced

as biomethane.

The supply sources in our pathways remain the same as today but their relative proportions differ, contributing

to resilience and security of gas supply. The limited remaining proven or probable domestic gas reserves in the

UKCS see our pathways and Falling Behind continue to utilise gas imports to meet future demand.

Lower gas demands to 2050 in our pathways result in lower gas supply needs, with major users of gas

today, such as residential heating, industry and commercial users, largely switching to lower carbon

alternatives. This reduction in demand aids gas security of supply and reduces exposure to any future

volatility in gas markets.

Gas imports decrease in all pathways compared to the 40.7 bcm imported in 2024. Holistic Transition has

imports (Norwegian, LNG, continental and generic) of 8.3 bcm in 2050. Electric Engagement, which has a

greater need for gas for power generation, has imports of 14.1 bcm. Hydrogen Evolution, which uses more

gas for both power generation and hydrogen production, has 29.3 bcm of imports in 2050. Gas imports in

our Falling Behind scenario are 52.7 bcm in 2050.

NESO will be publishing a detailed Gas Supply Security Assessment later in 2025. This will assess gas supply

security against a variety of future demand profiles with different energy mixes, including Falling Behind and our

Ten Year Forecast (10YF), both of which show higher gas demands in the future compared to our pathways.

Hydrogen ProductionIndustrial & CommercialResidentialPower GenerationTotal UK Energy Consumption (historical)Total UK Gas Consumption (historical)05001000150020002500300019701975198019851990199520002005201020152020202520302035204020452050TWhInHolistic Transition, residential and industrial & commercial gas use continues to decline due to fuel switching. Methane reformation to produce hydrogen becomes one of the largest gas users in 2050.UK gas consumption steadily rose from 1970 to the late 1990s. Gas as a percentage of total UK energy consumption has hovered at around 35-40% since the late 1990s. Since the early 2000s, UK gas consumption has continually fallen alongside falling total UK energy consumption.56/FES 2025/Fuelling the System: Gaseous Fuels

21.

In our net zero pathways we have sufficient supply of gas to meet our demands. This is tested against one day demands.

Decarbonising gas with biomethane

Around 5.5 TWh of biomethane is currently injected into Great Britain’s gas grid.

This is significantly expanded in our pathways alongside falling gas demand to

provide a route to decarbonise gas supplies and contribute to security of supply,

using domestic feedstocks.

Biomethane is already utilised in Great Britain but at a lower level than seen in our pathways. We

commissioned an independent assessment of sustainable biomethane feedstock potential in Great Britain

for FES 2025, which showed availability beyond even the levels required in the pathways.

Other European nations have demonstrated that focused efforts can rapidly increase biomethane

production. In the wake of the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the European Union set an ambitious target, as

part of the REpowerEU plan, to expand biomethane production to 35 bcm/yr (around 366 TWh) by 2030. Production has increased by 70% since 2022 but recent forecasts14 show that only around 10 bcm/yr (~105

TWh) is likely to be achieved in Europe by 2030. This rate of increase since 2022 does, however, show how

a rapid expansion of biomethane production is possible if backed up by strong ambition, well designed

policy, available feedstocks and equipment supply chains. Denmark is a notable example. Since 2019 it has

added on average 1 TWh/yr, with just under 40% of its gas grid now supplied by biomethane. It is targeting

100% biomethane by 2030.

14 Low Carbon Gas Industry Is Struggling to Lift Supply in EU (paywall), BloombergNEF

015304560752024Holistic TransitionElectric EngagementHydrogen EvolutionFalling BehindTen Year ForecastHolistic TransitionElectric EngagementHydrogen EvolutionFalling BehindTen Year ForecastHolistic TransitionElectric EngagementHydrogen EvolutionFalling BehindHolistic TransitionElectric EngagementHydrogen EvolutionFalling Behind2030203520402050bcm/yrUK Continental ShelfBiomethaneNorwayContinentLNGGeneric Imports57/FES 2025/Fuelling the System: Gaseous Fuels

Biomethane can act as a low carbon alternative to natural gas. Our pathways see it supplying

as much as 38% of gas demand in 2050, as total gas demand falls. It can also reduce near-term pressure on the rapid development of hydrogen supply for decarbonisation.

Denmark has steadily increased the use of biomethane in its gas grid over the last 10 years,

representing a transition of a comparatively smaller scale gas grid than Great Britain’s.

Falling BehindTen Year ForecastHolistic TransitionElectric EngagementHydrogen Evolution0%10%20%30%40%50%02468202520302035204020452050Biomethane as % of total gas supplybcm/yrSolid lines indicate supplyDashed lines indicate % of total gas supplyDanish Total Gas Demand (TWh)Danish Biogas Supply (TWh)Biogas % in Danish Grid0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%05101520253035201420162018202020222024% BiogasTWhOnaverage, Denmark has added 1 TWh/yr of biogas since 201958/FES 2025/Fuelling the System: Gaseous Fuels

Producing low carbon hydrogen at scale and pace

Affordable low carbon hydrogen is an important enabler for the decarbonisation of

several sectors. Both Holistic Transition and Hydrogen Evolution see upwards of 30 TWh

of low carbon hydrogen demand by 2035.

Some gas users, particularly industrial sub-sectors requiring gaseous or liquid fuels for high-temperature

processes, will likely need low carbon hydrogen to decarbonise. Other industrial users may have

alternatives to hydrogen but may face practical challenges, such as space constraints or retrofit issues,

with hydrogen their only viable decarbonisation option. Beyond industry, other sectors could also utilise

hydrogen supply, such as dispatchable power generation or the production of sustainable aviation fuels.

Scaling hydrogen supply to meet this demand in the pathways will be challenging, as it is done at speed

from a starting point of zero.

The level of hydrogen required across our pathways is lower compared to FES 2024. A major driver of

this is reduced hydrogen demand to produce shipping fuels. We have aligned with the recommended

Seventh Carbon Budget’s Balanced Pathway which assumes that synthetic methanol as a shipping fuel is

produced domestically and ammonia as a shipping fuel is imported. It is possible that synthetic methanol

may also be imported. There may be opportunities for regions of Great Britain with significant renewable

capacity to produce shipping fuels in the future. However, we do not model the shipping fuel sector in FES.

Our pathways see industry, power generation and aviation fuels become the main hydrogen users

in 2050. The most notable difference between Holistic Transition and Electric Engagement is the latter’s lower industrial usage by 2050. Compared to Holistic Transition, by 2050 Hydrogen Evolution sees higher demands for hydrogen in industry (+17 TWh), power generation (+69 TWh), residential

heating (+68 TWh) and road transport (+27 TWh).

IndustrialPower GenerationAviationShipping0255075100125202520302035204020452050TWhNotes: Major users of hydrogen only.Defined asdemand in excess of 5 TWh in any year.InHolistic Transition,industry is the first sector to begin utilising significant amounts of hydrogen. Over time, other sectors begin to utilise hydrogen, with a balanced mixture of end users by 2050.59/FES 2025/Fuelling the System: Gaseous Fuels

Scaling low carbon hydrogen production from zero will be challenging across all pathways.

Our pathways largely use electrolysis or methane reforming with carbon capture and storage (CCS) for

hydrogen production. The lower demand for hydrogen supply compared to FES 2024 results in lower levels

of hydrogen production capacity.

Another difference compared to FES 2024 is initial hydrogen production projects. FES 2024 saw a greater

use of methane reforming with CCS in the 2030s to meet large demand. Our FES 2025 pathways see lower

hydrogen demand through the 2030s, with electrolysis providing a greater share of this production. This

is due to lower hydrogen demand as well as the volume support funding mechanisms available from the

government for electrolytic hydrogen projects.

Some of our pathways also see limited use of high temperature nuclear electrolysis in later decades

alongside some use of biomass gasification for hydrogen production paired with CCS. Biomass

gasification is a technological precursor for future sustainable aviation fuel production routes. Therefore,

if current technological challenges for biomass gasification are overcome, it could also offer net carbon

negative hydrogen production.

The relative proportions of hydrogen production capacity do not reflect the proportion of hydrogen

produced by each as seen in Figure 27. Methane reformation with CCS provides large volumes, operating

at a high load factor. Electrolytic hydrogen production has greater installed capacity but operates at lower

load factors using renewable electricity at periods of high generation. These electrolytic load factors are

derived from expectations from hydrogen allocation round 1 (HAR1) projects and an earlier availability of

clean power.

Holistic TransitionElectric EngagementHydrogen EvolutionHistorical UK Net Electricity Supplied (1950-1975)050100150200250300350202520302035204020452050TWh (HHV)13 TWh/yr 25-year averageincrease7 TWh/yr 25-year average increase5 TWh/yr 25-year average increase4 TWh/yr 25-year average increaseInHolisticTransition andElectric Engagement, the average rate of hydrogen supply increase from 2025 to 2050 is comparable to the rate of electricity supply increase from 1950-1975. In Hydrogen Evolution, this rate is almost double. Unlike electricity supply in 1950, hydrogen supply for energy begins from a starting point of zero.60/FES 2025/Fuelling the System: Gaseous Fuels

Electrolysis and gas reformation provide the majority of hydrogen production capacity in all

pathways, although this split does not map directly to volumes of hydrogen produced by each technology.

Gas reformation with CCS produces hydrogen at higher load factors with lower installed capacity.

Electrolytic hydrogen production capacity operates at a lower load factor, harnessing variable renewable generation. Data from Holistic Transition.

020406080Holistic TransitionElectric EngagementHydrogen EvolutionHolistic TransitionElectric EngagementHydrogen EvolutionHolistic TransitionElectric EngagementHydrogen EvolutionHolistic TransitionElectric EngagementHydrogen EvolutionHolistic TransitionElectric EngagementHydrogen Evolution20302035204020452050GWMethane reformation with CCUSNetworked electrolysisNon-networked electrolysisBiomass gasificationNuclear electrolysisElectrolysisprovides a significant proportion of hydrogen production capacity in all pathways, but production volumes are more evenly balanced between electrolysis and methane reformation.203020302040204020502050025507510012515002468101214161820Production (TWh HHV)Capacity (GW)BlueHydrogen provides large volumes at lower installed capacities due to high load factors, denoted by bubble size.Green Hydrogen technologies utilise variable renewable generation, and therefore have lower load factors. Over time they produce more hydrogen and have greater installed capacity.All data for Holistic Transition61/FES 2025/Fuelling the System: Gaseous Fuels

Solving the low carbon gas infrastructure puzzle

Gas transmission and distribution networks run thousands of miles across the country

and gas storage facilities deliver large volumes of gas to provide flexibility and security

of supply. Our pathways see a changing role for gas and a growing need for hydrogen

storage, alongside a longer-term decline in overall gas demand.

Great Britain has approximately 35 TWh of gas storage capacity, in addition to the volumes within gas

pipelines (linepack). However, decreasing seasonal and daily price spreads have caused challenges for

existing business models. Our pathways show a changing role for gas alongside a longer-term decline

in overall demand. The impact of this on the operation of gas storage facilities needs to be carefully

managed and considered into the future.

What drives gas storage?

The value of Great Britain’s gas storage facilities is in

delivering large values of gas to balance demand volatility.

As gas demand falls over time, and supplies from the UK

Continental Shelf and Norway reduce, storage facilities will

have a greater ability to balance demand.

However, there have been challenging market conditions

for gas storage operators in recent years. Storage facilities

benefit from greater swings in season-ahead and day-

ahead prices, and these have decreased in recent years.

Gas deliverability data from FES 2024

Day-ahead price0100200300400500600Natural Gas National Balancing Point (pence/therm)0%25%50%75%100%125%150%CFHEEEHTGas storage deliverability as percentage of peak demand20252050Season-ahead price-5005010015020004/03/202004/03/202104/03/202204/03/202304/03/202404/03/2025Natural Gas National Balancing Point (pence/therm)Period of higher profitability62/FES 2025/Fuelling the System: Gaseous Fuels

Our pathways also use hydrogen storage. This is largely to align with the electrolytic production of

hydrogen during periods of high renewable generation, which is then drawn down by consumers as

needed. These consumers may be dispatchable hydrogen power generation units in periods of low

renewable generation or industrial users of hydrogen operating at high utilisation factors. The need for

hydrogen storage emerges in the pathways in the mid-2030s. Efforts are required to match hydrogen

storage to future supply and demand needs, particularly given that lead times for large-scale salt cavern

storage can be up to ten years. Alongside this, the pathways see the need for a hydrogen transmission

network in the 2030s to move hydrogen produced electrolytically in the north of Great Britain towards

major consumers such as industrial clusters. Hydrogen Evolution, which explores the use of hydrogen for

residential heating, also requires the growth of hydrogen distribution networks to homes. The government’s

forthcoming hydrogen transport and storage allocation round, due to open in 2026, may begin to build this pipeline of infrastructure projects.15

Efforts are required to develop a sufficient pipeline of hydrogen storage capacity.

Enabling the co-existence of hydrogen and gas

Natural gas, biomethane and hydrogen co-exist in our pathways to 2050. Assets for

each fuel will continue to be developed, refurbished or repurposed for both the supply

and demand side.

Some assets may be repurposed from gas to hydrogen where technically and economically viable, while

maintaining gas security of supply. However, many will remain for natural gas and biomethane users to 2050.

All pathways see the use of gas in the power generation mix to 2050, within gas power stations equipped with

CCS. Maintaining sufficient availability of gas transportation and storage will be essential.

Policy decisions, such as on hydrogen for heating and the planned role for NESO as the hydrogen system planner from 202616, may influence where and how different gaseous fuels will be used in the future energy

system. Additionally, industry has previously presented hydrogen network plans, such as National Gas’

15 Clean Energy Industries Sector Plan, Gov.uk, 23 June 2025

16 Hydrogen Strategy Update to the Market: December 2024, DESNZ

01020304050202520302035204020452050TWh (HHV)Holistic TransitionElectric EngagementHydrogen EvolutionFalling BehindTen Year ForecastLead times for hydrogensalt cavern storage development can be 7-10 years. Increasing needs for hydrogen storage from the mid 2030s onwards will require the development of a pipeline of suitable storage projects.63/FES 2025/Fuelling the System: Gaseous Fuels

Project Union or industrial cluster hydrogen networks such as HyNet and East Coast Hydrogen. In June 2025 the government confirmed £500m of funding for hydrogen infrastructure17.

Plans to connect large assets to gas today will have long-term impacts on the future needs of gas

networks and, in many cases, the needs of CCS networks to decarbonise these assets in the future. Such

developments will influence any ability to repurpose parts of the gas network for hydrogen. The interactions

of gas, CCS and hydrogen should, therefore, be considered in strategic energy planning.

At present, there is no clarity for gas or hydrogen suppliers, network operators or end users on how

these fuels will develop and operate together. This urgently needs focus, given that our pathways see a

substantial change in gaseous fuel supply and demand in the 2030s. Strategic energy planning can begin

to clarify the roles and interactions between these networks and the government’s call for evidence on transitioning the gas system, due to open in 2026, may also begin to bring clarity to this area.18

Gas, biomethane and hydrogen will co-exist in the future energy system in Holistic Transition and

Hydrogen Evolution, creating challenges and opportunities for new asset development, asset re-purposing and asset refurbishment. Electric Engagement has low levels of biomethane but continued use of natural gas with developing use of hydrogen.

Pipelines in perspective: Gas and hydrogen transmission networks

5,000 miles of the existing gas National Transmission Network (NTS)

1,500 miles of the planned Project Union national hydrogen transmission network, some of which is

proposed to be re-purposed from the NTS

1,578 miles of the NTS came online between 1966 and 1971

17 £500m boost for hydrogen to create thousands of British jobs, Gov.uk, 13 June 2025

18 Midstream gas system: update to the market, Next Steps, Gov.uk, 30 June 2025

64/FES 2025 64/FES 2025/Crossing the Horizon:Carbon Capture and Storage and Negative Emissions

Crossing the Horizon: Carbon Capture and Storage and Negative Emissions

Understanding the need for carbon capture and storage

Using engineered carbon removals as the final step towards net zero

Using bioenergy with carbon capture and storage for carbon removals

Using direct air carbon capture and storage to provide a scalable alternative for carbon removals in later years

CO265/FES 2025/Crossing the Horizon:Carbon Capture and Storage and Negative Emissions

Crossing the Horizon: Carbon Capture and Storage and Negative Emissions

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is initially used across our pathways in hard-to-

decarbonise industrial sectors and low carbon dispatchable power. Engineered carbon

removals are essential from the 2030s, together with carbon removals from the land

sector, to offset residual emissions from sectors such as agriculture and aviation.

Today

2030

2040

2050

WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN IN OUR PATHWAYS

Acceleration

Growth

Horizon

Initial deployment of large-

Developing CCS projects

Continued safe and secure

scale CCS projects in Great

across industry, dispatchable

operation of CCS networks and

Britain, including transportation

power and blue hydrogen

storage for all users

and storage networks

production, targeting areas

Advancing progress and

creating certainty for

potential CCS users in

Track 2 and beyond

with limited alternatives

Using CO2 in some sustainable aviation fuel and shipping

Development and operation

production

of additional CO2 networks beyond the Track 1 funded

pipelines

Deploying direct air carbon

capture and storage (DACCS)

to offset any remaining

Operating CCS networks flexibly

residual emissions

to meet the diverse needs of

users across different sectors

Commissioning initial

BECCS projects with expansion

of BECCS use throughout

the decade

66/FES 2025/Crossing the Horizon:Carbon Capture and Storage and Negative Emissions

Understanding the need for carbon capture and storage

While renewables and electrification account for the bulk of decarbonisation in our

pathways, there remains a targeted and strategic need for CCS. Initial deployment is

underway but our pathways utilise over 65 MtCO2/yr of CCS by 2050, highlighting the need for further focus.

The near-to-medium term availability of low carbon dispatchable power in our pathways is likely to

come from gas power stations with alongside biomass power, with alternatives such as large-scale

dispatchable hydrogen power generation facing scaling challenges due to infrastructure needs, as noted in the government’s recent hydrogen-to-power call for evidence19. Additionally, several energy-from-waste

facilities plan to retrofit with CCS. These facilities will fall within scope of the UK Emissions Trading Scheme

(ETS) which will create smaller CCS users with high load factors across the waste and power sectors.

Our pathways see hydrogen production via methane reforming with CCS available from around 2030 to

supply industrial clusters. This will create additional CCS network users, as well as users of initial hydrogen

networks. Some industrial sectors and sites may opt for CCS to decarbonise unavoidable process

emissions (for example, in cement or lime production) or if CCS offers a more viable option for a specific

site or process. Our pathways show these users starting to deploy CCS from the end of the 2020s, using the

CO2 networks funded by the government to date.

Recent government funding will support the initial development of CCS but there remains a significant

gap between this and what is required in our pathways in both the medium and long term.

19 Innovative hydrogen-to-power projects: call for evidence, Gov.uk, 31 March 2025

Holistic TransitionElectric EngagementHydrogen Evolution50MtCO2/yr of CCS capacity was operational globally as of 2024The UK Government has currently provided funding to support up to 8.5MtCO2/yr of CCS operational from the late 2020s.Ten Year Forecast0204060801001202020202520302035204020452050MtCO2/yrSources: NESO analysis, UKGovernment, Global CCS Institute.67/FES 2025/Crossing the Horizon:Carbon Capture and Storage and Negative Emissions

Carbon removal technologies are also deployed in the 2030s across our pathways, beginning with

BECCS. Hydrogen Evolution additionally sees the use of direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS)

in the 2040s. Upgrading biogas to biomethane also offers potential to remove CO2 emissions, creating

engineered carbon removals but this has not been modelled or assumed in the pathways.

This creates a complex picture of CCS developments and operation. These networks will need to be ready to

connect users from different sites, across substantially different CO2 capture amounts and operating modes.

For example, some connected sites may be smaller continuously operated industrial facilities, while others

might be larger dispatchable gas power stations. The demands placed on these CCS networks will be driven

by the broader needs of the decarbonising energy system. Additionally, some may have users drawing off

and utilising CO2, such as sustainable aviation fuel or shipping fuel production facilities.

Despite this complexity there is no formal planning role for the development of these networks to ensure

they can meet the decarbonisation needs of the energy sector.

CCS infrastructure should be strategically planned alongside electricity, gas and hydrogen to ensure

alignment across the whole energy system.

Progress on CCS in Great Britain

In October 2024, the UK government pledged £22bn of funding over 25 years for CCS projects in

Teesside and Merseyside. In December 2024, two Teesside projects achieved final investment decision

(FID): the Northern Endurance Partnership (which will develop CO2 transport and storage infrastructure)

and the Net Zero Teesside project (a 742 MWe gas power station equipped with CCS). Both are

expected to complete in 2028. In late April 2025, Liverpool Bay CCS pipeline and storage project

achieved its FID. That same month, Perenco successfully completed the safe injection of 5,000 tonnes

of CO2 into depleted gas fields in the North Sea, performing 15 injection cycles. This was a UK first for

both the North Sea and for depleted gas field injection. In June 2025, the government announced that

the Acorn CCS network in Scotland and the Viking network in Humberside would move forward under

the Track 2 cluster process.

68/FES 2025/Crossing the Horizon:Carbon Capture and Storage and Negative Emissions

Using engineered carbon removals as the final step towards net zero

Residual emissions in hard-to-decarbonise sectors, such as aviation and agriculture,

necessitate the use of engineered carbon removals. Analysis from the Climate Change

Committee’s (CCC) recommended Seventh Carbon Budget report shows that, as in

the Sixth Carbon Budget report, residual emissions will remain in 2050 which will need

to be offset and removed.

Sectors such as agriculture and aviation are commonly considered hard-to-decarbonise. Analysis from

the Climate Change Committee’s (CCC) recommended Seventh Carbon Budget shows that, as in the Sixth

Carbon Budget, there is no clear pathway to fully decarbonise either sector over the next 25 years, with

both remaining significant sources of emissions in 2050 under a net zero pathway.

For non-energy sectors, including agriculture and aviation, we take emissions reduction pathways from

the CCC’s recommended Seventh Carbon Budget. Emissions in agriculture are due to the way we farm

and use land and the largely unavoidable emissions associated with animals. Aviation, meanwhile,

faces immense technological challenge to directly decarbonise the sector in the next 25 years and

instead is likely to need to use engineered removals to offset remaining emissions.

Aviation and agriculture are the major sources of residual emissions in 2050.

Sectors outside aviation and agriculture will still have small-to-moderate residual emissions in our

pathways in 2050. For example, the manufacturing processes of some ceramics and brick products result

in the unavoidable release of carbon. While it is possible for some sites to remove these with CCS, some

residual emissions will remain due to both the broad geographic spread of these industries and the

prevalence of small-to-medium scale sites.

HeatIndustrial ProcessAgricultureAviationShippingWasteF-gasesFuel SupplyElectricity excl. BECCSRoad Transport and RailBlue HydrogenLULUCFBECCSDACCSEnhanced rock weathering and biochar-50-30-10103050MtCO2e/yrHolistic TransitionElectric EngagementHydrogen EvolutionCarbon removals from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) together with engineered removals, such as BECCS and DACCS, offset residual emissions principally from aviation and agriculture.FES models the purple highlighted sectors. Othersare taken from the Seventh Carbon Budget balanced pathway.69/FES 2025/Crossing the Horizon:Carbon Capture and Storage and Negative Emissions

Engineered carbon removals are necessary in our pathways to achieve net zero emissions and

interim carbon budgets.

Nature-based solutions, such as tree planting and peat bog restoration, can deliver around half the

carbon removals required in 2050. However, even with the ambitious levels of tree planting in the CCC’s

recommended Seventh Carbon Budget’s Balanced Pathway, such solutions cannot deliver all the scale

and speed of required removals and do not always result in permanent removals. For example, land used

for forestry could be changed again in the future or planted forests may be susceptible to the effects of

climate change, such as extreme weather or disease.

Using bioenergy with carbon capture and storage for carbon removals

Biomass feedstocks are currently used in Great Britain’s fleet of biomass power

stations, with most commissioned under schemes such as the Renewables Obligation

and further deployment under subsequent schemes more limited. BECCS is essential

across our pathways, where usage of biomass in power BECCS facilities is at a

comparable level to today’s usage in biomass power generation.

Sustainable biomass is a limited resource and should be prioritised where it can have the greatest net

impact on emissions reductions, such as where there are no other low carbon alternatives to biomass or

where it can provide the greatest net impact on decarbonisation, inclusive of carbon removals. As part of

its 2023 Biomass Strategy, the government has committed to developing and consulting on a common framework for biomass sustainability20.

20 Biomass Strategy 2023, Gov.uk, 10 August 2023

Holistic Transitionemissions trajectory with carbon removals - 100 200 300 400 5002020202520302035204020452050MtCO2eWithout the use of engineered carbon removals, in this case BECCS, around 21 MtCO2eof net emissions would remain in 2050. Engineered removals also make key contributions towards the Sixth Carbon Budget.Nature based removals (LULUCF), largely driven by forestry, make a notable impact from 2040 onwards, but can only deliver around 30 MtCO2eof net carbon removals by 2050. This is due to timescales for tree planting, forest growth and the arising removals.70/FES 2025/Crossing the Horizon:Carbon Capture and Storage and Negative Emissions

Our pathways see a changing role for biomass use in power generation. Towards 2050, the total amount

of biomass feedstock used falls in Holistic Transition and Hydrogen Evolution and remains at comparable

levels to amounts used in recent years in Electric Engagement. This feedstock is instead used in power

BECCS facilities to provide carbon removals, instead of current use in unabated biomass power generation.

Biomass feedstocks represent an important starting point in our pathways for engineered removals in the

early 2030s and, when used in BECCS facilities, hold significant value in reaching net zero targets. Achieving

carbon budgets and NDC targets from 2030 is challenging, even with rapid decarbonisation across

sectors. BECCS can contribute to these targets and remains a cornerstone of the required engineered carbon

removals in all our pathways by 2050. Hydrogen Evolution, which uses BECCS to a lesser extent, does not

achieve either the Sixth or recommended Seventh Carbon Budget. The shortfall by which it misses each carbon

budget is broadly equivalent to the amount of removals provided by power BECCS in the other pathways.

There are alternative carbon removal technologies. DACCS uses significant amounts of energy to

remove CO2 from the atmosphere but does not rely on biomass feedstocks and can be manufactured

and deployed in a modular fashion. Biochar and enhanced rock weathering is used in small amounts

in Hydrogen Evolution, in line with the low levels in the CCC’s recommended Seventh Carbon Budget’s

Balanced Pathway. Both biochar and enhanced rock weathering face additional challenges around

monitoring and verifying the removal of CO2 from the atmosphere. Both DACCS and BECCS, however, have

a pipeline with a measurable flow of CO2 into a geological store.

Electric Engagement uses the most power BECCS facilities for carbon removals. Biomass usage

remains comparable to today’s levels.

Table 4: Snapshot of BECCS facilities currently in development across Europe.

Company

Project

Location

Stockholm Exergi

Beccs Stockholm

Ørsted

Asnæs Power Station

Avedøre Power Station

Stockholm, Sweden

Kalundborg, Denmark

Copenhagen, Denmark

Removals (tCO2/yr)

800,000

280,000

150,000

Status

FID reached March 2025, targeting operation in 2028

Under construction, planned operation in 2026

Biomass feedstock demand for power generationUnabated Biomass Power GenerationPower BECCS Generation0255075100125202520302035204020452050TWh (HHV)71/FES 2025/Crossing the Horizon:Carbon Capture and Storage and Negative Emissions

Using direct air carbon capture and storage to provide a scalable alternative for carbon removals in later years

DACCS offers another engineered carbon removal approach, with different trade-

offs to BECCS. It is an energy intensive process but novel electrochemical approaches

could substantially reduce the energy requirement.

While DACCS does not have the land requirements for feedstock growth associated with BECCS, it does

require greater energy, has a higher cost per tonne of CO2 captured and does not produce a useful

energy by product. Current approaches require around 2 MWh of energy input per tonne of CO2 captured

and approximately 80% of this required energy is in the form of heat. Whereas delivery of all required

engineered carbon removals with BECCS would require more land use and imports, delivery of all removals

with DACCS would require a significantly larger energy system.

Using data from the CCC’s recommended Seventh Carbon Budget’s Balanced Pathway, all our pathways

use some direct air capture (without storage), where CO2 is combined with hydrogen as a feedstock to

produce sustainable aviation fuels. A similar approach is used for synthetic shipping fuel production. This

begins at scale in the late 2030s.

Holistic Transition and Electric Engagement both meet the Sixth and recommended Seventh Carbon

Budgets, but need large scale engineered carbon removals in the 2030s to do so. In such a short timescale,

and with such demand, BECCS is viewed as the more feasible option to deliver, as there are several

potential large-scale projects in Great Britain and BECCS does not create the additional energy demands

that DACCS would create alongside other decarbonisation activity across the economy. Hydrogen

Evolution sees the additional deployment of DACCS for engineered carbon removals in the 2040s.

At present, the largest DACCS project in development globally is the Stratos facility in Texas. This facility is

targeting commercial operation in 2025 and will capture 500,000 tonnes of CO2 per year when complete.

In our pathways, direct air capture utilises either renewable electricity, which would otherwise be curtailed,

for all energy needs, including heat, or uses waste heat from sources, such as industry or nuclear to meet

its heat requirements, alongside electricity to meet its electrical demands.

72/FES 2025/Crossing the Horizon:Carbon Capture and Storage and Negative Emissions

In our net zero pathways, the energy system

looks substantially different to today

KeyElectricityGasHydrogenHeatCarbon capture and storage73/FES 2025 73/FES 2025/Whole System Opportunities on the Route to Net Zero

Whole System Opportunities on the Route to Net Zero

Picturing the energy future

Exploring the choices in our pathways

Costing the pathways

Innovating across our pathways

Exploring the extremes

74/FES 2025/Whole System Opportunities on the Route to Net Zero

Whole System Opportunities on the Route to Net Zero

Electricity is at the heart of the future energy system, supported and enabled

by a variety of additional fuels and energy vectors such as gas, hydrogen and

bioenergy, and a broad range of low carbon generation and storage technologies.

Today

2030

2040

2050

WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN IN OUR PATHWAYS

Acceleration

Growth

Horizon

Reducing reliance on gas for

Expanding energy storage

Substantially reducing imports

electricity production and

across vectors to enhance

of gas, enhancing energy

operating the system with a

resilience

independence

high share of renewables for

the majority of the time

Lower losses of energy across

the whole system

75/FES 2025/Whole System Opportunities on the Route to Net Zero

Picturing the energy future Sankey 1

Our current energy system has a high reliance on fossil fuels, with large losses of energy. Sankey

diagram showing energy flows, interactions, usage and losses across the whole system today.

Natural gas

642

498

Ambient heat: 5

Industrial and commercial: 391

Unabated gas: 149

Storage: 1

Residential: 422

Electricity: 304

Biomass: 34 Energy from waste: 70

604

Road and rail transport: 398

Aviation & Shipping: 195

~900 Losses

~750 Useful energy

14 Electricity export

Much of the primary fossil energy we extract today is wasted, predominantly as heat, in power stations or internal

combustion engines. A heavily electrified decarbonised energy system leads to higher overall and round-

trip efficiencies. Electric vehicles convert 80-90% of electrical energy into mechanical energy by their motors,

compared to internal combustion engines converting 20-30% of their fossil energy into useful energy. Similarly,

gas condenser boilers have an efficiency of 80-90% compared to heat pumps with efficiencies of more than

300% by using electrical energy to extract useful energy from the air, ground or water by a compression cycle.

Hydrogen generation: 276

Holistic Transition shows an example of a net zero energy system where there are significant

Sankey 2 changes across supply and demand versus today, and a reduction in overall losses of energy. Sankey diagram showing Holistic Transition in 2050.

Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage 30

Hydrogen storage: 276

Electrolysis: 276

Hydrogen: 276

Nuclear: 276

Non-networked generation

398

Gas CCS: 100

Methane reforming: 53

Storage: 12

Hydrogen: 120

Ambient heat: 281

Curtailment

Hydrogen generation: 27

Industrial and commercial: 339

~950 Useful energy

Electrolysis: 89

Storage: 82

Electricity: 813

Residential: 157

69 Electricity export

Curtailment

Road and rail transport: 142

Aviation & Shipping: 176

Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage 18

~600 Losses

Biomass and BECCS: 68

Energy from waste: 27

Offshore wind

Onshore wind

Solar Other renewables

Electricity import

33 19 3 19

Nuclear fuel

129

Biofuel

116

Other fuels

639

Natural gas

103

Non-networked generation

Offshore wind

419

Onshore wind

119

Solar

100

Other renewables

Electricity import

4 51

Nuclear fuel

283

Biofuel

196

Other fuels

105

Electrolysis: 276

Nuclear: 276

Hydrogen storage: 276

Hydrogen: 276

Non-networked

generation

398

Unabated gas: 149

76/FES 2025/Whole System Opportunities on the Route to Net Zero

Electric Engagement has a higher usage of nuclear power, greater electrification of demand, and

Sankey 3

lower usage of hydrogen. Sankey diagram showing Electric Engagement in 2050.

Natural gas

167

Offshore wind

389

Onshore wind

127

Solar

104

Other renewables

Electricity import

5 64

Nuclear fuel

435

Biofuel

170

Other fuels

105

Methane reforming: 38

Storage: 10

Ambient heat: 249

Gas CCS: 118

Hydrogen 1: 98

Electrolysis: 82

Storage: 75

Hydrogen generation: 31

Industrial and commercial: 355

~950 Useful energy

Electricity: 886

Biomass and BECCS: 106

Energy from waste: 27

Residential: 190

Road and rail transport: 145

Aviation & Shipping: 176

Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage 18

69 Electricity export

Curtailment

~750 Losses

Hydrogen Evolution explores a future where hydrogen takes a more prominent role in the energy

Sankey 4

system. Sankey diagram showing Hydrogen Evolution in 2050.

Non-networked generation

Natural gas Non-networked generation Non-networked generation

341 398

Offshore wind

389

Onshore wind

108

Solar

Other renewables

Electricity import

89 4

Nuclear fuel

222

Biofuel

155

Other fuels

105

Electrolysis: 276

Nuclear: 276

Hydrogen storage: 276

Hydrogen: 276

Methane reforming: 157

Storage: 39

Gas CCS: 225

Unabated gas: 149

Hydrogen: 327

Electrolysis: 210

Storage: 30

Hydrogen generation: 96

Electricity: 832

Biomass and BECCS: 35

Energy from waste: 27

Ambient heat: 187

Industrial and commercial: 358

Residential: 243

Road and rail transport: 160

Aviation & Shipping: 176

Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage 7

~950 Useful energy

48 Electricity export

Curtailment

~700 Losses

Electrolysis: 276

Nuclear: 276

Hydrogen storage: 276

Hydrogen: 276

77/FES 2025/Whole System Opportunities on the Route to Net Zero

Exploring the choices in our pathways While our pathways offer distinct strategic routes to net zero, some technologies or

approaches must be utilised regardless of pathway. It is important to consider where

key areas of commonality or difference exist, as these can inform future decisions.

Table 5: Significant commonalities and differences across our pathways.

Commonalities across all pathways All pathways require these actions

Differences The most significant differences

EVs make up 100% of new car sales by 2030.

Heat pumps and low carbon district heating are the only option for new homes from 2027. No new fossil fuel boilers are installed from 2035.

By 2035 industry reduces gas demand by 47% in Holistic Transition, 46% in Electric Engagement and 53% in Hydrogen Evolution, compared to 2024 levels.

By 2035, all pathways have at least 65 GW offshore wind capacity, 35 GW onshore wind capacity and 55 GW solar capacity.

All pathways have at least 40 MtCO2/yr captured via CCS in 2035.

All pathways have at least 25 MtCO2e of engineered carbon removals by 2050. Deployment begins from the early 2030s, as these are an important contribution towards the Sixth Carbon Budget.

Demand flexibility varies across the pathways due to optionality and uncertainty. Holistic Transition has 82 GW by 2050, while Electric Engagement has 67 GW and Hydrogen Evolution has 41 GW.

High uncertainty on future growth of data centres leads to their 2050 demand ranging from 30-71 TWh, including Falling Behind.

The choice of low carbon fuel for industry in 2050 ranges from 131 TWh of electricity and 11 TWh of hydrogen in Electric Engagement to 91 TWh of electricity and 47 TWh of hydrogen in Hydrogen Evolution.

Interconnectors offer different levels of supply side flexibility across the pathways. Holistic Transition has 21.8 GW by 2050, while Electric Engagement has 24.4 GW and Hydrogen Evolution has 17.9 GW.

Hydrogen storage capacities are significantly higher in Hydrogen Evolution by 2050, at 39 TWh. Holistic Transition and Electric Engagement have 12 TWh and 10 TWh respectively.

In 2050, Holistic Transition and Electric Engagement have around 100-120 TWh hydrogen demand, while Hydrogen Evolution has 280 TWh due to residential heating and wider use across sectors.

Is there any slack in the system?

Our pathways deploy different technologies to different levels. One pathway having a lower deployment

level than another suggests there may be potential to deploy more if the need arises. For example,

another technology falls behind. However, technologies with significant deployment level variations across

pathways could be viewed as challenging with regards to policy and incentives, as poor design of these

could lead to a far greater uptake than required. Technologies which are deployed to high levels in all

pathways could be viewed as important areas to drive progress and uptake regardless of the route to net

zero, as well as being technologies that cannot be pushed much harder if others fall behind. It is important,

therefore, to understand where additional deployment potential may exist in the future energy system,

while recognising that this view is based on what we know at present.

H2H2H2H278/FES 2025/Whole System Opportunities on the Route to Net Zero

Variation in installed capacity in 2050 for select technologies, relative to the highest level

installed in any one pathway.

Offshore wind

Low carbon dispatchable

HE95%

HT100%

EE95%

HE100%

HT90%

EE90%

Heat pumps

HE85%

EVs

HT100%

EE95%

HE100%

HT90%

EE95%

HE85%

HT95%

EE100%

Battery storage

HE80%

Solar

HT95%

EE100%

HE100%

Hydrogen supply

HT40%

EE30%

Nuclear

HE50%

HT65%

Highest installed capacity is denoted by the right-most marker

H279/FES 2025/Whole System Opportunities on the Route to Net Zero

Costing the pathways

Costs in the energy sector are a mix of capital investment, such as vehicles, heating

systems, power generating capacity and transmission networks and operational

spend, such as fuel costs and maintenance. These costs have fluctuated in the past

and will continue to in future.

Our FES pathways have implications for costs; how costs change over time, the distribution of expenditure

across different sectors and the balance between capital investment and operating costs. While any

projection inevitably involves uncertainty, there are clear trends that can be expected. The net zero

pathways see a shift away from operational spend towards investment, and away from imported oil and

gas towards increasingly homegrown electricity. The pathways also see options that are expected to add

to costs and options that are expected to yield savings compared to today.

We will publish cost analysis in a technical annex in summer 2025, including the estimated costs of the

pathways and our costing methodology.

FES does not aim to optimise future pathways around costs. It presents a broad view of possible pathways

and looks at a range of outcomes across supply and demand. It deliberately includes different options

(some of which will be more expensive) to demonstrate the potential range of uncertainty and options in

line with each pathway’s core narrative. Therefore, the costings we will present in our technical annex are

not estimates of the cost of net zero – rather they explore the potential cost implications of the options and

choices available to decarbonise Great Britain’s energy system.

In addition, although various factors can influence the comparative cost of the pathways, a significant

proportion of costs and savings are effectively already committed when looking forward to 2050 and

so are the same across all pathways. These would include costs such as support costs for existing

renewables, the maintenance of existing networks and committed network spend, along with savings from

switching to electric vehicles.

Various previous analyses have specifically explored more optimised scenarios and this optimisation

approach will be an integral part of the Strategic Spatial Energy Plan (SSEP). For example, the Climate

Change Committee (CCC) identifies that the additional cost of its Balanced Pathway to net zero

emissions in 2050 would be below 1% of GDP (0.2% in its latest estimates), on average over 2025-2050 relative to CCC’s no-action baseline21.

Cost estimates are not the same as consumer impact, which is a function of policy and will not be

estimated in our analysis.

21 The Seventh Carbon Budget, Climate Change Committee, February 2025, p85

80/FES 2025/Whole System Opportunities on the Route to Net Zero

Alongside possible costs and savings, the decarbonised pathways see other changes that previous

analyses have identified as bringing benefits for job creation, reduced volatility and wider benefits, such

as on health.

Economic growth and job creation

There is a potential boost to GDP as the UK economy shifts away expenditure from imported fossil fuels to domestic investment in the UK. For example, a recent report by the CBI and ECIU22 notes that the net zero

sector has grown rapidly in recent years and is now directly or indirectly supporting just less than

1 million jobs, with employment typically in highly productive roles that pay higher than average wages.

Many of these roles are located outside London, with net zero employment providing a significant boost

to regional economies.

Reduced volatility and exposure to global fossil fuel price shocks

Fossil fuel price shocks have played a major role in economic downturns in the UK, with crude oil supply

shortages being a key contributor to the sharp drop in economic output in the early 1980s, with a 3.4% reduction in 1980, and the consequent rise in unemployment23.

More recently, the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 took place alongside tight supply side conditions in

the UK. This led to increased fossil fuel prices, subsequent increases in energy prices and rises in the cost of living for the UK population24, contributing to a recession and over £75 billion of government spending on energy support schemes25.

Recent modelling from the Office for Budget Responsibility26 also considers the potential macroeconomic

impacts of future gas price spikes taking place every decade, assuming the UK’s reliance on natural gas

does not change from today. This finds that there would be a material impact on inflation following each

spike and a cutback in domestic spending which reduces real GDP by around 1% (compared to baseline

assumptions) each time a gas price shock occurs.

Against this backdrop of exposure to international fossil fuel prices, the transition to net zero offers an

opportunity to protect the UK economy from global volatility. As the economy decarbonises, an increasing

proportion of the energy used in Great Britain will be produced domestically, reducing reliance on imported

fuels and improving energy security.

Non-monetised benefits

There are a number of co-benefits attributable to decarbonisation activity, such as positive health

outcomes due to warmer, less damp homes and improved air quality.

We have not attempted to quantify these in the pathways, but their potential impact is likely to be

significant. For example, the CCC estimates co-benefits in its Balanced Pathway as providing £2.4 to £8.2 billion per year in net benefit by 205027. Health benefits from improved air quality are the largest

contributor to those.

22 The Future is Green: The economic opportunities brought bythe UK’s net zero economy, February 2025, CBI Economics,

23 Fiscal risks and sustainability, July 2023 – CP 870, Office for Budget Responsibility, p70

24 The Seventh Carbon Budget, Climate Change Committee, 26 February 2025, p330

25 Economic and fiscal outlook - March 2023, Office for Budget Responsibility, p57

26 Fiscal risks and sustainability, July 2023 – CP 870, Office for Budget Responsibility, Chapter 3

27 The Seventh Carbon Budget, Climate Change Committee, 26 February 2025, Section 8.4

81/FES 2025/Whole System Opportunities on the Route to Net Zero

Policy has a key role in minimising cost

Policy has an important role in keeping costs as low as possible and our pathways suggest some

priority areas:

● Keeping costs of capital low. Our pathways (and others, such as the CCC’s Balanced Pathway)

see a shift away from operating costs towards capital investment. Well-designed policies and a

positive investment climate can support lower costs of capital and, therefore, lower costs overall.

The Contracts for Difference scheme for renewables is a good example of success on this point.

● Deploying lower cost technologies. In some cases, there are multiple low carbon options to choose

from. The lowest cost pathways will deploy the cheapest options most frequently.

● Ensuring efficient system dispatch. Beyond initial investment, there will be choices in how deployed

technologies are used. The lowest cost pathways will use the technologies with the lowest operating

costs the most and avoid dispatching those with higher costs ahead of their ‘merit order’.

● Coordination across the energy system. As decarbonisation progresses it will become ever more

important that there is coordination: across sectors, between demand, supply and flexibility, and

across energy production and networks for its transmission and distribution. If some areas do not

keep pace with others there is a risk of available low-cost energy being wasted and, if supply moves

ahead of demand, is a risk of overbuild and excessive investment spending.

The SSEP, due to be published in 2026, is a key tool in better coordination for Great Britain’s energy system. It

will design pathways to support the most economically efficient and spatially optimal pathway to net zero.

The first SSEP will include infrastructure for the generation and storage of electricity and hydrogen. Future

iterations could cover other energy vectors, like natural gas to encompass a cost-optimised plan for the

whole energy system.

82/FES 2025/Whole System Opportunities on the Route to Net Zero

Innovating across our pathways

Innovation is a vital force across our pathways. Many of the key technologies in

our pathways are technically feasible or commercially available today. However,

they may not be affordable for all industrial or domestic consumers, offer the

same convenience as fossil fuel technologies or be supported by the right business

models. Widespread adoption of low carbon technologies relies on these offering a

comparable or better option compared to fossil fuel-based technologies.

Today

2030

2040

2050

WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN IN OUR PATHWAYS

Acceleration

Growth

Horizon

Continuing funding for research

Increasing attractiveness and

Realising a broad range

and innovation across the

reduced costs of low carbon

of affordable, low carbon

whole energy system and

technologies for consumers

technologies across the

entire value chain

Continuing innovation across

Innovating in whole energy

the entire value chain for

market and policy to enable

core supply side technologies

acceleration of decarbonisation

such as renewables and

and reduction of costs

storage, to enable continued

for consumers

rapid deployment

energy system, alongside a

supportive policy, regulatory

and business ecosystem

Supporting initial deployment

and scaling of nascent

technologies such as

carbon removals

83/FES 2025/Whole System Opportunities on the Route to Net Zero

Innovation is essential across the entire energy sector value chain: design, manufacturing, construction

and installation, operation and maintenance, workforce training, digitalisation and data, policy, and

markets. This also extends to leveraging emerging opportunities as the nature of our energy system

changes, such as in flexibility. It can create new businesses and industries, increasing productivity and

export opportunities.

Low carbon technologies need to be both technically suitable and attractive to a range of consumers,

from residential to industrial, to drive widespread adoption.

s y a w h t a p e h t n

t n e m y o p e D

CO2

Carbon Removals

Renewable Generation

Heat Pumps

EVs

Energy Storage

Industrial Electrification

Demand flexibility

Industrial Hydrogen Utilisation

Hydrogen Production

Low carbon Dispatchable Generation

Less

Current readiness and attractiveness to deploy at levels seen in pathways

The government has, in recent years, been a significant enabler of energy innovation. As an example,

the headline £1bn Net Zero Innovation Portfolio (NZIP) has driven innovation and new jobs across dozens of projects and ten portfolio theme areas28. Analysis by the Startup Coalition29 using publicly available

information has estimated that 199 UK start-ups have received between £208-250m of NZIP funding, going

on to raise a further £500-900m of venture investments. This is equivalent to £2.40-£3.60 of private sector

investment for every £1 of NZIP funding received. The final government impact and economic assessment of NZIP is not expected until 202830.

Government should maintain a continued role in enabling energy innovation across the whole system,

entire value chain and at different technological readiness levels. This is essential if we are to accelerate

progress on decarbonisation by 2030, realise widespread adoption and deployment of low carbon

technologies through the 2030s and reach net zero by 2050.

28 Net Zero Innovation Portfolio, Gov.uk, 25 May 2023

29 Warm Words on Climate Innovation Must be Matched With Investment, Startup coalition, 04.04.25

30 Net Zero Innovation Portfolio and the Advanced Nuclear Fund: progress report 2021 to 2022, Gov.uk, 25 May 2023

H2H2

84/FES 2025/Whole System Opportunities on the Route to Net Zero

Exploring the extremes

Extreme weather, geopolitical conflict and financial shocks are examples

of the types of events which could have an impact on the energy system.

Extreme events can be wide reaching, affecting homes and businesses across the country. As the

energy system operator, NESO’s approach is to build resilience in to help manage the unexpected

without compromising the transition to a cleaner, smarter energy system.

NESO’s Resilience and Emergency Management function explores extreme impacts and the recently

published Resource Adequacy in the 2030s models the impact of extreme weather and technical outages

of equipment on security of supply. Analysis from FES 2024 was used as a basis for this and has been

incorporated into our FES 2025 analysis, particularly for unabated gas generation.

Extreme events could have wide-reaching and interlinking impacts.

Event

Results in

Impact

Cyber attacks

Loss of trust in smart tech

Global conflict/ geopolitical unrest

Extreme weather

Economic crisis

Fuel supply disruption / shortages

High gas prices

Infrastructure damage

Supply chain disruption

Changes to supply/ demand profiles

Withdrawal of investment in low carbon technology

Under delivery of low carbon technology

Lower renewable outputs

Demand suppression

Short term operability issues / long-term investment need

85/FES 2025/Whole System Opportunities on the Route to Net Zero

We must understand how impacts, regardless of cause, could challenge the core assumptions behind our

pathways and lead to deviations. We consider the uncertainty around demand and supply in our modelling,

such as future data centre demand, consumer engagement in demand flexibility and the levels of hydrogen

demand in industry. We have assessed where the impact of extreme events could differ from these.

How these events affect Great Britain’s ability to remain on track for net zero depends on various factors,

such as the duration of the event and the decarbonisation progress made up to that point. Many of these

impacts are also interlinked. Disrupted gas supplies could, for example, lead to high prices which, in turn,

leads to demand suppression.

Loss of trust in smart technology

Without trust in smart technology, the country would not see the level of demand side flexibility outlined in

our pathways. Any loss of trust towards the end of the growth and horizon waves could hold back the use

and effectiveness of any technology already installed. This would have the greatest impact in our Holistic

Transition and Electric Engagement pathways, which have higher levels of consumer engagement.

High international gas prices

Gas prices significantly influence emissions today while Great Britain relies heavily on gas for industry, heat

and power. Recent price spikes have increased electricity costs, with gas setting the marginal price. High

prices reduce emissions by discouraging gas use and incentivising investment in non-fossil technologies

for those able to do so. However, they also have a significant impact on consumer costs and affordability

of low carbon technologies. This reduces in the horizon wave as gas use substantially declines.

Under delivery of low carbon technology

If low carbon technology rollout falls below the levels in our pathways, homes, businesses and the power

sector will be reliant on natural gas. This would likely depend on existing systems and plant on both the

demand and supply sides of the energy system (for example, gas boilers and unabated gas power

stations) and would slow progress towards climate goals and leave the country vulnerable to price spikes.

Depending on the extent of delays, it could also move us closer to, or beyond the extents of, the Falling

Behind scenario. This would have a similar impact across all pathways, which rely on timely delivery of

roll-out of low carbon technology.

Low renewable output

Periods of low renewable output increase the need for unabated gas generation for security of supply,

increasing energy prices and emissions. While our pathways all see significant growth in renewable energy,

the impact of this on emissions reduces with increased reliance on long-duration energy storage (LDES)

and low carbon dispatchable power. Unabated gas remains in all pathways through the horizon wave.

Prolonged periods of low renewable output have been assessed quantitively in our Resource Adequacy In

The 2030s report.

Demand suppression

Reducing consumption today directly cuts emissions by reducing the need for fossil-fuelled heat,

transportation and power. An event like the energy crisis could again suppress gas heating demands

and associated emissions by 18%. As the country electrifies and emissions from heat, transport and

86/FES 2025/Whole System Opportunities on the Route to Net Zero

power reduce, the positive emissions impact of demand suppression reduces. Demand suppression has

a positive impact on security of supply today due to reduced stress on generation. In a net zero energy

system this will need to be managed through increased flexibility, exports or curtailment.

Increased demand

An increase in demand today would raises emissions due to the need for greater fossil-fuelled energy

production. This would have less impact in 2050 but would depend on the levels of low carbon flexibility

in the system. Without energy efficiency improvements, demand could be 23% (127 TWh) higher in 2050.

Any increase in population above that forecast would lead to increasing demand. Using 2022 high

demographic data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), there will be a population increase of one

million in 2050. This would increase peak electricity demand by 0.8 GW and annual electricity demand by

3.1 TWh.

Short-term operability issues and the need for long term investment

Emergency response plans are in place to deal with short-term operability issues caused by extreme

events. This often includes rerouting energy flows, deploying repair teams to quickly address damaged

infrastructure and coordinating reserve supplies and back-up systems to maintain service continuity.

87/FES 2025 87/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Pathway Insights

Navigating These Insights

Whole System Emissions

Shaping Energy: The Consumer

Powering the System: Electricity Supply

Fuelling the System

126

151

88/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Navigating These Insights

Future Energy Scenario outputs

Our three net zero pathways, Falling Behind and 10 Year Forecast are denoted by a set colour palette, which features across many of our graphs in the Future Energy Scenarios 2025 Data Workbook.

You will see these colours referenced within the ‘modelling assumptions’ tables across our factsheets.

The key differences between these are explained on page 20 in the Executive Summary of the document.

91/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Whole System Emissions

Emissions | Carbon budgets (cont.)

What we modelled

Table 6: A list of key inputs and outputs from our FES 2025 models covering carbon budgets.

Modelling assumptions

Holistic Transition

Electric Engagement

Hydrogen Evolution

10 Year Forecast

Falling Behind

Carbon budget target

Fifth Carbon Budget (2028-2032):

Fourth Carbon Budget (2023-2027):

1,950 MtCO2e 1,725 MtCO2e 965 MtCO2e Seventh* Carbon Budget (2038-2042): 535 MtCO2e *advisory only. Government will formally set the level by June 2026

Sixth Carbon Budget (2033-2037):

Fourth 1,936

Fourth 1,942

Fourth 1,943

Fourth 2,015

Fourth

1,995

Emissions during carbon budget period32

Fifth

1,476

Fifth

1,514

Fifth

1,523

Fifth

1,746

Fifth

Sixth

925

Sixth

963

Sixth

1,020

Sixth

1,823

1,536

Seventh 508

Seventh 522

Seventh 594

Seventh 1,308

Beyond the model

Achieving Carbon Budgets will require rapid acceleration of decarbonisation across the entire

economy. By the Sixth Carbon Budget period, there is little emissions headroom even with the use

of all decarbonisation options available. This includes mass rollout of heat pumps, electric vehicles,

clean power, carbon capture and storage (CCS) and even some use of engineered carbon

removals. Progress needs to continue to accelerate in all areas.

32 Additional actions would be required for Hydrogen Evolution to achieve the Sixth Carbon Budget. These could include some or all of

the following: higher levels of engineered carbon removals, such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), lower heating emissions (for instance, due to milder winters in the 2030s as a result of climate change) or taking steps to further reduce emissions in sectors that fall outside our modelling, such as agriculture or aviation. As we need to explore a range of BECCS deployment levels in our pathways, they have not been increased in Hydrogen Evolution to achieve the targets.

Beyond the model

The ‘beyond the model’ sections of our factsheets detail general assumptions that would need to happen for the pathways to be possible. These are assumptions on factors that are not directly captured within our models.

Acronyms We use common industry acronyms throughout this report, including the factsheets. Please refer to the glossary at the end of this document for a full list of acronyms featured within this publication. build rate limits for solar and onshore wind.

Inputs You can find a list of the key inputs that underpin the modelling of specific energy vectors and technologies in the ‘modelling assumptions’ tables across the factsheets. These inputs are determined through a mix of stakeholder collaboration, research and external data sources from organisations such as the Climate Change Committee.

For a comprehensive list of our inputs and key assumptions, please refer to the Future Energy Scenarios Pathway Assumptions 2025 document, which can be found via our FES homepage on the NESO website.

Outputs We also list the key outputs of our modelling in the ‘modelling assumptions’ tables across the factsheets – these outputs are a result or consequence that emerge from the input, assumptions and modelling logic applied under certain constraints or scenarios.

For a comprehensive list of our outputs, please refer to the Future Energy Scenarios 2025 Data Workbook, which can also be found via our FES homepage on the NESO website.

Minimum and maximum build out rates Minimum and maximum build out rates are set for generation capacities, and optimised in our capacity expansion module. These are included to capture variables that are not within the modelling, such as land constraints, grid constraints and policy ambition. This includes minimum build rates for nuclear and offshore wind and maximum build rate limits for solar and onshore wind.

89/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Whole System Emissions

CO2

2050

Emissions | Carbon budgets

Emissions | Whole economy emissions

CO2

2050

CO2

90/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Emissions | Carbon budgets

w e v r e v O

Carbon budgets are legally binding

The Sixth Carbon Budget (2033–2037) presents

emissions limits that encompass a five-year

an immense challenge, as it is the first net

window of emissions in the UK.

zero compliant carbon budget. To maximise

There are a variety of routes by which we could

decarbonise to achieve the Fourth (2023–2027)

and Fifth (2028–2032) Carbon Budget, though

these were set under the Climate Change

Act’s former target of an 80% greenhouse gas

reduction by 2050.

our opportunity to meet these targets, we

need to use a variety of rapid and deep

decarbonisation options, and

must scale many of these

now to ensure we are

decarbonising at a

sufficient pace.

The government must formally set the level of the Seventh Carbon Budget period (2038-2042) by June 2026.

Accumulated emissions for carbon budget period

Whole System Emissions1,936 1,476 925 508 227 447 42 27 1,942 1,514 963 522 221 409 4 13 1,943 1,523 1,020 594 220 400 1,995 1,823 1,536 1,308 168 101 - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500Fourth Carbon Budget2023-27Fifth Carbon Budget2028-32Sixth Carbon Budget2033-37Seventh Carbon Budget2038-42 (advisory only)MtCO2e Holistic Transition Electric Engagement Hydrogen Evolution Falling BehindHydrogen Evolution and the Falling Behindbothexceed the Sixth Carbon Budget and the recommended level of the Seventh Carbon Budget.The shaded area and numberabove each bar are the remaining Carbon Budget in each pathway.91/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Emissions | Carbon budgets (cont.)

What we modelled

Table 6: A list of key inputs and outputs from our FES 2025 models covering carbon budgets.

Modelling assumptions

Holistic Transition

Electric Engagement

Hydrogen Evolution

10 Year Forecast

Falling Behind

Carbon budget target

Fifth Carbon Budget (2028-2032):

Fourth Carbon Budget (2023-2027):

1,950 MtCO2e 1,725 MtCO2e 965 MtCO2e Seventh* Carbon Budget (2038-2042): 535 MtCO2e *advisory only. Government will formally set the level by June 2026

Sixth Carbon Budget (2033-2037):

Fourth 1,936

Fourth 1,942

Fourth 1,943

Fourth 2,015

Fourth

1,995

Emissions during carbon budget period31

Fifth

1,476

Fifth

1,514

Fifth

1,523

Fifth

1,746

Fifth

Sixth

925

Sixth

963

Sixth

1,020

Sixth

1,823

1,536

Seventh 508

Seventh 522

Seventh 594

Seventh

1,308

Beyond the model

Achieving Carbon Budgets will require rapid acceleration of decarbonisation across the entire

economy. By the Sixth Carbon Budget period, there is little emissions headroom even with the use

of all decarbonisation options available. This includes mass rollout of heat pumps, electric vehicles,

clean power, carbon capture and storage (CCS) and even some use of engineered carbon

removals. Progress needs to continue to accelerate in all areas.

31 Additional actions would be required for Hydrogen Evolution to achieve the Sixth Carbon Budget. These could include some or all of the following: higher levels of engineered carbon removals, such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), lower heating emissions (for instance, due to milder winters in the 2030s as a result of climate change) or taking steps to further reduce emissions in sectors that fall outside our modelling, such as agriculture or aviation. As we need to explore a range of BECCS deployment levels in our pathways, they have not been increased in Hydrogen Evolution to achieve the targets.

Whole System Emissions92/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Emissions | Whole economy emissions

w e v r e v O

Achieving net zero is possible, but the road from here requires greater decarbonisation efforts in sectors beyond power, such as transport and heating. Many of the required technologies, such as wind, solar and electric vehicles, have a track record of delivery at scale in the UK and

internationally. Some others, like low-carbon hydrogen production and carbon capture, are

technically feasible but have a smaller record of deployment at scale. The challenge is to make

sure they are attractive, affordable and adoptable for all consumers who will require them.

Greenhouse gas emissions over time and nationally determined contributions

What we modelled

Table 7: A list of key inputs and outputs from our FES 2025 models covering emissions.

Road and rail currently has the highest emissions of any single sector at 102 MtCO2e in 2023.

Modelling assumptions

Holistic Transition

Electric Engagement

Hydrogen Evolution

10 Year Forecast

Falling Behind

Meeting 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution target of 261 MtCO2e

Meeting 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution target of 155 MtCO2e

Emissions in 2050

261

154

-6

273

161

-2

273

172

304

241

N/A

330

272

187

Non-modelled sectors

Emissions were taken from CCC’s CB7 Balanced Pathway for agriculture, aviation, shipping, waste, fluorinated gases, BECCS for biofuels, fuel supply and LULUCF.

Approach from DESNZ Carbon Calculator, as used in FES 2024

Beyond the model Our pathways show that a range of technologies and approaches are required across all

sectors to reach net zero. Delaying decarbonisation progress will, at the very least, mean

failing to meet interim carbon budgets, necessitating even deeper and faster emissions

reductions in later decades.

Whole System EmissionsFalling BehindIn Falling Behind, emissions fall to 22% of 1990 levels by 2050.2030 NDC2035 NDCTen Year Forecast01002003004005002020202520302035204020452050MtCO2eOnly Holistic Transition meets the 2030 and 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets.NDCs exclude IAS but include all UK crown dependency emissions. In-scope emissions are shown in the bars.UK emissions over time, including international aviation and shipping (IAS), are shown in the solid lines.Holistic TransitionElectric EngagementHydrogen EvolutionEmissions | Carbon budgets 90

Emissions | Whole economy emissions

93/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Shaping Energy: The Consumer

Transport | Electric cars

Transport | Other vehicles

Residential | Appliances

Residential | Thermal efficiency

Residential | Gas and hydrogen for heat

Residential | Heat pumps

Residential | Other heating technologies

Commercial | Heat

Commercial | Data centres

Commercial | Electricity demand

Industry | Gas demand

Industry | Electricity demand

Industry | Hydrogen demand

Aggregate | Demand flexibility

Aggregate | Consumer demand

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

116

118

120

124

H2H2

94/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Transport | Electric cars

w e v r e v O

Road transport is the largest emitting sector

combustion engine (ICE) vehicles continue to

– double any other sector modelled within FES

contribute to a lack of uptake, although this is

– with cars making up approximately half of

quickly reducing, with many new EV models

road transport demand and emissions.

now costing less than their ICE equivalents and

For a breakdown of emissions per sector,

please refer to page 29 of the report.

With the UK Government’s Zero Emission

Vehicles (ZEV) mandate firmly established for

widespread purchase cost parity expected in

the coming years. November and December

2024 saw high EV sales through competitive

pricing and increased promotion – December

2024 even saw EVs achieve the highest sales of

the sale of new EV cars and vans out until 2035,

all fuel types.

the transport sector has the power to be a

positive driver of decarbonisation.

In 2024, 19.6% of new car sales were EVs,

showing that mandate figures were only

achieved by using flexibilities permitted

through methods such as credit offsetting.

The 2024 EV sales figure is marginally lower

than required in our FES 2024 net zero

pathways, making it imperative that sales of

new low carbon vehicles strive to hit mandated

targets to help achieve Great Britain’s wider

net zero targets. Factors including price

differentiation between EVs and internal

Consumer confidence in communal charging,

on average, is growing as Great Britain’s

public and destination charging infrastructure

continues to expand and, with contactless

payment availability on >8kW chargers

improving, aiding convenience and user

experience. Despite this, public charging costs

are often higher than refuelling ICE vehicles,

creating inequality and little incentive to

adopt EVs for those without lower-cost home

charging, continually cited as a significant

blocker for EV adoption for those that have not

yet made the switch.

Electric cars on the road

20,000+ new public charge points installed in the UK in 2024, bringing the total number across the country to 74,000 — an increase of 38% compared to the previous year32.

32 EV charging statistics 2025, Zapmap

Shaping Energy: The ConsumerFalling BehindHydrogen EvolutionElectric EngagementHolistic TransitionTen Year Forecast 0 10 20 30 402020202520302035204020452050Millions All car sales from 2030 onwards are zero emission in the net zero pathwaysPathways differ in later years due to different shared transport, public transport and active travel assumptions95/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Transport | Electric cars (cont.)

Stakeholder views

How we addressed feedback

Most stakeholders felt the ZEV mandate is

The speed of EV adoption has increased in FES

challenging, but some stakeholders felt it is

2025 and the net zero pathways are faster than

possible to go faster due to increasing economic

the ZEV mandate to meet emissions targets. The

competitiveness of battery electric cars.

Ten Year Forecast and Falling Behind are slower

Purchase cost difference between new EV and ICE vehicles reducing, with EVs 51% more expensive in 2018 down to 18% more expensive in 202433.

than the ZEV mandate targets, in line with most

stakeholder feedback.

EVs are now able to last as long and drive as many miles as an ICE equivalent34.

What we modelled Table 8: A list of key outputs from our FES 2025 models covering energy demand from cars (both ICE and ZEVs).

Modelling assumptions

Holistic Transition

Electric Engagement

Hydrogen Evolution

10 Year Forecast

Falling Behind

No more new ICE sales

No more new PHEV sales, all new sales are only pure EV

Total EVs on the road in 2050. Differences due to levels of shared transport, public transport and active travel

2030

2035

2040

31.5m

33.4m

36.1m

N/A

35.2m

Beyond the model

EV charger deployment focuses on improving access for those without home charging. Building on the total number of chargers in relation

to EVs on the road to date, future deployment of

chargers meets the needs of consumers without

access to home charging, alongside growth in rapid

en-route chargers across all regions of Great Britain.

This helps to remove the regional divide.

Public charging rates are reduced to ensure EVs offer

a lower fuel cost than ICE equivalents. Measures such

as reducing VAT on public charging to align with home

electricity rates, and reducing standing and capacity

costs for charge point operators improve equity for EV

ownership for those without home chargers.

Growth in en-route charging infrastructure

facilitates the uptake of smaller, more

affordable EVs by reducing the perceived

need for higher range vehicles. This

promotes the mass market uptake of EVs.

The manufacture of smaller vehicles lower

embodied emissions from manufacturing

and higher efficiencies are encouraged.

Clear, up-to-date information on EVs and

charging is promoted while removing old or

inaccurate information. Consumers are informed

of the approaching cost parity, the benefits of off-

peak charging, charger availability, actual range

requirements, driver experience and that high power

charger costs are not the normal way for most

consumers to charge.

33 Closing the gap: the progress towards affordable EVs and the rising competition from China, Jato

34 Electric cars: Facts and figures, Autotrader

Shaping Energy: The Consumer£96/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Transport | Other vehicles

w e v r e v O

Vans and heavy goods vehicles (HGV) are

Buses are decarbonising faster than other

starting to decarbonise, gradually following

transport sectors. Although the number of

the car market. The ZEV mandate for vans

registered hydrogen buses and coaches on

has created policy certainty for industry and is demonstrated by the fact that 52%35 of all

the road is decreasing, as access and cost

of hydrogen remain a

new van models were battery EVs at the

challenge for transport,

start of 2025.

Currently, there are limited low carbon HGVs

on the road, but developments in the vehicles

and chargers alongside growing orders show

the potential.

electrification of this

sector is progressing

well as the technology

develops.

Energy demand for road transport reduces to a third of 2024 demand in 2050.

Road transport energy demand

35 Electric van demand static in 2024 despite biggest overall market in three years, SMMT

Shaping Energy: The Consumer05010015020025030035040010YFHTHTEEHEFB202420352050TWhVehiclesPetrol/DieselBuses HydrogenBuses ElectricityHGVs HydrogenHGVs ElectricityMotorbikesElectricityVans ElectricityCars ElectricityEVs operate at higher efficiencies than alternative fuel options, therefore have lower annual energy demand 97/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Transport | Other vehicles (cont.)

Stakeholder views

How we addressed feedback

Most stakeholders expressed a preference

Reduced amount of hydrogen in HGVs

for battery HGVs over hydrogen. They also

across pathways and increased amount of

suggested a slower shift away from diesel

diesel HGVs in Falling Behind.

HGVs in Falling Behind compared to

FES 2024.

What we modelled

Table 9: A list of key outputs from our FES 2025 models covering energy demand from other

electric vehicles.

Modelling assumptions

Holistic Transition

Electric Engagement

Hydrogen Evolution

10 Year Forecast

Falling Behind

Vans on the road in 2035 that are EVs

Buses on the road in 2035 that are EVs

Share of HGVs on the road that are electric and hydrogen in 2050

Beyond the model

56%

52%

56%

52%

56%

53%

46%

40%

33%

27%

93%, 7%

98%, 2%

65%, 35%

N/A

71%, 0%

Policies like the ZEV mandate are applied to other vehicle sectors to increase certainty

for the industry and encourage investment. Petrol and diesel phase-out dates are

confirmed for all vehicle sectors to drive this confidence.

A nationwide high-power charging infrastructure for HGVs, buses and coaches is

deployed. This is enabled by faster grid connections for en-route charging hubs for

large and commercial vehicles.

Shaping Energy: The Consumer98/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Residential | Appliances

w e v r e v O

Our residential appliance modelling covers

0.3 TWh demand. The energy demand of air

all demand in residential properties other

condition units still face uncertainty, with their

than demand associated with transport or

adoption and usage dependent on climate

space and hot water heating.

change and associated extreme heat events,

Historic trends have reduced residential

appliance demand due to efficiency

improvements. This has mainly come from

legislation on phasing out less efficient

lighting. Looking forward, the efficiency

improvements for residential appliances

include fridges, freezers, TVs, home computing

and cooking appliances (appliances that are

projected to continue to be widely used).

Air conditioning is currently estimated to be

used in 3% of homes today, equating to a

as well as upfront costs for consumers.

The impact of climate change is expected

to be greater post-2050.

Growing population and

changes in appliance

ownership and usage

patterns also play

an important role in

changing appliance

demand.

Appliance efficiency improvements reduce peak demand by 4 GW in Holistic Transition, equivalent of four power stations, by 2035.

Residential electricity demand for appliances in Holistic Transition

Shaping Energy: The ConsumerLightingOther appliancesAir conditioning020406080202520302035204020452050TWh99/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Residential | Appliances (cont.)

Stakeholder views

How we addressed feedback

Stakeholder consensus was that air

We have increased the minimum growth

conditioning growth is inevitable. The

of air conditioning and modelled the

majority of stakeholders said that cooking

electrification of all residential cooking by

demand would be electrified instead of fuel

2050 across all pathways.

switching to hydrogen, due to the popularity

of induction hobs.

What we modelled

Table 10: A list of key inputs and outputs from our FES 2025 models covering energy demand from

residential appliances.

2035

2050

Modelling assumptions

Ten Year Forecast

Holistic Transition

Electric Engagement

Hydrogen Evolution

Falling Behind

Homes with air conditioning

Air conditioning demand

10%

20%

40%

0.8 TWh

0.5 TWh

1.1 TWh

2.1 TWh

4.3 TWh

Lighting demand

4.2 TWh

4.0 TWh

2.1 TWh

2.4 TWh

3.2 TWh

Other appliance demand

Beyond the model

57.6 TWh

53.3 TWh

50.3 TWh

55 TWh

61.4 TWh

Minimum efficiency of appliances and lighting increase over time, continuing the

trend of reducing demand for consumers.

Passive cooling measures become widely used to limit the need for air conditioning

and to reduce overheating, especially for lower income consumers and those in

vulnerable situations. New buildings to include best passive cooling practices.

Shaping Energy: The Consumer100/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Residential | Thermal efficiency

w e v r e v O

Thermal efficiency measures include any

emissions from gas boilers and, in the long-

actions that reduce underlying thermal

term, they reduce the need for network

demand from heating buildings – this

investment and generation capacity.

includes draught proofing and insulation

improvements to roofs, walls, windows and

hot water tanks.

The term ‘thermal efficiency’ also includes how

consumers change their heating patterns,

as seen in the energy crisis, when high costs

Thermal efficiency measures reduce

suppressed energy demand. In 2023, at the

consumer bills, but despite this, all thermal

high point of high energy costs, consumers

efficiency has seen limited deployment over

reduced their demand by 18% (equivalent to

the last decade relative to housing stock

a 1.5°C reduction to thermostats) but by 2024

needs. Although there is now insufficient time

this demand suppression started to reduce.

for a ‘fabric-first’ approach, and it is more

widely accepted that high insulation levels

are not required for heat pumps, there are

still benefits to quick deployment of thermal

efficiency measures as they decrease

The graph below shows thermal efficiency

measures for retrofit and improved new build

standards. It also shows the behavioural

measure changes relative to the baseline of

2020, pre-energy crisis.

Residential fuel demand savings from insulation improvements and behavioural change

Shaping Energy: The ConsumerBehavioural SavingsFalling BehindHydrogen EvolutionElectric EngagementHolistic TransitionTen Year Forecast0102030405060702020202520302035204020452050TWhDemand suppression due to energy crisisDashed behavioural savings arecommon across all scenarios.Solid lines show the insulationsavings for each scenario.Savings reduce from 2035 dueto continued fuel switching tomore efficient technologies.101/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Residential | Thermal efficiency (cont.)

Stakeholder views

How we addressed feedback

Most stakeholders expressed a lack of

To meet the 2030 emissions targets,

enthusiasm for thermal efficiency measures

deployment of thermal efficiency measures

due to rising costs. They advised it was

was retained in the pathways as this reduces

important for consumers to understand that

gas demands. Lower levels are used in Falling

high levels of insulation are not essential for

Behind and the Ten Year Forecast.

having a heat pump.

What we modelled

Table 11: A list of key inputs and outputs from our FES 2025 models covering residential thermal efficiency.

Modelling assumptions

Thermostat turn down/ Demand suppression

All new homes built to future homes standard

Fuel savings from thermal measures by 2035

Beyond the model

Holistic Transition

Electric Engagement

Hydrogen Evolution

10 Year Forecast

Falling Behind

Tapers out by 2029

2027

2031

29 TWh

30 TWh

31 TWh

13 TWh

6 TWh

Deployment of thermal efficiency measures doubles to reduce emissions in the

short term.

There is consistent, long-term support for thermal efficiency measures to reinforce

the future system network benefits, whilst enabling the industry to build back up.

Insulation quality standards are high to prevent downstream issues and encourage

higher uptake.

Shaping Energy: The Consumer102/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Residential | Gas and hydrogen for heat

w e v r e v O

Gas demand is starting to return to pre-energy crisis levels, with less demand suppression in

2024 compared to 2023.

This suppression tapers out over the next 5 years in our analysis. Gas demand for heating needs

to reduce to meet the 2030s emissions targets, mainly through electrified heating, however there is still a low public recognition of the need to reduce emissions from heating36 which

needs to be overcome. Ahead of a government decision on the use of hydrogen for heating,

our FES pathways continue to consider all potential options for the use of hydrogen in heating –

from hydrogen boilers in homes to a secondary fuel in district heating.

Annual natural gas and low carbon hydrogen demand for residential heat

In the 2030s gas demand for heat reduces by ~160 TWh in all pathways.

Stakeholder views

How we addressed feedback

Most stakeholders felt that hydrogen would

We have reduced the use of hydrogen

be expensive for heating homes and may

for heating across all pathways, but kept

only be available near industrial clusters if

options until the UK Government decision

used at all.

is made.

36 NESO Whole Energy Insight - Decarbonising Heat: Consumer Choice and Affordability

Shaping Energy: The ConsumerHydrogen-HydrogenEvolutionHydrogen-HolisticTransitionGas-FallingBehindGas-Hydrogen EvolutionGas-Electric EngagementGas-Holistic TransitionGas-Ten YearForecast0501001502002503003502020202520302035204020452050TWhDemand suppression due to energy crisisH2103/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Residential | Gas and hydrogen for heat (cont.)

What we modelled

Table 12: A list of key inputs and outputs from our FES 2025 models covering residential

gas and hydrogen for heating.

Modelling assumptions

Holistic Transition

Electric Engagement

Hydrogen Evolution

10 Year Forecast

Falling Behind

No new gas connections

2027

2031

No gas boiler installs

2035

No oil boiler installs

2029

N/A

(Gas boilers never phased out)

(Oil boilers never phased out)

Access to hydrogen for heat

Gas demand for residential heating in 2035

Hydrogen demand for residential heating in 2050

Beyond the model

District heating

None

National network

None

218 TWh

221 TWh

218 TWh

269 TWh

281 TWh

1 TWh

0 TWh

69 TWh

N/A

0 TWh

Electricity prices reduce comparatively to gas, making heat pumps cheaper to

operate on a flat tariff. Alongside this, hybrid natural gas heat pump systems are no

longer installed, as they are not net zero compliant.

Direction from UK Government on the use of hydrogen for heating homes is announced.

In our Hydrogen Evolution pathway, Government reduces the cost of hydrogen for heating

for consumers through operational subsidies. In Holistic Transition, hydrogen acts as a

secondary fuel in industrial clusters at district heating energy centres, used to reduce peak

electricity demand. Hydrogen is not used for heat in our Electric Engagement pathway, this

is also the same for our Falling Behind and the 10 Year Forecast.

Shaping Energy: The ConsumerH2104/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Residential | Heat pumps

w e v r e v O

Decarbonisation of heat is one of the biggest

already, due to lower electricity prices in

challenges to achieving net zero, with three

comparison to gas. These high-efficiency

key barriers: lack of consumer awareness,

units are suitable for many homes and will

high one-off upfront transition costs and too long a payback time relative to a gas boiler.37

be the default low carbon solution for most

residential houses, with other low carbon

Despite this, 2024 saw a 56% increase38 in heat

pump sales compared to 2023, driven largely

by continuing the £7,500 Boiler Upgrade

Scheme (BUS) grant that was increased in

October 2023 to support the one-off transition

cost to a heat pump system.

technologies available for applications where

heat pumps may not be the most economical

or practical solution. The average unit today

operates with a Seasonal Coefficient of

Performance (SCOP) efficiency of 2.9 (how

many units of heat are generated per unit

of electricity used), although

Our neighbours across Europe are showing

what is possible with higher heat pump

deployment, with multiple Scandinavian

countries driving heat pumps as the main

replacement solution for heating systems

heat pumps have much

higher potential if

correctly installed and

configured.

Heat pump stock

Heat pumps operate at less than a fifth of associated emissions compared to gas boilers in 2024.39 This will continue to reduce as power decarbonises.

37 NESO Whole Energy Insight – Decarbonising Heat: Consumer Choice and Affordability

38 Statistics, Heat Pump Asscociation

39 NESO Whole Energy Insight – Britain’s Electricity Explained: 2024 Review

Shaping Energy: The Consumer105/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Residential | Heat pumps (cont.)

Stakeholder views

How we addressed feedback

All stakeholders felt that 600,000 heat

Heat pump uptake has been reduced within

pump annual installations by 2028 is

the pathway constraints on emissions

unlikely to be achieved if current barriers –

reductions and SCOP values have been

predominantly high electricity costs – remain.

reduced across pathways, Falling Behind and

Most stakeholders suggested that FES 2024

the Ten Year Forecast.

projections for SCOP were too optimistic,

with Holistic Transition reaching 3.8 and both

Electric Engagement and Hydrogen Evolution

reaching 3.4 by 2035.

What we modelled

Table 13: A list of key inputs and outputs from our FES 2025 models covering energy demand from

residential heat pumps.

Modelling assumptions

SCOP value by 2035 (compared to 2.9 today)

Only heat pumps or low carbon district heating in new builds

Heat pump uptake by 2028

Beyond the model

Holistic Transition

Electric Engagement

Hydrogen Evolution

10 Year Forecast

Falling Behind

3.5

3.1

Maintain 2.9 Maintain 2.9

2027

2031

553,217

537,719

537,546

365,681

242,328

Increased consumer and installer awareness on the importance of decarbonising heat

and of the range of low carbon heating technologies is achieved.

Ongoing equitable support or incentives with the high one-off transition cost. Electricity

prices are reduced compared to gas, making heat pumps cheaper to operate on a flat

tariff than gas boilers. Financing mechanisms to reduce the payback period of heat pumps

relative to gas boilers.

Clean Heat Market Mechanism continues out to a full new gas boiler install phase out in

2035, allowing the supply chain and skills to build up.

Shaping Energy: The Consumer106/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Residential | Other heating technologies

w e v r e v O

Here we present other heating technologies

direct electric heating system that does

not covered in dedicated pages, focusing on

not include any thermal storage from room

low carbon district heating, electric storage

storage heaters or central storage heaters,

and electric resistive heating systems.

these are used in 2.7% of homes today. Both

Today, 0.6% of homes are heated from low

carbon district heating and 2.4% are heated

from fossil fuel communal heating (which will

need to transition to using clean sources).

Electric storage is any direct electric heating

system that includes a way to store thermal

energy, from traditional methods to new

emerging technologies, these are used in

5.7% of homes today. Electric resistive is any

types of direct electric systems are popular

in smaller homes that have

lower heating demand,

where there is less

justification for

higher purchase

cost technologies

that have lower

running costs.

The 17% of homes using direct electric heating account for 37% of electricity demand for heat in 2050 in Electric Engagement.

Residential heating technology mix today, in 2035 and 2050

Shaping Energy: The Consumer051015202530354010YFHTEEHEHTCF202420352050MillionsGas boilerOther fossilElectric resistiveElectric storageGSHPASHPHybrid (ASHP +Hydrogen boiler)Hydrogen boilerBiofuel boiler (inc.hybrid)District heatingCommunity01020304010YFHTHTEEHEFB202420352050MillionsFossil fuel communalheatingLow carbon districtheatingBiofuel boiler (inc. hybrid)Hydrogen boilerHybrid (ASHP + Hydrogenboiler)ASHPGSHPElectric storageElectric resistiveOther fossilGas boiler107/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Residential | Other heating technologies

(cont.)

What we modelled

Table 14: A list of key outputs from our FES 2025 models covering energy demand from other residential

heating technologies.

2035

2050

Modelling assumptions

Ten Year Forecast

Holistic Transition

Electric Engagement

Hydrogen Evolution

Falling Behind

Homes using low carbon district heating

Homes using electric storage

Homes using electric resistive

Beyond the model

2.5%

2.9%

22.0%

18.4%

12.4%

10.7%

4.7%

4.8%

5.8%

1.7%

1.5%

4.1%

11.8%

5.6%

9.1%

4.1%

5.1%

9.1%

Clear prioritisation of heating systems is given to provide certainty for industry

and drive consumer adoption towards efficient technologies. Direct electric heating

systems may become more popular when fossil fuel is phased out due to lower

upfront installation costs than heat pump systems, as found in a Public First and NESO Decarbonising Heat: Consumer Choice and Affordability survey40.

The popularity of direct electric heating could also increase as homes become

better insulated and their demand lowers.

District heating is the first option considered for areas identified in a heat network zone

and for new build estates. Heat pumps are then the default next option, and the only

other option for new builds. Flexibility is then prioritised with electric storage, with the final

option being electric resistive that doesn’t provide flexibility, but only where other solutions aren’t feasible.

40 NESO Whole Energy Insight - Decarbonising Heat: Consumer Choice and Affordability

Shaping Energy: The Consumer 108/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Commercial | Heat

w e v r e v O

Unlike residential homes, industrial and commercial buildings currently use a larger variety

of space and hot water heating technologies.

Electric resistive heating is used in 42% of non-residential buildings, however as these

tend to be smaller buildings with lower demand, they only contribute 12% of fuel demand

for non-residential spaces and hot water heating. Fossil fuels provided 84% of the heat

demand to non-residential buildings in 2024.

Non-residential heating technology mix today, in 2035 and 2050

Stakeholder views

How we addressed feedback

The majority of stakeholders advised that

The commercial share of district heating

district heat networks would be most

connections has increased relative to

suitable for dense urban areas, particularly

residential buildings across all pathways,

in commercial buildings. They did however

Falling Behind and the Ten Year Forecast.

acknowledge the challenges of retrofitting

existing heating technologies.

Shaping Energy: The Consumer0.000.250.500.751.001.251.5010YFHTHTEEHEFB202420352050MillionsFossil fuel communalheatingLow carbon districtheatingBiofuel boiler (inc.hybrid)Hydrogen boilerHybrid (ASHP +Hydrogen boiler)ASHPGSHPElectric storageElectric resistiveOther fossilGas boilerData includes industrial and commercial buildings, where 90% are commercial109/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Commercial | Heat (cont.)

What we modelled

Table 15: A list of key outputs from our FES 2025 models covering energy demand from

commercial heating.

2035

2050

Industrial and commercial buildings in our analysis

Ten Year Forecast

Holistic Transition

Electric Engagement

Hydrogen Evolution

Falling Behind

Heat pumps

21%

30%

58%

District heating

Electric storage

Electric resistive

29%

26%

57%

24%

59%

14%

32%

12%

26%

Beyond the model

There are no new fossil fuel boiler installations in new buildings after 2026, or in any

buildings after 2035.

Commercial buildings act as anchor loads to heat networks, securing viability of

their development.

More efficient heating systems, such as low carbon district heating and heat

pumps, are prioritised over less efficient technologies.

Shaping Energy: The Consumer110/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Commercial | Data centres

w e v r e v O

We define ‘data centre demand’ as

Great Britain compared to other competitive

demand from dedicated buildings for

global markets. The demand shown below

computing, excluding servers within

covers electricity demand, however many

other commercial buildings.

data centres may install on-site generation,

Data centre demand in Great Britain is

estimated at 7.6 TWh from the 2.4 GW

connected facilities, mainly for traditional

services such as banking, which often requires

close proximity to London. We expect future

data centres to be increasingly utilised for

AI, which may result in less importance on

location and latency issues, compared to the

existing data centre fleet.

often as a backup for security of supply –

this generation is captured within our supply

modelling. With sufficiently strong locational

signals, we anticipate a maximum of 20%

of future data centre demand could be

located in Scotland, helping reduce network

constraints. Cold thermal storage can allow

shifting of cooling demand

away from peak times

and further operational

Government’s creation of the AI Opportunities

Action Plan shows ambition in the field. The

main uncertainty for future data centre

demand is how much will be located within

flexibility may also

be possible for

non time critical

operations.

46% of global data centre demand comes from the USA, followed by Germany and the UK, both requiring around 4%

Electricity demand for data centres

Shaping Energy: The ConsumerFalling BehindHydrogen EvolutionElectric EngagementHolistic TransitionTen Year Forecast01020304050607080202520302035204020452050TWh111/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Commercial | Data centres (cont.)

Stakeholder views

How we addressed feedback

Some stakeholders have said the

Data centre building efficiency improvements

improvement rate for data centre site energy

have been limited and ramp-up rates of sites

efficiency was too high in FES 2024. Growth

to full commercial load is faster across all

rates were generally correct, but ramp-up

pathways. Maximum data centre demand

rates were too conservative. Stakeholders

has also been increased.

suggested a faster ramp-up rate and having

a pathway with high data centre demand.

What we modelled

Table 16: A list of key outputs from our FES 2025 models covering energy demand from data centres.

Modelling assumptions

Holistic Transition

Electric Engagement

Hydrogen Evolution

10 Year Forecast

Falling Behind

2035 electricity demand

37 TWh

41 TWh

30 TWh

33 TWh

20 TWh

2050 electricity demand

65 TWh

71 TWh

51 TWh

2050 connections

14.1 GW

14.6 GW

9.9 GW

N/A

30 TWh

6.1 GW

Beyond the model

Data centre locations are optimised and operated flexibly (where possible) alongside

other data centre requirements.

Holistic Transition and Electric Engagement’s high levels of demand are met from

strong support at both national and local level, alongside a competitive data centre

market in Great Britain.

Shaping Energy: The Consumer112/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Commercial | Electricity demand

w e v r e v O

Data centre growth and electrification of

NHS electrical medical equipment – makes up

heating (covered in page 108 and page

the majority of commercial electricity demand

111) are the key influencers of change for

today at 66 TWh.

commercial sector demand.

Fossil fuel use in the commercial sector

Alongside data centres and heating,

(outside of space and hot water heating)

commercial demand also comes from

comes from 9 TWh of gas use, mainly from

lighting and other general requirements in

catering, and 13 TWh of diesel use for off-road

these types of buildings. Below, we show how

agriculture and construction vehicles. Off-

all elements come together to create the total

road sectors offer valuable opportunities for

commercial electricity demand figure. This

hydrogen use, due to charging infrastructure

broad range – from supermarket fridges to

challenges for electric off-road vehicles.

Electricity demand in the commercial sector in Holistic Transition

Stakeholder views

Most stakeholders felt that energy efficiency

progress is slower than expected but noted

where measures have been implemented

(particularly in lighting and building

structures) they have exceeded forecasts

– supermarkets are actively pursuing

these gains. Some stakeholders suggested

that grid capacity issues are hindering

deep electrification of gas loads. Several

stakeholders noted that hydrogen uptake

for catering is currently unattractive due to

cost and that some chain restaurants require

uniform kitchen designs. It was noted that

some chains are already electrifying, but feel

that catering will convert at a slower rate due

to the cost benefits of using gas.

Shaping Energy: The Consumer113/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Commercial | Electricity demand (cont.)

How we addressed feedback

Delay to deployment of energy efficiency

measures across all pathways, although the

impact of the measures has been increased

in Holistic Transition. Reduced use of hydrogen

for catering across all pathways.

What we modelled

Table 17: A list of key outputs from our FES 2025 models covering commercial electricity demand.

Modelling assumptions

Holistic Transition

Electric Engagement

Hydrogen Evolution

10 Year Forecast

Falling Behind

2035 electricity demand from general commercial (excluding heat and data centres)

2050 electricity demand from general commercial (excluding heat and data centres)

2050 hydrogen demand, excluding heat

60 TWh

61 TWh

65 TWh

59 TWh

72 TWh

64 TWh

69 TWh

N/A

80 TWh

4 TWh

2 TWh

14 TWh

N/A

0 TWh

Beyond the model

Low carbon options of electrification and hydrogen, where applicable, are

economically competitive for consumers, encouraging fast decarbonisation of

heat, catering and off-road vehicles to reduce emissions in the short term.

Connections reform facilitates faster demand connections for the

commercial sector.

Shaping Energy: The Consumer114/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Industry | Gas demand

w e v r e v O

Emissions from industry in Great Britain have

as calcination during cement production.

fallen since 1990, mainly due to the reduction

Other sectors have multiple options that

of energy intensive industry. In 2024, gas

they could use. Two industrial clusters have

was the largest source of energy for industry,

reached final investment decision on CO2

making up 57% of industrial fuel supply,

pipelines at present. Outside of these clusters

or 106 TWh of gas demand. We model the

there is less clarity on future infrastructure

decarbonisation of industry together with

availability, alongside uncertainty in future

growth in industrial activity.

regulations and market formation. Industrial

Decarbonisation options exist for industry

depending on the sector, process and access

to infrastructure. These include fuel switching

from gas to electrification or hydrogen and

abating gas emissions with CCS. Some

industries require gas as a feedstock for

their industrial process as they inherently

release CO2 due to their chemistry, such

decarbonisation faces a variety of challenges

such as siting (cluster instead of dispersed

sites and space availability on each site),

access to infrastructure (grid

connection, hydrogen

and CCS), high upfront

costs and potential

operating costs.

At least 80% of 2024’s gas demand is decarbonised by 2040 across all pathways

51.

Abated and unabated industrial gas demand

Shaping Energy: The ConsumerFalling BehindHydrogen EvolutionElectric EngagementHolistic TransitionTen Year Forecast020406080100120202520302035204020452050TWhCCS for industrial heat reaches 1.8 MtCO2by 2030 in Holistic TransitionAll remaining gas in 2050 is abated in the net zero pathways115/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Industry | Gas demand (cont.)

Stakeholder views

How we addressed feedback

Some stakeholders expressed views that

The decarbonisation of industry has been

a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism

slowed down in Falling Behind and the Ten

(CBAM) will be limited to specific industrial

Year Forecast to reflect this, however the

products. Stakeholders representing some

pathways need to maintain pace to achieve

industries discussed the difficulties they faced

interim emissions targets.

in decarbonising when they needed to remain

located near raw materials, such as crops or

clay. These locations may be challenging for

grid connections, hydrogen or CCS access.

What we modelled

Table 18: A list of key outputs from our FES 2025 models covering demand from industrial gas use.

Modelling assumptions

Unabated gas demand in 2035

Holistic Transition

Electric Engagement

Hydrogen Evolution

10 Year Forecast

Falling Behind

39 TWh

50 TWh

48 TWh

76 TWh

93 TWh

Abated gas demand in 2035

11 TWh

6 TWh

10 TWh

3 TWh

Abated gas demand in 2050

11 TWh

7 TWh

12 TWh

N/A

3 TWh

Beyond the model

Clear, long-term carbon accounting for industrial imports of materials and products

creates a strong signal, which in turn makes electricity, hydrogen and abated gas more

economical (relative to unabated gas), while ensuring Great Britain remains an attractive

economy for industry.

Deliver infrastructure to enable the decarbonisation of industry alongside a clear plan

of the future availability of gas and low carbon options for those both within industrial

clusters and at dispersed sites.

Shaping Energy: The Consumer116/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Industry | Electricity demand

w e v r e v O

In 2024 electricity made up 40% of industrial

Often, electrified solutions are a more efficient

fuel supply, at 74 TWh of electricity demand.

use of energy than combustion technologies,

Electrification will be the solution for large

requiring less electricity per unit of production

amounts of industry to decarbonise,

than the use of gas that has been displaced.

although not for all as some are either harder

Coupled with the potential for ongoing

to electrify or have viable alternatives which

efficiency improvements, this can limit an

may be preferable.

increase in electricity demand. Connections

Innovation within the industrial electrification

space continues, creating more solutions such

as electric boilers and industrial heat pumps

achieving higher temperatures and becoming

a credible option for many industries.

reform should speed up

demand connections that

are ready to go live.

On average across the pathways, 98% of the increase in electrification occurs by 2040.

Industrial electricity demand (excluding hydrogen production)

Shaping Energy: The ConsumerFalling BehindElectric EngagementHydrogen EvolutionHolistic TransitionTen Year Forecast0255075100125150202520302035204020452050TWh117/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Industry | Electricity demand (cont.)

Stakeholder views

How we addressed feedback

Views from stakeholders on decarbonisation

Electrification needs to happen at a faster

plans for UK industry varied. Electrification

pace than implied by stakeholder feedback

was frequently mentioned by some as a

to meet emissions targets in Electric

crucial decarbonisation option for industry,

Engagement and Holistic Transition. The

but others felt that barriers to connection

slower electrification feedback is reflected

could lead to the loss of industry, particularly

to greater levels in the Ten Year Forecast,

for multi-national corporations.

Hydrogen Evolution (where there is greater

hydrogen use) and Falling Behind.

What we modelled

Table 19: A list of key inputs and outputs from our FES 2025 models covering industrial electricity demand.

Modelling assumptions

Holistic Transition

Electric Engagement

Hydrogen Evolution

10 Year Forecast

Falling Behind

Industrial economic growth

High energy intensive industry maintain the same level of productivity, growth in less energy intensive industry.

Electricity demand in 2035

98 TWh

108 TWh

84 TWh

87 TWh

83 TWh

Electricity demand in 2050

104 TWh

131 TWh

91 TWh

N/A

99 TWh

Beyond the model

Electricity costs are reduced relative to gas, for example by removing levies from

electricity. This incentivises the main option that industry will use for decarbonisation.

Additionally, it promotes growth of industry in Great Britain, compared to overseas.

Faster electricity connections, enabled by connections reform, supported by pre-

emptive distribution reinforcements, prevents industrial downturn from current gas users

when carbon accounting policies are reinforced.

Shaping Energy: The Consumer118/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Industry | Hydrogen demand

w e

v r e v O

Hydrogen can provide a decarbonisation option for industrial sectors where the required

temperatures or chemical processes make electrification less suitable, and where siting,

process or cost reasons equally make CCS less suitable.

In some cases, a switch to hydrogen may not be economically viable without support

mechanisms for end users. There are initial plans for pipeline hydrogen access in larger

clusters, but pipeline access beyond these remains uncertain.

Industrial low carbon hydrogen demand

Stakeholder views

Some stakeholders felt that hydrogen

They suggested that

development is slowed down by the

hydrogen production

investment challenge of needing

requires better investment

Hydrogen replaces 7-43% of 2024 industrial gas demand by 2040 in the pathways

simultaneous development of supply, storage,

certainty and resilience to justify infrastructure

transmission and demand of hydrogen and

costs and advance the hydrogen market.

CO2 (where applicable).

Shaping Energy: The ConsumerFalling BehindHydrogen EvolutionElectric EngagementHolistic TransitionTen Year Forecast01020304050202520302035204020452050TWhH2H2119/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Industry | Hydrogen demand (cont.)

How we addressed feedback

Use of hydrogen has reduced relative to FES

However, there is a limited degree to

which the rollout can be slowed in the short

term, as fast delivery of hydrogen is required

to reduce emissions.

What we modelled

Table 20: A list of key inputs and outputs from our FES 2025 models covering industrial hydrogen demand.

Modelling assumptions

Holistic Transition

Electric Engagement

Hydrogen Evolution

10 Year Forecast

Falling Behind

Hydrogen access

Only in industrial clusters

Grows from industrial clusters to national network

Only in industrial clusters

Hydrogen demand in 2035

20 TWh

5 TWh

30 TWh

10 TWh

2 TWh

Hydrogen demand in 2050

30 TWh

11 TWh

47 TWh

N/A

17 TWh

Beyond the model

There are clear long term hydrogen supply, network, storage and demand plans

beyond the initial clusters for all of Great Britain. This allows industry to know what

options will be available for them to decarbonise and make the necessary investment.

Hydrogen network infrastructure grows at pace to match the increasing

industrial demand.

Shaping Energy: The ConsumerH2120/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Aggregate | Demand flexibility

w e v r e v O

Demand flexibility covers all aspects of

Vehicle-to-grid (V2G) is a technology that

consumer flexibility but excludes flexibility

enables an EV to discharge some of its surplus

from electrolysers and behind-the-meter

energy to help meet grid demands. Our

generation. There is uncertainty over the

modelling focusses on V2G, but V2H technology

current and future levels of demand flexibility

– where energy is not exported to the grid but

when considering unknown consumer

instead utilised by a household – can also

engagement.

Consumers can be rewarded for their demand

flexibility through mechanisms such as smart

tariffs – this can reduce bills and the payback

time of low carbon technologies which is a

significant barrier to their uptake. Demand

flexibility can help balance the grid when

demand is high and make use of surplus energy

contribute to reducing peak demand. Vehicle

and charge point manufacturers increasing

their V2G offerings will continue to facilitate

growth in the technology. The cost of V2G

chargers has rapidly decreased as residential

AC V2G chargers are expected to be available

in 2025, further opening up the accessibility of

this technology to more consumers.

during periods of excess supply, while providing

An average residential fossil fuel boiler typically

financial benefits to consumers. Higher levels of

experiences two daily demand peaks – morning

demand flexibility allow for lower levels of supply

and evening – when the heating is generally

side flexibility, such as batteries and low carbon

turned on. Heat pumps, however, tend to

dispatchable power, which may be more

be operated with a flatter profile to provide

expensive.

Electrification of transport has the largest

potential for flexibility as it requires relatively

low effort from consumers compared to the

rewards and then becomes an enabler for other

demand flexibility through greater awareness.

Since February 2024, NESO has enabled greater

participation of aggregated flexibility assets

into the Balancing Mechanism by lowering

(operational) metering requirements. Despite

the network balancing and consumer financial

benefits, we estimate that only 25% of EV owners

today engage in smart charging (although

there is limited data available), revealing that

most EV owners are not yet benefiting from

a gradual household temperature build up

before the morning peak, to then maintain that

temperature out to the evening – delivering a

much higher efficiency heating system, which in

turn lowers peak demand. Further flexibility can

come from increasing the heat pump’s set point

temperature before the peak, and reducing

it slightly during, using the thermal mass of

the building to maintain comfortable living

temperatures for a few hours without turning

the heating on. A NESO Decarbonising Heat:

Consumer Choice and Affordability survey has

shown 50% of consumers are willing to accept

these changes in indoor temperature for a short time if it helps reduce energy bills41.

low-cost off-peak charging rates, along with

Modern high heat retention storage heaters

studies showing consumers are unaware of the

and novel thermal storage technologies

potential savings available.

(that couple with direct electric heating) can

41 NESO Whole Energy Insight - Decarbonising Heat: Consumer Choice and Affordability

Shaping Energy: The Consumer121/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Aggregate | Demand flexibility (cont.)

See full intro text edit on previous page.

shift high percentages of household heating

opportunities no longer being available. High

demand in lower demand homes that they are

temperature thermal storage and flexibility

typically suited to. Additionally, thermal storage

from data centres are crucial areas of growing

may also couple with district heating and heat

demand flexibility from I&C sectors. Demand

pumps, although with economic and spatial

flexibility is mainly on the distribution network

constraints this may be limited to shifting hot

providing flexibility throughout the networks.

water demand for individual heat pumps.

Automation of demand flexibility through smart

NESO’s Demand Flexibility Service has helped

grow the familiarity of demand flexibility

alongside growing the number of smart tariffs

available and supplier schemes, yet outturn

data has shown reduced levels of industrial and

commercial (I&C) demand flexibility, potentially

a consequence of triad cost avoidance

appliances reduces the effort for consumers

and should increase engagement levels,

although the number of working smart meters,

implementation of market-wide, half-hourly

(MHHS) settlement and use of smart tariffs are

also enablers for demand flexibility.

Demand side flexibility capacities at peak

V2G and EVs combined provide 51 GW of demand flexibility and are the largest

source of any flexibility capacity (including supply side) in Holistic Transition.

Shaping Energy: The Consumer02040608010010YF10YFHTHTEEHEFB202420352050GWResidential appliancesIndustry andcommercialSmart chargingV2GHybrid heat pumpsDistrict heatingHeat pumps pre-heating buildingsStorage heaters122/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Aggregate | Demand flexibility (cont.)

Stakeholder views

Stakeholders suggested that smart charging

would be easy to implement for commercial

vehicles. Several stakeholders expressed

uncertainty around V2G, feeling that there

would be a greater chance of implementing

V2H. Some stakeholders suggested V2G may

be easier to implement in commercial vehicles.

There were positive indicators from

up to DSR as this does not provide a stable

revenue stream for them. Smart management

of demand and active shifting of elements like

refrigeration and process heating is growing

rapidly, but not entirely marketable to ancillary

services, so is occurring largely between

suppliers and consumers.

How we addressed feedback

stakeholders for participation in heat flexibility,

We have kept the wide range of V2G to

with most saying that pre-heating homes

reflect uncertainty across the pathways and

before peak times is likely to be the main

incorporated V2G for commercial vehicles in

method for heat flexibility.

Some stakeholders have expressed views

that I&C consumers can be unwilling to sign

all pathways, Falling Behind and the Ten Year

Forecast. We have included pre-heating of

homes in the heat flexibility figures in Holistic

Transition.

What we modelled

Table 21: A list of key inputs and outputs from our FES 2025 models covering demand side flexibility.

Modelling assumptions

Holistic Transition

Electric Engagement

Hydrogen Evolution

10 Year Forecast

Falling Behind

Smart meters in 2035

29.4 m

27.2 m

28.4 m

25.7 m

Residential smart charging engagement in 2035

Residential V2G engagement in 2050

83%

45%

68%

26%

48%

58%

12%

N/A

30%

Heat profile and flex approach

36% flex from pre-heating

20% from flat heat pump profile

Consumers prefer traditional on/off profile

Residential appliance demand engaged in flex in 2035

Industrial and commercial demand engaged in flex in 2035

25%

5.8%

19%

11%

5.4%

5.8%

5.5%

4.0%

Shaping Energy: The Consumer123/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Aggregate | Demand flexibility (cont.)

Beyond the model

Smart tariffs are the default option for EVs charging at home by 2030 in Holistic

Transition, enabled by implementation of a MHHS without further delay. Consumers

have equitable access to low carbon technologies and demand flexibility markets.

Information is widely communicated, especially to new EV and heat pump users, on

best operating efficiency and flexibility practices. Consumers and installers are aware

of the benefits of flatter heat pump operation and pre-heating to reduce bills.

Market signals are well coordinated, so they do not contradict each other and

respect local network constraints: this is especially important for demand turn up.

Smart appliances reduce the effort for consumers to participate in flexibility and

increase capacity at peak times. Consumer confidence rapidly grows in demand

flexibility and automation as they are rewarded for their engagement. Automation of charging

within required consumer usage schedules allows EVs to provide flexibility across multiple days. Car

manufacturers include V2G in warranty terms.

Where there is sufficient charger access, public charging encourages charging outside of the

evening peak, rather than to a short off-peak window that may lead to low charger utilisation.

Heating system installations are designed around peak demand. Where direct electric heating systems

are the most suitable option, they are coupled with thermal storage. District heating uses heat pumps as a

primary heat source and non-electrified low-carbon fuels as the secondary heat source. Where this is not

possible, heat pumps are used for secondary heating instead of direct electric boilers.

Long-term certainty on demand flexibility incentives allows industry to invest in participating and

stay engaged.

V2G reaches the same capacity as a power station by 2030 at 1.2 GW, growing

to 41 GW in 2050 in Holistic Transition.

Shaping Energy: The Consumer124/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Aggregate | Consumer demand

w e v r e v O

This factsheet covers consumer electricity,

transport. In comparison, gas demand was

hydrogen and gas demand. ‘Gas demand’

493 TWh and approximately two thirds today

includes residential (including residential

comes from residential heating, with the

heating and cooking), transport, industry and

remaining demand shared between industry

commercial demand, but excludes demand

and commercial applications.

for power and hydrogen production.

Unabated gas use must decrease at pace

In 2024, electricity demand was 267 TWh and

to reduce emissions in the short term – this

was approximately split between residential,

can be achieved through electrification and

commercial and industry sectors, with a

switching to clean fuels such as hydrogen

small amount of demand required for road

and biomethane.

Total annual consumer demand ranges, excluding the Ten Year Forecast and Falling Behind

Total consumer energy demand (including oil) reduces by 47%, driven by more efficient electrified sources in Holistic Transition.

Shaping Energy: The ConsumerHydrogenElectricityNatural Gas0100200300400500600700202520302035204020452050TWh125/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Aggregate | Consumer demand (cont.)

Stakeholder views

How we addressed feedback

Stakeholders consistently said that fuel

We have increased the amount of

switching at the scale needed will not happen

electrification across all pathways relative to

unless electricity prices are reduced relative to

use of other low carbon fuels. The limitations

gas. Most stakeholders felt that electrification is

from emissions targets prevent slower

the most suitable low carbon option for most

electricity grid connection in the pathways,

consumer applications, yet electricity grid

but we have reflected this in Falling Behind

connection timescales are a significant barrier.

and the Ten Year Forecast.

What we modelled

Table 22: A list of key outputs from our FES 2025 models covering aggregate consumer demands.

2035

2050

Modelling assumptions

Ten Year Forecast

Holistic Transition

Electric Engagement

Hydrogen Evolution

Falling Behind

Total gas demand (unabated and abated)

443 TWh

348 TWh

14 TWh

10 TWh

15 TWh

355 TWh

Electricity demand

353 TWh

388 TWh

567 TWh

646 TWh

540 TWh

500 TWh

Hydrogen demand

11 TWh

22 TWh

39 TWh

14 TWh

179 TWh

18 TWh

Beyond the model

Reduced electricity prices relative to natural gas promote decarbonisation at pace to

drive lower emissions in the short term.

Strategic plans and policy decisions provide clear signals to industry and residential

consumers on which low-carbon technology options will be available to them.

Shaping Energy: The Consumer126/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Powering the System: Electricity Supply

Electricity and gas peak demands

Electricity | Offshore wind

Electricity | Onshore wind

Electricity | Solar

Electricity | Tidal

Electricity | Battery energy storage

Electricity | Long-duration energy storage

Electricity | Interconnectors

Electricity | Nuclear

Electricity | Low carbon dispatchable power

Electricity | Unabated gas

127

129

131

133

135

137

139

141

143

145

147

Bioenergy | Biomass power with carbon capture and storage

149

127/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Electricity and gas peak demands

w e v r e v O

Peak demands are crucial metrics that

growing demand flexibility. Higher amounts of

define the stress points on both the electricity

energy efficiency and demand flexibility result

and gas networks – this helps determine the

in lower firm capacity requirements and less

capacity that transmission and distribution

infrastructure reinforcement.

networks are designed for, along with the

firm capacity required to meet the demand.

Gas peak demand uses a 1 in 20 weather year,

as per the standard metric used for the gas

Electricity Average Cold Spell (ACS) peak

network, which is a worse case than the ACS

demand is the highest electricity demand seen

method used for electricity peak demand.

across an average weather year. Electricity

The peak gas demand for power (which

peak demand is defined as consumer demand

is part of the overall gas peak demand),

(including network losses but excluding

includes estimates for gas-fired generation

embedded generation) and is measured after

from constrained electricity network, unlike

all demand flexibility (other than V2G) eases

all other parts of our analysis that assume

the demand at peak.

an unconstrained network. In 2024, peak gas

Peak electricity demand in 2024 was 58.3

GW – this is expected to rise, partly due to a

growing population, but mainly from increasing

electrification of consumer demand. This

increasing electrification is partly countered

by energy efficiency improvements, alongside

demand was 5214 GWh per day. As consumers

shift to electricity (or hydrogen in harder-to-

electrify applications) gas peak demand will

reduce. Some gas will remain for industry and

the power sector, to ensure peak electricity

demand is being met with sufficient supply, but

by 2050 this will all be abated.

Electricity and gas peak demands, excluding the Ten Year Forecast and Falling Behind

Powering the System: Electricity SupplyElectricity peak demandGas peak demand01000200030004000500060000306090120150180202520302035204020452050Gas 1in20, GWh per dayElectricity ACS, GW128/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Electricity and gas peak demands (cont.)

What we modelled

Table 23: A list of key inputs and outputs from our FES 2025 models covering electricity and gas

peak demands.

Modelling assumptions

Holistic Transition

Ten Year Forecast

Holistic Transition

Electric Engagement

Hydrogen Evolution

Falling Behind

2030

2050

Gas peak demand

4543 GWh per day

5076 GWh per day

1382 GWh per day

1671 GWh per day

2603 GWh per day

4707 GWh per day

Method to reduce peak electricity demand

Electricity peak demand

High level of demand flexibility

Low level of demand flexibility

High level of demand flexibility

Medium level of demand flexibility

High usage of hydrogen at peak

Low level of demand flexibility

62 GW

64 GW

120 GW

144 GW

122 GW

107 GW

Beyond the model

Progress on connections reform drives down the cost of electricity prices and

enables the adoption of electrified technologies as a consequence.

Demand flexibility grows with the increased use of smart tariffs and the

implementation of the Market-wide Half Hourly Settlement.

Powering the System: Electricity Supply129/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Electricity | Offshore wind

w e v r e v O

Over the past decade, the UK has established

most across the country. Investment in the

itself as a world leader in offshore wind

technology’s supply chain and connections

deployment. Offshore wind plays a critical

reform development is critical to reduce

part in meeting our net zero targets and

connection delays and expand deployment.

makes up most of our generation output.

Contracts for Difference (CfD)

Continued growth in the sector, however,

requires significant infrastructure investment

to move generated power from coastal

landing points to where the energy is needed

auction rounds also ensure

necessary financial

support for offshore

wind developers.

45-52% of GB’s 2050 supply generation dispatch comes from offshore wind.

Offshore wind capacity

Powering the System: Electricity SupplyFalling BehindHydrogen EvolutionElectric EngagementHolistic TransitionTen Year Forecast0255075100125202520302035204020452050GW130/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Electricity | Offshore wind (cont.)

Stakeholder views

How we addressed feedback

Some stakeholders highlighted that the

We have reflected this in our analysis

delivery of 55 GW in 2030 pushes the

by reducing the upper range within our

bounds of deliverability due to network

pathways to 47.8 GW.

capacity and timeline constraints.

What we modelled

Table 24: A list of key inputs and outputs from our FES 2025 models covering electricity supply from

offshore wind.

Modelling assumptions

Holistic Transition

Electric Engagement

Hydrogen Evolution

10 Year Forecast

Falling Behind

Queue to 2030 (including built capacity)*

Max load factor in 2050

Offshore wind capacity till 2030

Offshore wind capacity till 2050

*Data as of December 2024

Beyond the model

51 GW

46%

46.5 GW

47.8 GW

42.3 GW

40.8 GW

35.7 GW

104.4 GW

96.4 GW

96.8 GW

N/A

80.4 GW

Government support is delivered to build out the supply chain and speed up the

deployment of future offshore wind projects. This expediency ensures we have sufficient

materials to build infrastructure at the required pace, accounting for the competition with

other technologies such as international interconnector manufacturing.

Sufficient offshore wind projects are delivered to achieve adequate transmission

infrastructure (linked to specific connection dates) and seabed leasing opportunities. This

mitigates the risk of non-delivery and accommodates the increase in required capacity.

Locational, environmental barriers are acknowledged, evaluated and addressed to

ensure safe delivery of offshore wind projects.

Powering the System: Electricity Supply131/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Electricity | Onshore wind

w e v r e v O

Onshore wind is one of the lower cost, clean

Despite the potential, deployment of onshore

power options available and will play an

wind has been slower over recent years due

important role in the journey to net zero

to planning restrictions across England and

because of its scalability - from community-

Wales, network connections, supply chain

owned wind turbines to large, industrial wind

considerations and inflation of materials costs.

farms. This means onshore wind can deploy

However, the de facto ban on onshore wind in

at a faster rate than offshore wind projects.

England and Wales (in place since 2015) was

lifted on 8 July 2024, providing positive signals

for future developers.

Onshore wind capacity

Powering the System: Electricity SupplyFalling BehindHydrogen EvolutionElectric EngagementHolistic TransitionTen Year Forecast0102030405060202520302035204020452050GW132/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Electricity | Onshore wind (cont.)

Stakeholder views

How we addressed feedback

The majority of stakeholders highlighted

Within our pathways we have reviewed the

that planning restrictions, alongside

range of different locations and capacities of

connection challenges, have led to

onshore wind to reflect the impact of changes

limited onshore wind deployment in

from government policy, connections reform,

England and Wales in recent years.

and planning considerations.

What we modelled

Table 25: A list of key inputs and outputs from our FES 2025 models covering electricity supply from

onshore wind.

Modelling assumptions

Holistic Transition

Electric Engagement

Hydrogen Evolution

10 Year Forecast

Falling Behind

Queue to 2030 (including built capacity)*

30.3 GW

Max load factor in 2050

29%

28%

N/A

28%

Onshore wind capacity till 2030

Onshore wind capacity till 2050

*Data as of December 2024

Beyond the model

29.8 GW

29.0 GW

27.3 GW

28.7 GW

21.1 GW

47.5 GW

50.7 GW

43.4 GW

N/A

36.4 GW

Investment across Great Britain in policy, markets, planning and connections reform,

alongside strategic network planning through the Strategic Spatial Energy Plan

(SSEP) and Centralised Strategic Network Plan (CSNP) delivers the certainty needed

to speed up onshore wind deployment in England and Wales.

Powering the System: Electricity Supply133/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Electricity | Solar

w e v r e v O

Solar generation is a clean source of energy

generation patterns. Alongside the potential

and will play an important role in meeting

to deploy in transmission and distribution

demand. Solar deployment has been

networks, it also has residential applications

widespread across the globe over the past

via household rooftop solar photovoltaic

few years. In Great Britain, most of our solar

(PV) panels.

generation is currently connected to the

distribution networks, with the first larger-

scale solar plant only recently connected

onto the transmission network in 2023.

Primary solar generation (excluding storage)

builds across all three of our net zero

pathways in the 2020s to meet

increasing demand and to

Solar transmission is expected to grow in the

offset the use of high-

next few years, driven by planning approval of

carbon generation,

(standalone) large-scale solar farms and the

while helping to

Clean Power 2030 commitment.

achieve emissions

Like onshore wind, solar is a cheaper source

of clean power, with largely complementary

targets.

Great Britain achieved a new maximum solar generation record on 6 April 2025 at 13.2GW.

Solar capacity

Powering the System: Electricity SupplyFalling BehindHydrogen EvolutionElectric EngagementHolistic TransitionTen Year Forecast0255075100125202520302035204020452050GW134/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Electricity | Solar (cont.)

Stakeholder views

How we addressed feedback

The majority of stakeholders highlighted

Our pathways reflect a range of different

solar energy’s potential (especially in

deployment rates for solar generation,

rooftop applications), but acknowledged the

recognising the challenge in achieving very

challenges this technology faces such as

high uptake rates. We also examine a range of

planning constraints and the need for policy

different sized projects and their connection

support to overcome this. A small number

points within the electricity network.

of stakeholders felt that solar energy is

significantly underestimated in our pathways,

with a potential of over 50GW by 2030.

What we modelled

Table 26: A list of key inputs and outputs from our FES 2025 models covering electricity supply from

solar generation.

Modelling assumptions

Holistic Transition

Electric Engagement

Hydrogen Evolution

10 Year Forecast

Falling Behind

Queue to 2030 (including built capacity)*

Max load factor in 2050

71.5 GW

12%

Total solar capacity in 2030

46.7 GW

46.8 GW

43.3 GW

36.3 GW

32.6 GW

Total solar capacity in 2050

97.0 GW

101.0 GW

87.2 GW

N/A

62.8 GW

*Data as of December 2024

Beyond the model

UK Government’s regional capacity transmission limits (~11GW) are delivered as

set out in their Clean Power Action Plan.

Colocated assets, such as grid-scale battery storage for solar farms, will leverage

the combined power of solar generation and other flexible technologies over

shared connections.

Powering the System: Electricity Supply135/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Electricity | Tidal

w e v r e v O

Marine energy generation uses the natural

While tidal generation is a reliable source

movement of water to produce electricity

of power and has a long lifespan, these

and is a highly predictable form of

assets do have high upfront costs and

generation across all seasons.

limited subsidy support at present. In

There are two types of tidal generation – tidal

stream, which captures the kinetic energy of

tidal currents, and tidal range, which captures

energy created by the difference in water

levels. It is estimated that the UK has around

50% of Europe’s tidal energy resource.

addition, environmental challenges must be

acknowledged and evaluated to ensure safe

operation within marine ecosystems.

Tidal capacity

Powering the System: Electricity SupplyFalling BehindHydrogen EvolutionElectric EngagementHolistic TransitionTen Year Forecast012345202520302035204020452050GW136/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Electricity | Tidal (cont.)

Stakeholder views

How we addressed feedback

Stakeholders acknowledged that although

We have included tidal generation in larger

tidal output is variable, it still follows a more

quantities in Holistic Transition and Electric

predictable pattern to wind and solar.

Engagement in the late 2030s and early 2040s

They also noted the higher investment

to reflect technology readiness and policy

costs required.

support that will ensure deployment.

What we modelled

Table 27: A list of key outputs from our FES 2025 models covering electricity supply from tidal generation.

Modelling assumptions

Holistic Transition

Electric Engagement

Hydrogen Evolution

10 Year Forecast

Falling Behind

Max load factor in 2050

19%

Tidal capacity in 2040

0.6 GW

1.7 GW

0.5 GW

Tidal capacity in 2050

1.7 GW

4.3 GW

0.5 GW

N/A

0.5 GW

0.6 GW

Beyond the model

Tidal technologies receive investment through government support with

financial backing for larger-scale projects and investment in research and

development for novel applications.

Environmental barriers and supply chain constraints are addressed to ensure

delivery of tidal technologies in later years.

Powering the System: Electricity Supply

137/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Electricity | Battery energy storage

w e v r e v O

The principal role of batteries today is to

incorporate into NESO’s economic dispatch

provide within-day flexibility to help match

process. These process developments have

supply and demand. Batteries also provide

been designed to ensure that batteries will

vital system services, such as frequency

be included on a level economic playing field

response, for which their role is likely to

with all other technologies.

grow to 2030 as the use of gas generation

falls. Two- to four-hour storage can also

provide short-term reserves and help

manage the network.

Further delivery relies on continuing the

reforms to the connections queue, planning

issues being resolved and market structures

providing certainty and the right revenue

Industry and NESO have been working closely

opportunities.

to access battery storage effectively and

Battery storage installed capacity (excluding electric vehicles)

Powering the System: Electricity SupplyFalling BehindHydrogen EvolutionElectric EngagementHolistic TransitionTen Year Forecast010203040502020202520302035204020452050GW138/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Electricity | Battery energy storage (cont.)

Stakeholder views

How we addressed feedback

Many stakeholders acknowledged that

We have evaluated both supply chain

strategic planning, as well as connection

uncertainties and various battery storage

and market reforms, will be crucial in

policies to inform our storage growth and

unlocking the full potential of battery

build-out rate.

storage in the energy sector.

What we modelled

Table 28: A list of key inputs and outputs from our FES 2025 models covering electricity supply from

battery energy storage.

Modelling assumptions

Queue to 2030 (including built capacity)*

Holistic Transition

Electric Engagement

Hydrogen Evolution

10 Year Forecast

Falling Behind

49.8 GW

Installed capacity in 2030

23.2 GW

25.2 GW

20.5 GW

24.4 GW

19.9 GW

Installed capacity in 2050

39.3 GW

40.4 GW

31.2 GW

N/A

27.4 GW

*Data as of December 2024

Beyond the model

Challenges remain around the supply chain and highlights the need to align battery

growth with the lithium reserves available. Few challenges may also be present with

regards to the grid and compliance tests causing commissioning and deployment

delays for large commercial operations. These challenges limit our deployment, where

appropriate, at both grid-scale and micro-battery storage.

Colocated assets, such as grid-scale battery storage for solar farms, will leverage the

combined power of solar generation and battery storage over shared connections.

Powering the System: Electricity Supply 139/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Electricity | Long-duration energy storage

w e v r e v O

Long-duration energy storage (LDES),

before 2030 is limited. Increased deployment

such as pumped hydro storage and liquid

would require the completion of Great Britain’s

air, is particularly important for longer-term

first pumped hydro stations in more than

flexibility and additional operability needs,

40 years.

for example during extended periods of

wind drought or to spread demand between

weekends and weekdays. LDES is used to

UK Government and Ofgem’s ‘cap and

floor’ funding scheme was introduced in

April 2025 to further boost deployment and

bolster high renewable periods and

delivers flexibility through sustained

response capability.

accelerate delivery, but the

call for projects is under

evaluation and the

Due to longer lead and planning times and

benefits have not

high capital expenditure, our pathways don’t

been realised yet.

see many LDES projects coming online before

2030, and the pipeline of options to deploy

Installed pumped hydro storage is currently 28 GWh with 2.74 GW of capacity

Long-duration energy storage installed capacity

(excluding electric vehicles and hydrogen)

Powering the System: Electricity SupplyHolistic TransitionElectric EngagementHydrogen EvolutionFalling BehindTen Year Forecast05101520202520302035204020452050GW140/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Electricity | Long-duration energy storage

(cont.)

Stakeholder views

How we addressed feedback

New and innovative LDES, such as liquid

We conducted a storage technology radar

air and compressed air projects, have

through stakeholder discussions and research.

successfully operated at a small scale. Work

This helped us closely assess which storage

has started on new projects and feedback

technologies are commercially ready for

from stakeholders confirm that our lower

delivery now, and explore expected timelines if

range is within what they can build for 2030.

they are not yet ready.

What we modelled

Table 29: A list of key outputs from our FES 2025 models covering electricity supply from long-duration

energy storage.

Modelling assumptions

Queue to 2030 (including built capacity)*

Holistic Transition

Electric Engagement

Hydrogen Evolution

10 Year Forecast

Falling Behind

7.9 GW

Installed capacity in 2030

5.3 GW

3.8 GW

3.0 GW

Installed capacity in 2050

16.5 GW

16.6 GW

13.2 GW

N/A

3.3 GW

*Data as of December 2024

Beyond the model

Adequate levels of energy storage and low carbon dispatchable power are delivered

to buffer the retirement or conversion of unabated gas plants post-2030, to ensure

security of supply.

Policy support via the cap and floor scheme is delivered to help bring forward the

investment needed for LDES.

Supply chain uncertainties related to LDES inform our storage growth and build-out rate.

Powering the System: Electricity Supply 141/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Electricity | Interconnectors

w e v r e v O

Interconnectors facilitate the integration

The longer-term outlook for increased levels of

of weather-dependent and distribution-

interconnection remains uncertain. Countries on

connected energy generation and are vital

both sides must be confident that projects will

as we transition to net zero.

be beneficial for consumers. Once delivered, the

Levels in our net zero pathways vary depending

on the levels of hydrogen storage and other

flexibility options. Great Britain becomes a net

movement of power over interconnectors will

continue to be driven by the price differentials

between electricity markets.

exporter of electricity post-2030 and retains

Project deployment can also be made

that position in 2050 in Holistic Transition and

challenging through supply chain bottlenecks

Electric Engagement.

of competing technologies

UK Government and Ofgem’s cap and

floor regime continues to deliver a steady

pipeline of projects out to early 2040, however

interconnector total capacity is slower in the

short term to reflect complex interconnector

project negotiations across Great Britain

and Europe, as well as other regulation

considerations between countries.

(such as offshore wind

turbines) which require

similar equipment,

highlighting the

need to address

these supply chain

challenges swiftly.

British interconnector installed capacity to other European countries is currently 10 GW

Interconnector capacity

Powering the System: Electricity SupplyHolistic TransitionElectric EngagementHydrogen EvolutionFalling BehindTen Year Forecast051015202530202520302035204020452050GW142/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Electricity | Interconnectors (cont.)

Stakeholder views

How we addressed feedback

The majority of stakeholders acknowledged

We assessed interconnector project

that the sector faces regulatory and policy

delivery through further stakeholder and

challenges associated with developing and

government engagement alongside research.

maintaining interconnector infrastructure.

We also expanded the explanation of the

Stakeholders also pointed out challenges and

interconnector forecast methodology in

barriers to interconnector project delivery

our Future Energy Scenarios 2025 Modelling

around obtaining connection agreements,

Methods document.

supply chain, securing manufacturing slots

and the scheduling of cable-laying vessels.

What we modelled

Table 30: A list of key inputs from our FES 2025 models covering electricity supply from interconnectors.

Modelling assumptions

Queue to 2030 (including built capacity)*

Interconnector capacity in 2030

Interconnector capacity in 2050

Holistic Transition

Electric Engagement

Hydrogen Evolution

10 Year Forecast

Falling Behind

28.1 GW

11.7 GW

12.5 GW

11.7 GW

21.8 GW

24.4 GW

17.9 GW

N/A

16.5 GW

European Union Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism

We do not consider the European Union CBAM in our modelling, as there is considerable uncertainty since an agreement to being talks about linking the British and European Union carbon markets.

*Data as of December 2024

Beyond the model

Reforms to market design and policies supporting energy assets in Great Britain and

neighbouring countries influence the future development of interconnectors and their

flows. Potential saturation of markets and constraints around Great Britain’s connection

locations is a consideration in the future growth of interconnectors. We continue to monitor

market conditions alongside the appetite and political landscape of the rest of Europe.

Powering the System: Electricity Supply143/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Electricity | Nuclear

w e v r e v O

Nuclear power will play an important role in

The UK Government aims to clarify its current

achieving a clean power system by 2030

(long-term) nuclear ambitions and the path

and beyond, through a new generation

to achieving them. A final investment decision

of nuclear plants that will replace retiring

on the Sizewell C large-scale nuclear project

capacity and meet growing demand as the

is anticipated later in 2025, while the outcome

economy electrifies.

of the previous government’s

Most of Great Britain’s existing nuclear plants

are due to retire before 2030 – some before

new plants come online – creating a transition

challenge. Because of this, select plants are

currently being considered for life extension,

subject to approval from the Office for

Nuclear Regulation.

Small Modular Reactor

(SMR) competition is

also expected to be

announced soon.

39-59% of the installed nuclear capacity is represented by SMRs in the pathways.

Nuclear capacity

Powering the System: Electricity SupplyFalling BehindHydrogen EvolutionElectric EngagementHolistic TransitionTen Year Forecast0510152025201020152020202520302035204020452050GW144/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Electricity | Nuclear (cont.)

Stakeholder views

How we addressed feedback

Most stakeholders acknowledged the role of

We have used details of upcoming projects

nuclear to ensure energy security and meet

from nuclear developers and government

decarbonisation targets. Despite this, many

bodies for input into our transmission

stakeholders pointed out the challenges in the

generation background modelling. We have

sector, such as long lead times for building

also ensured that where nuclear is utilised

large nuclear power plants, public perception

in conjunction with hydrogen or industrial

and planning issues.

heating production, the dates and locations

of deployment are consistent with hydrogen

development and production or industrial

heating requirements.

What we modelled

Table 31: A list of key inputs and outputs from our FES 2025 models covering electricity supply from

nuclear power.

Modelling assumptions

Queue to 2030 (including built capacity)*

Holistic Transition

Electric Engagement

Hydrogen Evolution

10 Year Forecast

Falling Behind

5.7 GW

Max load factor in 2050

80%

81%

79%

N/A

79%

Nuclear capacity in 2030

2.9 GW

4.1 GW

2.9 GW

3.7 GW

Nuclear capacity in 2050

14.2 GW

21.6 GW

10.9 GW

N/A

10.4

*Data as of December 2024

Beyond the model

Along with the extension of existing plants, long-term government support is

delivered to build the supply chain out for new infrastructure, including large-scale

nuclear projects and more novel projects such as SMRs.

Powering the System: Electricity Supply 145/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Electricity | Low carbon dispatchable power

(cont.)

w e v r e v O

The ability to ramp up supply to meet

demand is a key requirement of the energy

system. Traditionally, this would have been

provided by unabated gas generation and

a clean power system in 2030. After 2030, low

carbon dispatchable power could be built

up to replace the need for the remaining

unabated gas generation.

coal power plants, but as we shift away from

Revenue support from government for gas

these sources of power, new solutions are

CCS generation will be available through

required and the role of gas is evolving to

Dispatchable Power Agreements

ensure a secure power supply and enable the

(DPAs).

transition to low carbon dispatchable power.

We define ‘low carbon dispatchable power’

as gas power plants coupled with CCS and

hydrogen to power (H2P) plants. These plants

can dial up and down to match peak demand

and fill gaps during periods of low renewable

output – this is an important requirement of

Government is

developing a H2P

business model

based on the DPA

style mechanism.

UK Government’s Track-1 Cluster Sequencing Process recently announced that the Teesside and HyNet clusters are the first to secure funding

Low carbon dispatchable capacity

Powering the System: Electricity SupplyHolistic TransitionElectric EngagementHydrogen EvolutionFalling BehindTen Year Forecast0102030405060202520302035204020452050GWH2146/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Electricity | Low carbon dispatchable power

Stakeholder views

The majority of stakeholders highlighted the

need for dispatchable generation for security

of supply purposes and the need to convert

these plants from unabated gas.

How we addressed feedback

We have utilised NESO’s Clean Power 2030

analysis in our generation background

modelling, supported by stakeholder bilateral

meetings discussing gas-to-power and

conversion to low carbon dispatchable

power. Beyond 2030, we utilise our Capacity

Expansion Model for transmission to ensure

that our net zero pathways meet security

of supply, including contribution from low

carbon dispatchable gas generation. Our

dispatch model then assesses how we can

meet carbon budgets with this low carbon

generation capacity in the generation mix.

What we modelled

Table 32: A list of key inputs and outputs from our FES 2025 models covering electricity supply from low

carbon dispatchable power.

Modelling assumptions

Queue to 2030 (including built capacity)*

Max load factor in 2050

Low carbon dispatchable capacity in 2030

Low carbon dispatchable capacity in 2050

*Data as of December 2024

Beyond the model

Holistic Transition

Electric Engagement

Hydrogen Evolution

10 Year Forecast

Falling Behind

4.3 GW

92%

1.0 GW

0.0 GW

1.4 GW

0.9 GW

0.0 GW

48.3 GW

54.2 GW

55.2 GW

N/A

16.8 GW

Natural gas plays a role in industry and (peaking) power generation to provide

low carbon flexibility when used with CCS, as well as in the production of low

carbon hydrogen.

Policy support for low carbon dispatchable power is provided, to account for lower

operating load factors out to 2050. This enables delivery of CCS at scale along with

hydrogen and CO2 storage, to ensure a reliable whole energy system.

Powering the System: Electricity SupplyH2147/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Electricity | Unabated gas

w e v r e v O

Gas power remains an important part of

to government in Electric Engagement and

today’s generation mix and helps ensure

Hydrogen Evolution, as we have not retired

security of supply (SoS) and will help support

any large stations before 2030 that have not

the transition to low carbon dispatchable

already submitted notice of closure, have

power in the future.

Recent Capacity Market (CM) auctions reveal

a lower participation from unabated gas

plants. Despite this, these levels are higher

than that in NESO’s Clean Power 2030 advice

legal requirements to close or are

converting to gas with CCS.

Unabated gas capacity remains on the system operating at low load factors between 12-13% in the pathways in 2030.

Unabated gas capacity

Powering the System: Electricity SupplyFalling BehindHydrogen EvolutionElectric EngagementHolistic TransitionTen Year Forecast0102030405060202520302035204020452050GW148/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Electricity | Unabated gas (cont.)

Stakeholder views

How we addressed feedback

The majority of stakeholders acknowledged

We used NESO’s Clean Power 2030 analysis

that while levels of electricity from gas will

in our generation backgrounds, supported

reduce as the main source of dispatchable

by additional stakeholder engagement

power generation at the scale needed today,

and market intelligence. Beyond 2030,

it will still be required for SoS, filling shortfalls

we used our Capacity Expansion Model

during periods of low renewable output.

(CEM) for transmission to ensure SoS from

dispatchable gas generation. Our dispatch

model then assessed the utilisation rates with

different generation mixes.

What we modelled

Table 33: A list of key inputs and outputs from our FES 2025 models covering electricity supply from

unabated gas.

Modelling assumptions

Holistic Transition

Electric Engagement

Hydrogen Evolution

10 Year Forecast

Falling Behind

Transmission Entry Capacity and Embedded Capacity Register to 2030

47.2 GW

Max load factor in 2050

N/A

93%

92%

Unabated gas capacity in 2030

Unabated gas capacity in 2050

Beyond the model

31.2 GW

35.3 GW

36.0 GW 36.4 GW

46.3 GW

0.0 GW

6.3 GW

10.6 GW

N/A

45.2 GW

After 2030, unabated gas generation is used sparingly, primarily when renewable

output is low and demand is high, further reinforcing the need for government support.

Negative emissions technologies are used to offset emissions for remaining

unabated gas capacity on the system, which operates at low load factors.

Powering the System: Electricity Supply 149/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Bioenergy | Biomass power with carbon capture and storage

w e v r e v O

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage

The future role of BECCS was highlighted

for electricity generation (power BECCS),

in DESNZ’s Biomass Strategy 2023, which

plays an important role in our net zero

emphasised the importance of sustainability

pathways by providing negative carbon

with regards to any use of biomass. The

emissions to offset residual emissions in

strategy also outlined the governments

intention to consult and

develop a cross-sector

biomass sustainability

framework.

hard-to-decarbonise sectors.

Bioenergy plants provide a source of ancillary

services essential to the operation of a future

energy system dominated by renewables.

For those that suit CCS, high load factors will

remain desirable, but the role of biomass

(without CCS) should shift to dispatchable to

help meet demand during times of low wind

and solar output.

We assume conversion of biomass to BECCS beginning by 2030 in our pathways.

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage capacity

Powering the System: Electricity SupplyFalling BehindHydrogen EvolutionElectric EngagementHolistic TransitionTen Year Forecast012345202520302035204020452050GW150/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Bioenergy | Biomass power with carbon capture and storage (cont.)

Stakeholder views

How we addressed feedback

BECCS was cited as critical by a few

Power BECCS is a key technology to achieve

stakeholders for achieving net zero by

the Sixth and recommended Seventh Carbon

offsetting emissions. However, they also

Budgets, as well as net zero.

felt that the sector faces challenges such

as the need for policy and economic

support for CCS.

What we modelled

Table 34: A list of key inputs and outputs from our FES 2025 models covering electricity supply from

biomass and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage.

Modelling assumptions

Holistic Transition

Electric Engagement

Hydrogen Evolution

10 Year Forecast

Falling Behind

Max load factor in 2050

89%

90%

88%

N/A

87%

Installed capacity in 2030

0.6 GW

0.0 GW

Installed capacity in 2050

2.7 GW

4.2 GW

1.2 GW

N/A

0.6 GW

Beyond the model

Government consultations have confirmed that a dual CfD approach for both

electricity generation and carbon removal is preferred and economic incentives

for BECCS are provided to encourage widescale deployment. Some biomass power

stations convert to power BECCS and negative emissions technologies take high priority

for connection to CO2 networks.

Powering the System: Electricity Supply 151/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Fuelling the System

Gas | Gas supply, storage and networks

152

Gas | Biomethane

Hydrogen | Hydrogen supply

155

157

Hydrogen | Hydrogen storage and networks

161

Biomass | Biomass supply

163

152/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Gas | Gas supply, storage and networks

w e v r e v O

Natural gas plays an essential role in Great

gas reserves, however, are 20 years beyond

Britain’s energy system for power, heat

their peak production. The North Sea Transition

and industry. Our net zero pathways show

Authority’s latest assessment shows that there

a changing role for gas, with it principally

are limited proven and probable remaining

providing low carbon power flexibility and

UK gas reserves. This leaves our

low carbon hydrogen production.

current gas-heavy energy

Gas does remain part of the energy system

in all net zero the pathways out to 2050,

therefore future infrastructure and security of

supply requirements must be considered.

Great Britain has historically benefited from

a diverse range of gas supply sources,

supporting its energy security. Our domestic

system reliant on highly

flexible supply sources

being delivered when

we need it, without

being able to rely on

our historic baseload from the North Sea42.

In 2024, the largest single source of gas supply was Norway, accounting for 46% of gas supply

Gas supply mix by pathway

42 Reserves and Resources Report as at end 2023, North Sea Transition Authority, 22 Oct 2024

Fuelling the System015304560752024Holistic TransitionElectric EngagementHydrogen EvolutionFalling BehindTen Year ForecastHolistic TransitionElectric EngagementHydrogen EvolutionFalling BehindTen Year ForecastHolistic TransitionElectric EngagementHydrogen EvolutionFalling BehindHolistic TransitionElectric EngagementHydrogen EvolutionFalling Behind2030203520402050bcm/yrUK Continental ShelfBiomethaneNorwayContinentLNGGeneric Imports153/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Gas | Gas supply, storage and networks

(cont.)

Stakeholder views

How we addressed feedback

Stakeholders stated that gas will still be

All the pathways continue to use a range

a major energy vector over the near-to-

of gas sources to 2050. In addition,

medium horizon, and that infrastructure will

we have commissioned and utilised

be required into the future. Stakeholders

data from a new study on biomethane

noted that greater global supply

potential in Great Britain.

availability of LNG will be beneficial to

Great Britain as a gas importer.

What we modelled

Table 35: A list of key inputs and outputs from our FES 2025 models covering gas supply, storage

and networks.

Modelling assumptions

Holistic Transition

Electric Engagement

Hydrogen Evolution

10 Year Forecast

Falling Behind

Gas demand in 2035, as a percentage of 2024 gas demand

Gas demand in 2050, as a percentage of 2024 gas demand

Gas import volume in 2050 in bcm (2024 = 41 bcm)

Gas storage

Gas networks

63%

66%

74%

88%

93%

23%

22%

54%

N/A

86%

8.3

29.3

14.1

N/A

52.7

All pathways, Falling Behind and Ten Year Forecast assume a continued availability of gas storage to 2050, though we do not directly model future gas storage needs and requirements.

All pathways, Falling Behind and Ten Year Forecast assume a continued presence of a gas transmission network to 2050.

Fuelling the System154/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Gas | Gas supply, storage and networks

(cont.)

Imported gas volumes by pathway

Beyond the model

Natural gas has a role in the future energy system across all our net zero pathways.

Strategic energy planning clarifies how this role will be maintained alongside

supplying low carbon hydrogen. All the net zero pathways utilise both hydrogen and

natural gas concurrently to 2050. Strategic planning will help us understand where,

when, and how this relationship between gas and hydrogen will develop across Great

Britain to 2050.

Gas production from the UK Continental Shelf continues to decline but remains part

of the wider gas supply mix energy security is tested against. But meeting demand

will always need additional imports as remaining proven and probable domestic gas

reserves cannot meet current or future needs.

As gas remains part of the energy system to 2050, SoS needs to be maintained.

We need to efficiently manage our sources of gas and critical supporting infrastructure

such as pipelines, LNG terminals and storage locations to 2050. NESO will be publishing

our Gas Supply Security Assessment later in 2025.

Fuelling the SystemFalling BehindHydrogen EvolutionElectric EngagementHolistic TransitionHistoricalTen Year Forecast01530456020152020202520302035204020452050Bcm/yr155/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Gas | Biomethane

w e v r e v O

Biomethane is produced from the anaerobic

CO2 emissions arising from biomethane use

digestion of biomass (such as agricultural

are derived from biogenic waste that would

wastes, crops, or sewage) into biogas which

otherwise have decomposed into methane.

is a mixture of methane and CO2.

The UK currently has over 100

The CO2 is separated and removed, and

the methane is conditioned to meet

standards for injection into gas distribution

or transmission networks. This provides a

low carbon alternative to natural gas, as the

facilities that upgrade biogas

to biomethane and inject it

into the gas grid.

In 2024, 5.5 TWh of biomethane was injected into the British gas grid.

Biomethane supply

Fuelling the SystemFalling BehindTen Year ForecastHolistic TransitionElectric EngagementHydrogen Evolution0%10%20%30%40%50%02468202520302035204020452050Biomethane as % of total gas supplybcm/yrSolid lines indicate supplyDashed lines indicate % of total gas supply156/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Gas | Biomethane (cont.)

Stakeholder views

How we addressed feedback

Many stakeholders suggested that there

We commissioned an independent analysis

was potential for greater biomethane supply

of biomethane potential in Great Britain out

than utilised in FES 2024, particularly as

to 2050, which has informed our pathway

hydrogen production prices are higher than

utilisation of the fuel.

anticipated earlier this decade, which may

otherwise limit the rate at which gas users

decarbonise by switching to hydrogen. Long-

term support mechanisms for biomethane

would reduce uncertainty and improve

investment in the sector.

What we modelled

Table 36: A list of key outputs from our FES 2025 models covering supply from biomethane.

Modelling assumptions

Holistic Transition

Electric Engagement

Hydrogen Evolution

10 Year Forecast

Falling Behind

Biomethane supply by 2035

36 TWh

2 TWh

25 TWh

21 TWh

17 TWh

Biomethane supply by 2050

64 TWh

0 TWh

57 TWh

N/A

35 TWh

Beyond the model

Certainty around a long-term support mechanism incentivises greater biomethane

production. Long term support mechanisms, beyond the Green Gas Support Scheme

ending in 2028, will ensure a consistent pipeline of new production projects.

Clarity around the role of future low carbon gaseous fuel networks. Use of biomethane

implies continued availability of gas networks – these will be utilised by a smaller

number of users over time. A clearer vision is needed about the scale and role of

biomethane in the future and what this means for optimal use of gas infrastructure.

Fuelling the System157/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Hydrogen | Hydrogen supply

w e v r e v O

Low carbon hydrogen supply is utilised in

fuelled by otherwise curtailed renewable

all the net zero pathways and is prioritised

generation, offering a route to long term

towards users and sectors with few

energy storage. This can be used to

alternatives for decarbonisation.

balance demand, be it baseload demand

Great Britain has a deep pipeline of low

carbon hydrogen supply projects, though no

from industry or flexible demand, such as

dispatchable hydrogen power generation.

large-scale hydrogen projects have reached

The pathways use multiple approaches to

final investment decision in Great Britain

produce hydrogen. Predominantly, these are

as of June 2025. Higher than anticipated

methane reformation to turn methane (CH4)

costs, lack of off-takers and lack of enabling

into hydrogen, then capturing and storing

infrastructure have all limited development of

most of the CO2 emissions from the process

initial hydrogen supply projects.

and electrolysis to split water molecules into

In addition to decarbonising energy demand,

hydrogen supply plays an important role in

the broader whole energy system picture.

Electrolytic hydrogen production is often

hydrogen and oxygen using electricity. The

pathways also use limited amounts of other

approaches such as biomass gasification and

high-temperature nuclear electrolysis.

Hydrogen supply by pathway

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Hydrogen | Hydrogen supply (cont.)

Stakeholder views

How we addressed feedback

Stakeholders highlighted the higher-than-

Future supply needs of hydrogen out to 2050

anticipated costs of initial hydrogen projects,

have reduced across all pathways. A large

and the general lack of clarity for long-term

part of this is because of reduced needs

support mechanisms. They suggested that

in shipping and aviation. We have utilised

hydrogen will play a role in the future of Great

demand for these sectors from the Climate

Britain’s energy system, but that natural gas and

Change Committee’s (CCC) recently published

biomethane will be essential in the near-to-

recommended Seventh Carbon Budget, where

medium term. Some stakeholders felt that Great

the assumption is that these fuels are largely

Britain should promote the trade of hydrogen,

produced abroad and imported.

harnessing future renewables capacity.

What we modelled

Table 37: A list of key inputs and outputs from our FES 2025 models covering supply from hydrogen.

Modelling assumptions

Holistic Transition

Electric Engagement

Hydrogen Evolution

10 Year Forecast

Falling Behind

Hydrogen supply in 2035

33 TWh HHV 15 TWh HHV 91 TWh HHV 19 TWh HHV

2 TWh HHV

Total hydrogen production capacity in 2050

Imports and exports of hydrogen

22 GW

19 GW

58 GW

7.1 GW (in 2035)

4.8 GW

Not modelled, due to significant amounts of uncertainty around available volumes, locations, and enabling infrastructure

Under Construction 448 MW Others:

Final Investment Decision: 205 MW

Completed: 21 MW

Planning Approved 764 MW

Planning Pending 2,695 MW

Low carbon

hydrogen production projects by development stage

Scoping

47,763 MW

Source: NESO data as of June 2025

57% of proposed green hydrogen capacity is in Northern Scotland (23 GW out of 40.5 GW).

15.8 GW of blue hydrogen capacity has been proposed. Of this, Yorkshire has the highest share at 5.5 GW, followed by Merseyside and North Wales (2.6 GW).

Fuelling the System159/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Hydrogen | Hydrogen supply (cont.)

Hydrogen supply breakdown in each pathway, Ten Year Forecast and Falling Behind

Holistic Transition

Electric Engagement

Hydrogen Evolution

Falling Behind

Ten Year Forecast

The largest low carbon hydrogen project current in construction is the NEOM project in Saudi Arabia, which will produce 600 tonnes per day of green hydrogen for ammonia production, when operational in 2026.

The project will have 2.2 GW of electrolysers power by 4 GW of renewable electricity from wind and solar.

Fuelling the SystemMethane reformation with CCUSNetworked electrolysisNon-networked electrolysisBiomass gasification0501001502002503003502020202520302035204020452050TWh (HHV)Methane reformation with CCUSNetworked electrolysisNon-networked electrolysisBiomass gasificationNuclear electrolysis0501001502002503003502020202520302035204020452050TWh (HHV)Methane reformation with CCUSNetworked electrolysis0501001502002503003502020202520302035204020452050TWh (HHV)Methane reformation with CCUSNetworked electrolysis0501001502002503003502020202520302035204020452050TWh (HHV)Methane reformation with CCUSNetworked electrolysis0501001502002503003502020202520302035204020452050TWh (HHV)160/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Hydrogen | Hydrogen supply (cont.)

Hydrogen production capacity by pathway

Beyond the model

Whole system strategic planning can bring clarity to where, when, and how gaseous fuels will

interact. Gas, biomethane and hydrogen will all be present until 2050. Users shouldn’t be left unsure

if there will be hydrogen available, or if they need to pursue alternatives. Strategic energy planning

should clarify how these gaseous fuels will interact with each other and the wider energy system.

Support initial hydrogen production projects, focusing on cases where off-takers have few

to no alternative options. Projects that succeeded under Hydrogen Allocation Round 1 (HAR 1)

at the end of 2023 have not reached final investment decision, though such decisions may be forthcoming.

The outcomes of HAR 2 are yet to be announced, but 27 projects have been shortlisted as of April 2025.

Given the high cost of low carbon hydrogen production, support should be prioritised for users with little

to no alternative to decarbonise. This may be due to factors such as hydrogen being essential to their

process, or site configuration considerations that would limit other retrofit opportunities. The government have announced plans for HAR3 to run in 2026 and HAR4 to run in 202843.

Continued investment in research and development for the effective production, usage, transport and

storage of hydrogen for use-cases where there are no alternative. The UK government has provided

significant support into research and development for hydrogen production and utilisation, largely via

the Net Zero Innovation Portfolio. Examples include the Industrial Fuel Switching programme, the Industrial

Hydrogen Accelerator programme, and the Hydrogen BECCS Innovation programme. Low carbon

hydrogen remains a relatively nascent sector with key future end users who have little alternative to

hydrogen for decarbonisation.

43 Clean Energy Industries Sector Plan, Gov.uk, 23 June 2025

Fuelling the System020406080Holistic TransitionElectric EngagementHydrogen EvolutionHolistic TransitionElectric EngagementHydrogen EvolutionHolistic TransitionElectric EngagementHydrogen EvolutionHolistic TransitionElectric EngagementHydrogen EvolutionHolistic TransitionElectric EngagementHydrogen Evolution20302035204020452050GWMethane reformation with CCUSNetworked electrolysisNon-networked electrolysisBiomass gasificationNuclear electrolysisElectrolysisprovides a significant proportion of hydrogen production capacity in all pathways, but production volumes are more evenly balanced between electrolysis and methane reformation.161/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Hydrogen | Hydrogen storage and networks

Hydrogen storage and networks will

elsewhere. Large-scale hydrogen storage

be essential for any widespread use of

will be required to ensure security of supply

hydrogen, particularly for seasonal ‘users’

through periods of low renewable generation.

such as dispatchable power generation.

As an example of the scale of proposed

w e v r e v O

Initial hydrogen projects in the pathways

largely colocate supply and demand. In the

long term, the pathways show significant

amounts of hydrogen produced using

otherwise curtailed wind resource, largely in

Scotland. This will necessitate a transmission

network to move hydrogen to end users

Hydrogen storage capacity requirements

hydrogen storage projects, the

Keuper Gas Storage project

in Chesire would offer the

equivalent of 1.3 TWh of

hydrogen storage and is

currently in its front-end

engineering design phase.

Hydrogen Transmission Flows

25 GWh of hydrogen salt cavern storage has been operational in Teesside since the 1970s.

Offshore wind

Electrolytic hydrogen

Hydrogen storage

Carbon capture and storage enabled hydrogen

Fuelling the System01020304050202520302035204020452050TWh (HHV)Holistic TransitionElectric EngagementHydrogen EvolutionFalling BehindTen Year ForecastH2O2H2O2H2O2H2O2H2O2H2O2H2O2H2H2H2H2H2O2H2O2H2O2H2O2H2O2H2O2H2O2H2H2H2H2H2O2H2O2H2O2H2O2H2O2H2O2H2O2H2H2H2H2H2O2H2O2H2O2H2O2H2O2H2O2H2O2H2H2H2H2H2O2H2O2H2O2H2O2H2O2H2O2H2O2H2H2H2H2162/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Hydrogen | Hydrogen storage and networks (cont.)

Stakeholder views

How we addressed feedback

Stakeholders highlighted the high degree

We assume the development of a hydrogen

of uncertainty around hydrogen network

transmission network at different points in

infrastructure, both “where and when”, as

time, alongside sufficient storage capacity

well as how it may function alongside the

to balance seasonal variations in hydrogen

continued use of gas.

demand.

What we modelled

Table 38: A list of key inputs and outputs from our FES 2025 models covering hydrogen storage and networks.

Modelling assumptions

Holistic Transition

Electric Engagement

Hydrogen Evolution

10 Year Forecast

Falling Behind

Hydrogen networks

Transmission network necessary from 2035, plus industrial cluster networks. Additional availability of hydrogen for district heating schemes around industrial clusters.

Transmission network necessary from 2035, plus industrial cluster networks.

Transmission network necessary from 2032, plus expanding national availability of hydrogen for domestic heating.

Colocated hydrogen supply/demand projects and localised cluster networks only.

Hydrogen storage capacity in 2035

Hydrogen storage capacity in 2050

Beyond the model

3 TWh

2 TWh

12 TWh

2 TWh

12 TWh

10 TWh

39 TWh

N/A

2 TWh

Clarify where and when a hydrogen transmission network will be available, while

gas continues to be a key energy vector. Hydrogen suppliers and end users need to

understand this to develop their decarbonisation plans. Equally, government direction

on the usage of hydrogen for heating will clarify hydrogen demand and future needs

for hydrogen network development. The governments planned consultation in 2026 on transitioning the gas system may also aid with this44.

Developing a suitable pipeline of large-scale hydrogen storage facilities. Large-

scale salt cavern storage projects can have lead times of 7–10 years from initiation to

operation. A suitable pipeline of projects needs to be developed to ensure hydrogen

security of supply in the future. The governments planned hydrogen transportation and storage allocation round 1 in 2026 can begin to develop this pipeline45.

44 Midstream gas system: update to the market, Gov. uk, 30 June 2025

45 Clean Energy Industries Sector Plan, Gov.uk, 23 June 2025

Fuelling the System

163/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Biomass | Biomass supply

w e v r e v O

Biomass is currently a key part of Great

Currently, large amounts of biomass are used for

Britain’s renewable energy supply.

power generation, heating and for liquid biofuels

The overall supply and use of biomass in the

pathways in 2050 remains broadly similar

to levels of usage today; however, the types

of biomass utilised and the technologies in

which they are used will change significantly.

blended into road transport fuels. As we move

towards net zero in the pathways, biomass is

increasingly used to produce biomethane, for

engineered carbon removals with BECCS and the

production of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF).

Biomass supply source breakdown by pathway in 2050

The UK is a significant importer of wood pellets for power and of forestry products in general.

In 2024,we imported 9.3 million tonnes of wood pellets, 5.2 million tonnes of pulp and paper, 3.1 million cubic metres of wood-based panels, 6.7 million cubic metres of sawn wood, and 1.9 million cubic metres of other wood.

Forest Research 2024 Provisional Figures

Stakeholder views

How we addressed feedback

Stakeholders emphasised the need to

We don’t currently model biomass supply,

consider biomass sustainability. Other

instead utilising published data from various

stakeholders highlighted the broad range

external organisations (primarily by the CCC),

of opportunities for biomass utilisation,

but recognise the importance of biomass

such as biomethane production and

sustainability for ongoing use. The use of

sustainable aviation fuels.

engineered carbon removals from biomass

is seen as essential across all pathways to

achieve net zero.

Fuelling the System050100150200250HolisticTransitionElectricEngagementHydrogenEvolutionFalling BehindTWh (HHV)MSW, C&I (biogenic)Waste woodWaste biodiesel, bioethanolBiomass importsAgri residuesEnergy cropsBiogasBiofuel importsForest residues050100150200250HolisticTransitionElectricEngagementHydrogenEvolutionCounterfactualTWh (HHV)MSW, C&I (biogenic)Waste woodWaste biodiesel, bioethanolBiomass importsAgri residuesEnergy cropsBiogasBiofuel importsForest residues164/FES 2025/Pathway Insights

Biomass | Biomass supply (cont.) What we modelled

Table 39: A list of key inputs and outputs from our FES 2025 models covering supply from biomass.

Modelling assumptions

Holistic Transition

Electric Engagement

Hydrogen Evolution

10 Year Forecast

Falling Behind

Biomass total supply in 2050

Biomass supply for power sector in 2050

Biomass import percentage in 2050

216 TWh HHV 191 TWh HHV 173 TWh HHV

N/A

114 TWh HHV

73 TWh HHV 113 TWh HHV 37 TWh HHV

N/A

13 TWh HHV

16%

31%

N/A

Breakdown of 2023 biomass supply by source and location

Beyond the model

Bring clarity to biomass supply sustainability. UK Government’s Biomass Strategy 2023

outlined their intention to consult and develop a cross-sector biomass sustainability framework.

Such a framework is necessary to ensure the responsible use of biomass across all sectors.

Create a clear pathway to having the right kind of domestic feedstock, in the right location,

at the right time. Our pathways use high levels of domestically grown feedstock, in particular

energy crops (700,000 hectares by 2050), as per data from the CCC. At present, there are

around 10,000 hectares of energy crops in Great Britain, an amount that hasn’t changed in over a decade.

Moreover, much of the underlying modelling for biomass feedstock potential in Great Britain, particularly

energy crops, was performed by others and dates back to over 10 years ago. It is important to have a clear

spatial pathway of where and when different domestic feedstocks will need to be planted to meet end

user needs, without compromising the needs of other sectors (such as farming and timber) or other goals,

such as those around biodiversity. Not all biomass users can utilise all types of biomass, a factor made

more difficult when users must also consider where, when and how much feedstock is needed.

Fuelling the System020406080WastewoodWoodPlantbiomassAnimalbiomassAnaerobicdigestionSewagegasLandfill gasRenewablewasteLiquidbiofuelsTWh (HHV)Domestic productionImportsMinus exports and transfersSource: DUKES 2024165/FES 2025/Appendix

Appendix Future Energy Scenarios and Strategic Energy Planning

The SSEP will plan across Great Britain and zonally map capacities of generation and storage of hydrogen

and electricity infrastructure. It will establish a single generation and demand pathway to 2050, selected

by the Secretary of State and co-optimised with high-level network needs. More information on the SSEP is

available on our website.

The CSNP will plan the network in anticipation of the future customer connections that will be informed

by the energy needs identified in the SSEP. Driven by the SSEP, it will plan the wider network strategically

and in anticipation of future customers. The network design will also be tested against FES. This will stress-

test the network design against a range of credible futures to provide confidence on the needs case of

required reinforcements. FES will enable modelling of multiple long-term strategic energy pathways that

will highlight what must happen across the energy vectors to enable net zero.

The RESPs will develop bottom-up regional plans at distribution level that span across all energy vectors.

NESO will be producing RESPs across the 11 nations and regions defined by Ofgem. These are set out in

Ofgem’s RESP Framework Policy decision (April 2025). The RESP boundaries have been developed through

consideration of cross-vector planning potential, sufficiency of scale, fullness of Great Britain’s coverage

and, critically, being deliverable at pace.

FES and SSEP

While FES complements the SSEP, providing additional data that is utilised by the programmes and

ensuring a range of outcomes are considered in downstream network planning, the scope and inputs/

assumptions of the pathways differ in some key areas in this first cycle:

FES

SSEP

Electricity supply

Hydrogen supply

Gas supply

Bioenergy supply

Whole system emissions modelling

Single planning pathway

Fully cost optimised pathway(s)

FES sector demand projections

FES locational demand data

DESNZ demand projections

Environmental assessment

Geospatial assessment

Extensive cross-sector stakeholder engagement

166/FES 2025/Appendix

FES is produced under the electricity system operator and the gas system planner licences held by NESO

as issued by Ofgem in accordance with Ofgem’s Future Energy Pathways Guidance document. The SSEP is

commissioned by UK, Scottish and Welsh Governments and overseen by Ofgem.

A key difference between FES and SSEP is the demand data against which the electricity supply modelling

is optimised. FES is based on NESO demand analysis built up by sector, while SSEP is commissioned to use

DESNZ demand data. SSEP does, however, incorporate the locational demand splits produced by FES. NESO

and DESNZ have worked closely to understand differences in demand projections.

While FES and SSEP use the same model for electricity capacity expansion, the SSEP will optimise the build-

out of interconnectors and co-optimise the development of hydrogen and electricity.

Weekly sessions between FES and SSEP teams have been held to run through modelling improvements

or challenges, understanding differences and sharing of outputs as part of established challenge and

review processes as set out in the FES methodology document. Both processes also have their own internal

Steering Committees, which each include senior manager representation from the other team.

FES and RESP

FES provides regional breakdowns of national data through top-down analysis. These were intended to

provide additional clarity for stakeholders on alignment of FES and Regional Distribution Future Energy

Scenarios (DFES) produced by Distribution Network Operators. They are not intended to be used for the

creation of regional pathways.

The first RESPs are expected to be published in late 2027. However, to support the upcoming electricity

distribution price control (ED3), a transitional RESP output will be consulted on in September 2025 and

published in January 2026. The tRESP output will include regional conditions and priorities, identified areas

of strategic need, modelled short-term and long-term pathways and consistent planning assumptions.

The baseline for the tRESP pathways outputs is a new bottom-up disaggregation of FES 2025 at a very local

level which is then reaggregated to Grid Supply Point (GSP) feeding area. Public

Milestones

SEP high level milestones*

2025

2026

2027

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

Future Energy Scenarios (FES)

Strategic Spatial Energy Plan (SSEP)

Publication

Methodology published

Ongoing and iterative Stakeholder engagement

Draft SSEP consultation

Final plan publication

Regional Energy Strategic Planner (RESP)

Ofgem policy decision

Transitional RESP output to inform distribution network business plans (known as RIIO-ED3)

Regional plans published x11 (Q4)

Transitional Centralised Strategic Network Plan Refresh

Centralised Strategic Network Plan

Methodology submitted to Ofgem

Publication

Methodology published

Publication (Q4)

*dates subject to change; not all methodologies may be public

167/FES 2025/Appendix

The future of FES

Once the SSEP and the RESPs are in place, the role of the FES will continue to

ensure that NESO maintains an independent view on the range of options,

trade-offs, risks and opportunities that exist for the future of energy, and their

implications across the whole energy system. There are numerous downstream

processes, including those relating to gas security of supply and the Electricity

Capacity Report, which will continue to rely on our pathways and forecasts.

It is our intention that the inputs to FES 2028 will broaden to include learnings

from, and elements of, SSEP and RESP, such that we can continue to iterate

across the programmes over the three-year cycle and continuously improve

the assumptions that underlie FES and the value this can add to the sector and,

ultimately, consumers.

2050

2030

2040

Today

Foundation

168/FES 2025/Glossary

Glossary

Acronym Description

10YF

ACS

ASHP

BCM

BECCS

BUS

CBAM

CCC

CCS

CEM

CfD

CH4

CO2

Ten Year Forecast

Average cold spell

Air source heat pump

Billions cubic metres

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage

Boiler Upgrade Scheme

Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism

Climate Change Committee

Carbon capture and storage

Capacity Expansion Model

Contracts for Difference

Methane

Capacity Market

Carbon Dioxide

CSNP

Centralised Strategic Network Plan

DACCS

DESNZ

DPA

DSR

ETS

FES

FID

GISP

GSHP

GSP

GWh

GVA

H2P

HAR

HGV

I&C

ICE

Direct air carbon capture and storage

Department for Energy Security and Net Zero

Dispatchable Power Agreements

Demand side response

Emissions Trading Scheme

Electric Vehicle

Future Energy Scenarios

Final investment decision

Great Britain

Gigawatt

Gas Insulated Switchgear Project

Ground source heat pump

Grid supply point

Gigawatt-hour

Gross added value

Hydrogen to power

Hydrogen Allocation Round

Heavy goods vehicle

Industrial and commercial

Internal combustion engine

Acronym Description

LNG

LDES

LULUCF

MHHS

MtCO2e

NESO

NZIP

NDC

NTS

Liquefied natural gas

Long-duration energy storage

Land use, land-use change and forestry

Market-wide Half-Hourly Settlement

Metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent

Megawatt

National Energy System Operator

Net Zero Innovation Portfolio

Nationally Determined Contribution

National Transmission Network

Ofgem

Office of Gas and Electricity Markets

ONS

Office for National Statistics

PHEVs

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle

RESP

SAF

SCOP

SMR

SoS

SSEP

tCO2/yr

TWh

Photovoltaic

Regional Energy Strategic Planner

Sustainable aviation fuel

Seasonal coefficient of performance

Small Modular Reactor

Security of Supply

Strategic Spatial Energy Plan

Tonnes of carbon dioxide per year

Terawatt hour

TWh HHV

Terawatt-hour Higher Heating Value

UNFCCC

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland

UKCS

UK Continental Shelf

V2G

V2H

ZEV

Vehicle-to-grid

Vehicle-to-home

Zero Emission Vehicle

169/FES 2025/Legal Statement

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While NESO has not sought to mislead any person as to the contents of this document and whilst such

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Other than in the event of fraudulent misstatement or fraudulent misrepresentation, NESO does not accept

any responsibility for any use which is made of the information contained within this document.

170/FES 2025/Legal Statement

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